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Fold vs call?
TheDukeVA
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September 17, 2015 - 12:53 pm
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I need help with a situation that came up last night, please provide feedback.

Scenario:

Live Game

14 player $50 Buy in

1st $350

2nd $250

3rd $100

8 Left, Chip average is 26,250 (15,000 start)

Blinds 500/1000 no antes

Hero is in SB with 31,000 (31BB)

Villain is in BB with 18,300 (18BB)

Folded around to Hero in SB with 33. Hero makes it 2,500

Villain in BB glances at cards and SNAP shoves.

Here is the read:

I have played 1000+ hands with villain. He is a hyper aggressive LAG that loves to apply pressure. He is extremely spewy and is a losing player. He is also completely unbalanced and would NEVER shove here with premium hands. He also assumes I am trying to steal his blind, this I am sure. So I range him as any pair up to 9’s, any Ax-Qx, any suited connectors, single gappers with J, 10, 9. I am not able to figure out my equity in game but feel there is a very good chance I am ahead.

Now, for the purposes of full disclosure, I will mention that I fucking hate this guy, so there is that. AND I am pretty sure that effects my decision making.  

Post game I calculate I am about 51% against said range. 

I am above average in chips, have 31BB starting the hand and have skill advantage over 6 of the 7 other players left.

Call or Fold? OR, should I have shoved pre? I am a little lost, none of the options seem right.

Thanks!

TheDuke

EllDan
Wilkes-Barre, Pa
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September 17, 2015 - 1:03 pm
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Hey Duke, Like the open with the intent to steal the blinds but would let go on the shove.  The only hand you have dominated is 22.  At best flipping against villain.  I would not shove pre here. 

GunnJD
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September 18, 2015 - 8:46 am
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It won’t always be a pleasurable experience, but a call will be correct against a loose player.

Against a tight player pre antes, 55 would be the bottom of our range here, if that puts things into perspective at all.

Open shoving pre is probably better, though a little tough to balance. 

TheDukeVA
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September 18, 2015 - 2:41 pm
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I snap fold any other player at the table.

I did call. It was purely a player dependent call.

 

TheDuke

joelshitshow
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September 18, 2015 - 8:44 pm
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By folding you may get to take advantage of a better situation next orbit. No matter who your opponent is, calling a shove with 33 is tough because you’re only decently ahead of x2. Tilt calls feel good, but there will be a better spot. I’d sooner call with Kx.

Foucault

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September 19, 2015 - 3:04 pm
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joelshitshow said
I’d sooner call with Kx.

No way. It’s very tough to dominate 33, easy to dominate K8. Even without antes, this should be a shove pre.

jacobsharktank
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September 21, 2015 - 2:29 am
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I agree with Foucalt. Against a tight tight player, raising with the intention of folding (because I’m imagining theyll be shoving a tight range that 33 doesn’t get requisite odds against. 18.3+2.5/15.8 (43%)) would be my desired plan. That’s because if they won’t call, then it’s just a profitable steal. I guess that would mean it’s a wasted hand since it actually is hard to be dominated if you add a lot of ace x’s and broadway hands into the mix, but that would be a more aggressive player. Against that type of player, you probably have a ton past requisite equity to raise/call profitably. However, I definitely prefer just ripping. To stress, that’s against this kind of player. Maybe that’s something I should calculate further for other player types, but I now really see the point of straight ripping here against a better than average player.

joelshitshow
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September 23, 2015 - 12:26 am
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I see your point that K8 can be dominated easily. But for this hand, I don’t think I can call a shove with 33. Doesn’t a lot of the EV come from fold equity?

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