November 14, 2015
I hope you are able to access this hand – https://replayer.raiseyouredge.com/-LCEZvFnEMks7yOHfHaT
This is a hand from a micro tourney on pokerstars.
igorlekroo min raise from 12 bb stack in HJ. This looks strong to me, but I still don’t wanna fold my JJ on btn, so I 3 bet him small in position.
then turbo1781 cold 4bet shove from the big blind. My stats on him is 86 hands: 24 / 15 – 3b 9%
Does he have any bluffs in this spot? I think his range is like TT+, AK
When igorlekroo calls, can I fold the JJ? My guess is that his range is 99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+
If my ranges are correct, I’m getting 30%, and according to poker tracker I need 32%.
So what do you think about ranges I mentioned above?
February 8, 2017
Sick spot, but I can’t see any logical argument for ever folding this. I’d recommend shoving vs the 12bb minraise, small 3betting may get you in some awkward postflop spots if someone coldcalls you (which isn’t rare at micros). As played, if villains always have QQ+ you’re almost getting the right price, and you can’t possibly assign either villain a range that doesn’t include AK. Off 25bb I’m almost never folding JJ preflop, if there’s a 3bet from EP/MP in front of me I may find a fold, but I’m definitely not folding after committing 5bb to the pot.
This is just a cooler. Good of you to ask about it, but IMO never fold here or in similar spots and you will never be making a mistake. If you are playing well, the nature of MTTs means that most will end for you with unavoidable hands. Keep making good decisions and you will eventually have a run where you fade all the coolers and bad beats, and be king for a day. 🙂
EDIT: the reason you are not getting the right price vs ranges in PT4 is that it doesn’t know how to account for sidepots.
February 5, 2015
Hello zicko, I am never folding JJ here. In fact, you could chuck another couple of shovers in to the mix and I’m still calling off. Not the most technical analysis you’ll get here, but that’s my 2 cents.
WRT min raising or shoving, if the pot is 20% of my stack or greater, I’m shoving every time. Here it is not quite 20%, but it is close enough, and for the reasons stated above by DDD (hey DDD!) regarding getting yourself in to some tricky spots, best just to GII here imho.
In fact, so happy am I here with JJ in this spot, that even when I lose, I’m still happy. You’re good here too often and it’s a hugely +ev spot.
Well played old boy.
February 5, 2015
I have been mulling this hand over in my mind all day. It has brought up an interesting question.
I expect an equity calculator could give a definitive answer, but I don’t know of any where you can input multiple villain shove ranges.
As more villains go all in, hero’s equity with J J goes down. But at the same time his pot odds go up.
Let’s say every player at the table goes all in. My guess is that the increase in pot odds benefits hero way more than the decrease in equity.
Is this right?
(Or…just point out an equity calculator which handles multiple all ins for me!).
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
HoldemResources Calculator can do three-way all-in pots very easily, and generally any simple equity calculator like HoldEq or EquiLab will allow you to put in three players’ ranges. Since this is a simple call-off spot, you know exactly how much equity you need to call, which should make the equity calculation relatively straightforward.
In the example you mentioned – where all the players go all-in – it’s actually generally the opposite effect with most hands. Generally your equity in a multi-way spot will decrease faster than your pot odds improve, unless your hand is particularly durable multi-way (i.e. unless it’s KQs/QJs/JTs).
This means that speculating multi-way is nowhere near as incentivized as most people think it is, especially when we’re in the big blind. We’re getting great pot odds, but even if we’re getting 8.5 to 1 and we only need 10.5% equity to continue, if it’s a 9-way pot then a lot of hands will have sub-10% equity in the first place, and many of those will struggle to fully realize what equity they do have when they’re OOP.
The button is really the only spot where we should be somewhat speculative multi-way, since we have the capacity to realize equity much more easily in position – we can still call wide in the BB, but not so wide that we’re just hoping to hit two pair or better to continue.
February 5, 2015
Thanks Matt for your response. I really do appreciate the time you and Andrew give us in these forums.
I’ve been away form the forums for a while, and I have had time to think a little…I can understand how, when you are giving your time and energy and insight away to us for nothing in return, it must have been bloody annoying to have me prattle on about utter irrelevancies in the strat forum. Sorry I didn’t appreciate this before.
Matt said:
“Generally your equity in a multi-way spot will decrease faster than your pot odds improve, unless your hand is particularly durable multi-way”.
Very interesting. I had a question which I gave to my old coach regarding this very point, but he didn’t seem to grasp what I was getting at. My question was this:
For the sake of simplicity, let us assume every player has 15bb’s. Hero has AA. How many villains does he need to go up all in against before AA becomes a -ev proposition? My guess is that 3 villains makes AA break-even, or there abouts.
(Yes I was aware HRC allowed up to three way calcs., out of interest why can’t these calculators calculate for more villains? I’m sure it can’t be a question of performance or speed: the 3 way calcs are done immediately).
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
The Riceman said
Thanks Matt for your response. I really do appreciate the time you and Andrew give us in these forums.I’ve been away form the forums for a while, and I have had time to think a little…I can understand how, when you are giving your time and energy and insight away to us for nothing in return, it must have been bloody annoying to have me prattle on about utter irrelevancies in the strat forum. Sorry I didn’t appreciate this before.
Matt said:
“Generally your equity in a multi-way spot will decrease faster than your pot odds improve, unless your hand is particularly durable multi-way”.
Very interesting. I had a question which I gave to my old coach regarding this very point, but he didn’t seem to grasp what I was getting at. My question was this:
For the sake of simplicity, let us assume every player has 15bb’s. Hero has AA. How many villains does he need to go up all in against before AA becomes a -ev proposition? My guess is that 3 villains makes AA break-even, or there abouts.
(Yes I was aware HRC allowed up to three way calcs., out of interest why can’t these calculators calculate for more villains? I’m sure it can’t be a question of performance or speed: the 3 way calcs are done immediately).
Haha, no worries, nothing to apologise for.
What I said before about equity decreasing faster than pot odds improve applies to marginal hands, but in the case of AA, there’s no point at which pot odds would incentivize you to fold, because AA is always going to be the highest-equity hand in any preflop situation. It will save you some time if you literally never even think about folding AA preflop unless you’re on the bubble of a satellite, and even then, you probably shouldn’t do it very often.
Against three villains with progressively tighter shoving ranges, AA has ~60% equity preflop. Against five, it has ~40%. Even against an entire table worth of players (eight opponents), AA has ~23% equity, so given that you’d be getting just over 8:1 in that scenario and would therefore need somewhere in the region of ~11% equity to call, AA would be a snap. Even if you were up against 20 opponents, you would have the ~4.8% equity you needed to call.
The main part of the effect comes with other hands. Offsuit and low-card hands, primarily – they lose value rapidly once multiple players are in the pot, because making one-pair is less likely to win them the pot.
Bear in mind also that in preflop all-in situations, you’re never going to be denied any portion of your equity, so whatever equity you have is guaranteed to be realized. As a consequence, people tend to actually overcall too tightly in three-way all-in situations, because they fail to recognize that hands like QJs or 77 can actually retain pretty good equity in an all-in pot against two moderate ranges.
The main spots to bear in mind this effect are when considering preflop flatting spots that might lead to awkward multiway postflop play. A good rule of thumb for learning poker is not to waste time trying to figure out when you should fold KK+ preflop or bluff with 72o – there simply aren’t enough of these instances that it could possibly be a good use of study time. Another good piece of advice is that if you’re the kind of person who is inclined to want to find a reason to fold AA, it’s highly likely you should be more concerned with finding spots where you’re folding too much as it stands, rather than spots where you’re not folding enough.
February 5, 2015
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
joelshitshow said
This is a good conversation for anyone who is trying to understand the difference between equity and EV, as well as how to prioritize what to learn next.I’ll infer from some of the questions that variance is getting in the way of good decision making. Sure, you will probably lose the hand most of the time with AA with more than 2 or 3 opponents, but that doesn’t mean not to play it. +EV hands exist even when you have less than 50% equity.
We can take this several steps further – there’s literally no such thing as a spot where you need to have 50% equity in order to justify making a call, because it’s impossible for you to only be getting 1:1 on your money in a NLHE hand. The presence of blinds and antes means that you’re always getting slightly better than 1:1.
In any spot where there exists a good amount of dead money in the pot in the form of bets that have already been placed in the hand, you’ll usually be getting much better than that, which means the required equity threshold is much lower than 50%.
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