January 28, 2014
Hi guys,
need help on this one
I´m getting a great price to call i guess but the stats of player 1 are 12/8 in 219 hands and he did not played hand in this tourney. The other guy had stats of 66/11 (lol…it would be an insta call for sure).
Since it was the beggining of this sit&go i felt like i could pass this one… what do you guys think?
Tx
Cheers
January 16, 2014
Tens are a trouble hand for me too. I’m really interested in what some of the better players on the forum say about this one. It’s really easy to be bummed from a result oriented perspective. I’m inclined to say you made the right choice. Since im terrible with the math of the game would be nice to see if the numbers warrants a call at that price..
November 22, 2013
It's not terribly difficult to calculate your odds versus your opponent's range using pokerstove. All that it would require are some assumptions on your part. For example, one of the players has a very wide range probably consisting of KJ+, any ace, and any pair. Even if the other player has tight stats, I would be reluctant to reason that, “he hasn't played a hand yet so he must have aces”. Even the tightest opponent will try to get it in with AK this short stacked. You also have to decide whether he would get it in with 99 and below. I think your hand probably has sufficient equity against your opponent's ranges to warrant a call; however, I can also envision scenarios where the tight opponent has JJ+ and the looser one has over cards. As it stands, you have about 40% equity in the pot against AK from one opponent and AJ from the other, making the fold marginally bad. On the other hand, you do not want to be results oriented, and I can see why you would think that one of them probably had an overpair. IMO it was a marginal fold, but could go either way.
January 12, 2014
I'm folding this,
Even if you get overly generous with their ranges you only end up with the smallest edge. Player 1 is mostly just flatting with the hands that you beat 99-, AQ-, and he'll shove everything better. So I'd give him JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ to be generous. He gets 45% equity.
Player 2 might have a wide range, but he is 66/11, not 100/11. He is capable of folding, so I think the rest of his range will still have ~25% equity in this hand. Even if we say he called this super strong 3-bet overshove with 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,A8o+,KJo+ (which is overly wide) that would give him ~22% equity.
If these are their ranges this leaves you with ~33%, which makes this only about breakeven, and super high variance. When a guy is 66/11 it means he is loose, but he won't call 66% against the action he was facing.
If it were me, this is where I think I'm at:
Hero: TT – (27.7%)
Player 1: JJ+, AQs+,AKo – (47%)
Player 2: 55+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AJo+,KQo – (25.3%)
–forgot AKo for player 1, still a fold 🙂
November 22, 2013
One thing also to consider is the metagame implications of a call. I don't think this arises in turbos, SNGs, etc but is something to keep in mind. A lot of the time in the early stages of tournaments, you will be faced with scenarios where you think you are ahead, but cannot be certain, and will have to make a decision that could lose all of your chips. In these situations sometimes it is best to wait for a better spot. For example, let's say it is the first orbit of the WSOP main event and you are dealt QQ. You raise 4xBB and someone just shoves over the top. Hypothetically, let's say he shows you AKo, so you know what he has. Mathematically, it is a fairly easy call if you view the hand in isolation. You are slightly ahead and there is money in the pot. However, doubling up will not actually double your chances of making a run in the tournament because there is so much poker left to be played. Losing the hand will drop your chances of winning to 0%. So from a metagame perspective it is actually an easy fold. Not to mention that in this hypothetical, you know what your opponent has, and in reality you wouldn't suspect AK you would suspect AA. Phil Helmuth even said that he would fold AA in the early stages of a tournament to an all in bet because he would suspect someone else would only be willing to get it all in if he had AA as well, but also because he thinks that the 20% chance of you losing to a set if your opponent had KK, is not worth the 80% of doubling up. I know that this scenario is very different from the one I'm describing, but the point remains. Now if you drop your hand value from QQ all the way down to 1010 you can see that it's ok to fold. Purely from a mathematical perspective, you could call or fold, it's probably close. But from a metagame perspective, you should probably just fold, especially if you think you have an edge over the field.
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
10 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1