Personally can't see myself laying this down given your stack size. Maybe close to the bubble, I could see myself folding. Sure she could be limping a monster, but from what you've said she can be limping worse. 

If you jam an UTG limper, then your hand looks extremely strong and GG if someone wakes up with the few hands that can call you. It would be hard for her to call with AQ.

A 3 bet to induce would also look very strong, but you run the risk of someone flatting and then playing JJ post flop with your stack size, in or OOP, just don't like it. Jam it and grit your teeth.

Saying all that, if somehow you got a read on the table dynamics and your poker instinct says to fold, then can't argue with your fold. You were there, you got some sort of read pre flop then heck how can anyone really argue with your read.

I thought I was going to read that you raised then folded to the utg limper's 3 bet. I am kinda thrown off by the JJ fold after a limp. How was the table flow?

Well done, your read and “poker instinct” was correct, so congrats and great fold.

oh dw my normal play is to snap in my stack. cause normally they will call off light. but it was jsut a sick feeling this hand and decided to fold based on what other players were doing

hmmm the right play imo ofcourse is shoving it in.

the only way i lay this hand down is if I really know this utglimper pretty well and i have a read he just does this with QQ+,AK.

but grats you had the right feeling

No antes I assume?

If you're really reading her range to be that strong, limping behind seems reasonable to me, with the intent of calling off shoves from LAGs behind or playing postflop IP against OP.

If there are antes it seems really bad to not ship or raise/call.

Never openfolding though.

I think you have to raise and call it off to a 3bet jam with 20bb in alot of spots…..thats some pretty sick read that i'm sure that over your(and many others) lifespan have had “that feeling” only a very few hands in this spot.  If she is mega-nitty and limp-shoving, i may find a fold and leave my self a reshove stack of 17-17.5BB, but will be inclined to call it off(assuming everyone else folds behind me).  In your given hand, with a limp(thats prob weak) I'm raising 2.5-3x, and my hand actually become pretty easy to play with the jam and rejam after me(prob a fold depending on your reads of the two jammers).  Now, we know your lady friend is bad, and you can use your reshove stack to abuse her in BVB and reshove situations to chip up off by exploiting her bad plays(limping AQ utg is what bad live regs do, not what good players do). So by giving up 2.5 bb, we actually gain alot of information that will help us gain chips in +ev spots in future hands.  I mean, yeah, you save one BB by folding so pat on the back, but 17.5bb vs 20bb is not really that different-essentially all you have is a re-shove stack and wont be screwing around with hands that dont play well post-flop.  GL and nice soul-read/jedi-mind trick fold though-lolz.

Donskey said:

I suppose we would like everything to be ABC and 123, and in most spots, working out the EV determines our decision.

 

But in reality especially in live tourneys, how can you quantify reads? what value can you put on it?

 

It was a sick read. I'm sure like others you get these “feelings” or “instincts” from a read even in online tourneys. I hate making my decisions on such parameters, but if they are there then they are there. Do you ignore them? Do you always go with it? It's tough.

 

Personally, as long as the “instinct/feeling from a read” is not due to fear, then on most occasions (but not always) I trust it and go with it whether I end up being right or wrong I just live with it.

 

How do others deal with this “feeling/instinct from a read”?

I used to get these feelings in live tourneys, but honestly imo i think they were d/t “fear of the monster under the bed syndrome” which should eventually go away. I really dont think OP extracted enough information in the given HH to get “that feeling/or perfect read” based on any objective data(other than woman reg limping which is some non-zero % of the time with AA or KK; i.e. people getting quiet and focused on you is so coincidental my man, maybe you just focused more on the other's behavior that point in time vs. the point in time when you had 38o during the first orbit because you had JJ and knew any decision you made with 20bb was a huge decision and you suddenly became more cognizant of the others and your surroundings).  I mean, you could lay down AA because “you felt” that it was going to be a big hand and 3 dudes/chics would be AIPF and you just “felt” you were going to get coolered by KK or you folded KK because you felt someone might wake up to AA, or you folded nut-full house because you had that feel the other guy had quads, etc.-I just dont think you can really do this consistently over the long run and be profitable.

I completely agree with the this is not the norm to do. I also believe she is calling off my jam with the range I had her on. So ignoring me read on the other players in the hand and that I did believe one if not more had bigger hands. Then do you guys get it on with JJ vs 1010+ and AQoff +. In the future do you get it in here with 47/48% against her range? Do you just limp? 2.5x? And see what happens behind? Or do you just get it in and hope for the best?