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Fold with QQ too tight??
LDT22
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July 21, 2014 - 6:31 pm
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Hey TPE, not sure if this is too tight a fold or not??

 

In the Million 990 get paid, About 1100-1200 runners left. Only been at table for about 10-15 hands so no reads other than guy who shoves 89BB had been active.  My thoughts were even if i had the best hand there would be better spots as i still have 35BB and expected to be flipping at least as the overshove made me think QQ+ or AK, perhaps this range if too tight in this spot?

 

Any thoughts are appreciated.

Cheers

 

Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1000/t2000 Blinds + t200 – 9 players – View hand 2543745
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

vadka (BB): BB = 48.7, t97415
Albandy514 (UTG): BB = 11.0, t21933
Hero (UTG+1): BB = 35.3, t70645
TitanTilts (UTG+2): BB = 11.0, t22032
jsizzle20 (MP1): BB = 16.1, t32178
Zillis (MP2): BB = 91.1, t182177
exposabre (CO): BB = 89.2, t178328
botan152 (BTN): BB = 33.2, t66311
mitch85 (SB): BB = 26.9, t53792

Pre Flop: (t4800) Hero is UTG+1 with Q of diamonds Q of clubs
1 fold, Hero raises to t4000, TitanTilts raises to t21832 all in, jsizzle20 raises to t31978 all in, 1 fold, exposabre raises to t178128 all in, 4 folds

Flop: (t94588) 9 of diamonds T of hearts T of spades (3 players – 3 are all in)

Turn: (t94588) 2 of clubs (3 players – 3 are all in)

River: (t94588) 9 of clubs (3 players – 3 are all in)

Foucault

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July 22, 2014 - 12:23 pm
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Try putting all of these players on ranges, run it through an equity calculator, and see what kind of odds you need to call. This is going to be complicated because of the sidepots, but it will be a good exercise for you I think. Folding a coin flip here would be a mistake because of the overlay – you are a big favorite against the first two players to shove.

LDT22
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July 22, 2014 - 6:34 pm
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Thanks Andrew good point, will do that.

 

Thanks for the response.

lapp3r30
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July 22, 2014 - 11:19 pm
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Not sure you can have his range that tight either. No one behind has him covered.. Eff shove is just over 1/2 stack… What does he do w 99-JJ?? AQ+, 99+ Seems close to his range…

tjpete96
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July 23, 2014 - 8:08 pm
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Foucault, I know this is a basic concept but I struggle with odds calculations and comparing pot odds to drawing odds or equity odds (if that is a thing). Percentages work much better with me.  I actually was going to post almost this exact scenario from a the Nightly $5 on Carbon last night.  I folded QQ from the SB to BB and UTG shoves.  We were already ITM but not very far.

Hero (SB): 27.38 BB

BB (BB): 12.14 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 1.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 63)

UTG (UTG): 24.67 BB (VPIP: 24.59, PFR: 18.97, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 61)
UTG raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5.7 BB, BB raises to 12.04 BB and is all-in
UTG raises to 24.57 BB and is all-in, fold

So I am getting 2.28:1 or 30% equity to call.  I use an equity calculator and estimate that the BB is shoving 50% of his hands 
with only 12BB and that the UTG+1 is reshoving his 25 BB with about 9% of hands.  So based on that then I have about
52% (.95:1) equity, BB has 18%, and UTG has 29% equity.
 
Based on that my hand equity of 52% is well over the 30% pot equity...so that is a call?  Also, what are your thoughts on
the ranges I used for BB and UTG?
 
Thanks
 
 
Foucault

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July 23, 2014 - 9:28 pm
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Sidepots get really tricky with this. I'd approach it like this:

Depending on the size of the antes, there will be something like 40 or 41BB in the main pot, and you have to contribute 6.3, so in the main pot you need something like 15% equity to break even. If you actually have 52% equity, then you've got 37% of 40BB or about 15BB worth of EV from the main pot.

Of course, to realize that equity you have to risk money against UTG in the sidepot getting 1:1. That's not a problem in this case because you're actually a sizable favorite against his 9% of hands.

Let's assume, though, that you had a weaker hand like 77 that has just 40% equity against UTG's range. You each will put about 13BB into the sidepot, but you will have just 40% or about 10.4BB in equity. That means you are losing 2.6BB in the side pot.

That's OK, though, because you can think of that 2.6BB as the price you have to pay to realize that huge edge you have in the main pot.

So the bottom line is that given your assumptions about your opponent's ranges, folding QQ would be a disaster and even folding 77 would be a big mistake.

That said, I do think your range for BB is pretty far off. A 50% range would have him cold 4-bet shoving J7o with no fold equity. I'd put him on a much tighter range, but it should still be a call with QQ.

tjpete96
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July 23, 2014 - 11:14 pm
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Thank you very much.  BB had 99 and UTG AKs. Neither improved and my QQ would have won. I appreciate the detailed and timely response.

lapp3r30
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July 23, 2014 - 11:20 pm
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BB and UTG weren’t in the hand. Doesn’t make much difference… But can you correct who had what please? Cheers!

Sorry I thought you were talking about op…

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