View Plans & Pricing

If you are signed in and are seeing this message, please be sure you have selected a user name in My Profile. The forum requires it.
A A A
Search

— Forum Scope —




— Match —





— Forum Options —





Minimum search word length is 3 characters - maximum search word length is 84 characters

Topic Rating: 1 Topic Rating: 1 Topic Rating: 1 Topic Rating: 1 Topic Rating: 1 Topic Rating: 1 (4 votes) 
sp_TopicIcon
Folding TT :/
Begunner
Lighting Money On Fire
Members
Forum Posts: 23
Member Since:
January 28, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
1
January 31, 2014 - 10:07 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Hi guys,

 

need help on this one

 

…..AEE1EA2789

 

I´m getting a great price to call i guess but the stats of player 1 are 12/8 in 219 hands and he did not played hand in this tourney. The other guy had stats of 66/11 (lol…it would be an insta call for sure). 

 

Since it was the beggining of this sit&go i felt like i could pass this one… what do you guys think?

 

Tx 

 

Cheers

Casino_Inferno
Home Game Champ
Members
Forum Posts: 36
Member Since:
January 16, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
2
January 31, 2014 - 1:14 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
1

Tens are a trouble hand for me too. I’m really interested in what some of the better players on the forum say about this one. It’s really easy to be bummed from a result oriented perspective. I’m inclined to say you made the right choice. Since im terrible with the math of the game would be nice to see if the numbers warrants a call at that price..

WizardZur
High Stakes Shark
Members
Forum Posts: 172
Member Since:
November 22, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
3
January 31, 2014 - 1:26 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
1

It's not terribly difficult to calculate your odds versus your opponent's range using pokerstove.  All that it would require are some assumptions on your part.  For example, one of the players has a very wide range probably consisting of KJ+, any ace, and any pair.  Even if the other player has tight stats, I would be reluctant to reason that, “he hasn't played a hand yet so he must have aces”.  Even the tightest opponent will try to get it in with AK this short stacked.  You also have to decide whether he would get it in with 99 and below.  I think your hand probably has sufficient equity against your opponent's ranges to warrant a call; however, I can also envision scenarios where the tight opponent has JJ+ and the looser one has over cards.  As it stands, you have about 40% equity in the pot against AK from one opponent and AJ from the other, making the fold marginally bad.  On the other hand, you do not want to be results oriented, and I can see why you would think that one of them probably had an overpair.  IMO it was a marginal fold, but could go either way.   

gtw
Calgary, AB
Flounder
Members
Forum Posts: 6
Member Since:
January 12, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
4
January 31, 2014 - 2:26 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
1

I'm folding this,

 

Even if you get overly generous with their ranges you only end up with the smallest edge.  Player 1 is mostly just flatting with the hands that you beat 99-, AQ-, and he'll shove everything better. So I'd give him JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ to be generous.  He gets 45% equity.

 

Player 2 might have a wide range, but he is 66/11, not 100/11.  He is capable of folding, so I think the rest of his range will still have ~25% equity in this hand.  Even if we say he called this super strong 3-bet overshove with 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,A8o+,KJo+ (which is overly wide) that would give him ~22% equity.

 

If these are their ranges this leaves you with ~33%, which makes this only about breakeven, and super high variance.  When a guy is 66/11 it means he is loose, but he won't call 66% against the action he was facing.

 

If it were me, this is where I think I'm at:

 

Hero: TT –  (27.7%)

Player 1: JJ+, AQs+,AKo – (47%)

Player 2: 55+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AJo+,KQo – (25.3%)

 

–forgot AKo for player 1, still a fold 🙂

Begunner
Lighting Money On Fire
Members
Forum Posts: 23
Member Since:
January 28, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
5
February 1, 2014 - 9:48 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Tx guys… and yeah gtw… i felt like i was maybe ahead of player 2 but bad against Player 1 range!

WizardZur
High Stakes Shark
Members
Forum Posts: 172
Member Since:
November 22, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
6
February 1, 2014 - 11:49 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
1

One thing also to consider is the metagame implications of a call.  I don't think this arises in turbos, SNGs, etc but is something to keep in mind.  A lot of the time in the early stages of tournaments, you will be faced with scenarios where you think you are ahead, but cannot be certain, and will have to make a decision that could lose all of your chips.  In these situations sometimes it is best to wait for a better spot.  For example, let's say it is the first orbit of the WSOP main event and you are dealt QQ.  You raise 4xBB and someone just shoves over the top.  Hypothetically, let's say he shows you AKo, so you know what he has.  Mathematically, it is a fairly easy call if you view the hand in isolation.  You are slightly ahead and there is money in the pot.  However, doubling up will not actually double your chances of making a run in the tournament because there is so much poker left to be played.  Losing the hand will drop your chances of winning to 0%.  So from a metagame perspective it is actually an easy fold.  Not to mention that in this hypothetical, you know what your opponent has, and in reality you wouldn't suspect AK you would suspect AA.  Phil Helmuth even said that he would fold AA in the early stages of a tournament to an all in bet because he would suspect someone else would only be willing to get it all in if he had AA as well, but also because he thinks that the 20% chance of you losing to a set if your opponent had KK, is not worth the 80% of doubling up.  I know that this scenario is very different from the one I'm describing, but the point remains.  Now if you drop your hand value from QQ all the way down to 1010 you can see that it's ok to fold.  Purely from a mathematical perspective, you could call or fold, it's probably close.  But from a metagame perspective, you should probably just fold, especially if you think you have an edge over the field.

ttwist

TPE Pro

TPE Management
Forum Posts: 1230
Member Since:
July 20, 2010
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
7
February 1, 2014 - 12:42 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

forum test

Forum Timezone: America/New_York

Most Users Ever Online: 2780

Currently Online:
10 Guest(s)

Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)

Top Posters:

bennymacca: 2616

Foucault: 2067

folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133

praetor: 1033

theginger45: 924

P-aire 146: 832

Turbulence: 768

The Riceman: 731

duggs: 591

florianm1: 588

Newest Members:

Tillery999

sdmathis89

ne0x00

adrianvaida2525

Anteeater

Laggro

Forum Stats:

Groups: 4

Forums: 24

Topics: 12705

Posts: 75003

 

Member Stats:

Guest Posters: 1063

Members: 12008

Moderators: 2

Admins: 5

Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos

Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1