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January 20, 2014
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I got involved in a facebook discussion today about folding AA preflop in Texas Hold’em. There are very few places where this makes sense.
One example is an extreme situation: Satellite, right on the bubble, 2 guys you cover goes all in and then 2 guys who cover you call. Since it’s a satellite, getting the last ticket is worth as much as any other. In this case I would fold AA.
I don’t believe it’s possible to set up a scenario where I would fold AA in a normal MTT or SNG where the 1st place is worth a lot more than the min cash. But a guy insisted that on the bubble there is a case for this as well.
I don’t believe it. But I have no numbers to back it up. Anyone here with some ICM calc skills who wants to try and find some combination where it’s correct to fold AA?
There might be some situations where people might fold. For example, the WSOP main event on the bubble with some all-ins in front of you – like the above satellite. I’d say they shouldn’t play the tournament if they need a min cash this bad. But OTOH there are so many people playing this that quadroupling your stack makes almost no difference in your chances for 1st place. Same situation occurs in one of the large online games on Stars with 40.000 people, although the prizes are much smaller.
I’d never fold AA in an MTT. But I would learn something new if this is proven wrong – at least according to ICM theory.
February 5, 2015
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Hmmm…interesting thread.
I got 2/3rds of the way through The Raiser’s Edge, which is a much more math based tome than I was expecting; I expect these guys ran their math all the way.
IIRC, I can’t remember a scenario…even a satty…where the authors were folding out AA pre; but…
In the example scenario you paint with the satty…yes, I also am folding out AA pre here.
HU, however, I am calling in the satty with KK+, depending what it’s worth to me…hey! Maybe I’m calling with 55+ if it’s not that much!
bothorsen said:
“I don’t believe it’s possible to set up a scenario where I would fold AA in a normal MTT or SNG where the 1st place is worth a lot more than the min cash. But a guy insisted that on the bubble there is a case for this as well.”
and:
“There might be some situations where people might fold. For example, the WSOP main event on the bubble with some all-ins in front of you – like the above satellite. I’d say they shouldn’t play the tournament if they need a min cash this bad.”
As you suggest, if you need the mincash this bad…then you are playing in a T in which you do not belong. Having said that…I certainly do play out-rolled from time to time when shot-taking, and if the mincash is significant for me, then I might fold out AA pre here also. But really, the fact of the matter is: if I am folding AA in order to mincash, then I am playing outside of my BR limits, and in reality have no real business playing the T in the first place…and in doing so, I am benefitting the true players in the game: the guys who ARE rolled sufficiently for the T.
Interesting question though!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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It’s not hard at all to find satellite bubble spots where this is correct. I think you could construct MTT bubble scenarios as well. Suppose a mincash is 2x the buyin, and after that the pay increases are quite gradual for a long time. You have nothing but a few ante chips remaining, and it’s the exact bubble. You just went through the BB so you can survive six more hands before getting blinded out. I wouldn’t be surprised if folding everything here is +EV. Even if you get it in and win, you’re still unlikely to do significantly better than a min cash.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Also worth noting that there are some exceptional circumstances where you might consider folding AA in a non-satellite, the best examples being that the money you get from cashing is worth a massive amount to you compared to a slight increase in your chance at winning – usually when you’re playing an event way above your normal buyin levels.
Let’s say you somehow freeroll your way into the million-dollar One Drop tournament – the difference it might make to your life to win $2million for cashing compared to $0 for bubbling might actually be greater than the difference between making $2million for cashing and making $18million for winning. In the right configuration of circumstances, giving yourself the maximum chance at cashing that event while playing on the bubble might be more significant than bumping your chances of winning up by an extra 5%, especially if you’re in a field of better players.
This is an extreme example, but it’s applicable at lower levels too. If you’re a micro player and satellite into the Sunday Million, you might value the $300 cash more than a tiny shot at running good enough to win, since you’re going to have to get through another 1k players after cashing anyway.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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True, although I would argue you shouldn’t be putting yourself in these spots in the first place. That’s what BRM is for. If you freeroll into the One Drop, you should sell action, even if you have to do it at markdown.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Foucault said
True, although I would argue you shouldn’t be putting yourself in these spots in the first place. That’s what BRM is for. If you freeroll into the One Drop, you should sell action, even if you have to do it at markdown.
Yeah, very valid point! Sadly I doubt any of us will get that chance any time soon.
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