July 7, 2012
I don’t think I am ever folding this. If he is as bad as you say then he could well be betting a flush that he flopped. There are a lot of J’s in his range and his min bet min bet / call line does look like a Jx with x of spades. But, after your c/r he shouldnt have many bluffs here. I still think I am sigh calling.
Sorry that not a great analysis, been a long day.
aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1
PocketFives Profile: .....urbulence/
March 29, 2016
If he is such a donk as you said, I would never fold it on the river. Just based on this one previous play you mentioned.
We also need to consider the fact that you already commited 21k into the pot, the pot size of 45k, remaining 61k in your stack.
He bets 24k into 45k pot, you need to win 1/3 of the time. I see him calling the turn check-raise with a flush, with Ax, even with flush draw (Ks or Qs). I think that’s the reason to call it. If he has it, he has it.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
Doubt I’m folding here, villain is probably more likely to bet/call turn with Ax or a flush than Jx so there aren’t too many Jx combos in their range on river. They might be bad enough to have bluffs/flushes when betting river too.
Would probably c/r flop versus this villain, you get a lot of value from one-spade hands.
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