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Fold or call? A3s FT of Merge 3K$ Guar
isaacjames
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February 29, 2012 - 1:10 pm
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Merge – $4+$0.40|<> NL – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: 323,186.00
BB: 165,722.00
UTG: 77,366.00 (9.7 BBs)
MP: 153,074.00
Hero (CO): 470,786.00 (58.8 BBs)
BTN: 127,866.00

SB posts ante 800.00, BB posts ante 800.00, UTG posts ante 800.00, MP posts ante 800.00, Hero posts ante 800.00, BTN posts ante 800.00, SB posts SB 4,000.00, BB posts BB 8,000.00

Pre Flop: (16800.00) Hero has  3diamond Adiamond

[color=red]UTG raises to 76,566.00 and is all-in[/color], fold, Hero?

shutEMdown
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February 29, 2012 - 1:50 pm
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we cant really help you unless you assign him a range….im sure u have history with him so has he been shove happy at the FT? or has be been quiet for a few orbits and all of the sudden shoves here? as is, its 6handed and hes gettin short so if i wud guess hes shoving something like 27% of hands:

22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T8s+, A5o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

were 44% against said range but again….is that accurate from the info you have on him? bad players look at any pair like 22 and shove but wont shove 98s or J7s not kowning those hands have slightly better equity against the avg players calling range.

now the problem we face is that we arent closing the action which shud reduce our calling range. with 3 left behind and the SB having a stack that can cripple us, its too close. if we closed the action in BB, its a call. ive seen players iso here with the exact same spot but so much easier to do and less variance if the stacks are all 10-15bb and SB didnt have 40bb. we wudnt care if one of the SS stuffs it in cuz although we are behind, its a potentially big pot for little risk. actually, scratch that. there are two 20bb stacks behind. its potentially a high variance/big icm swing. I mean, we cud just call and fold if SB shoves but it would suck if he is capable of isoing us with weaker stuff or the 20bb stacks stuff and we are forced to call. so i dunno its close. there are merits to passing on a slightly cEV spot at a FT esp if we have the CL. i guess u shud give us more reads then.

i wonder wat others think as i tend to pass up on these with the CL cuz its so much easier to rip the table with 60bb then 35/40bb.

rivermen123
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February 29, 2012 - 2:15 pm
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I think I fold here.

isaacjames
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February 29, 2012 - 2:26 pm
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shutEMdown said:

we cant really help you unless you assign him a range….im sure u have history with him so has he been shove happy at the FT? or has be been quiet for a few orbits and all of the sudden shoves here? as is, its 6handed and hes gettin short so if i wud guess hes shoving something like 27% of hands:

22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T8s+, A5o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

were 44% against said range but again….is that accurate from the info you have on him? bad players look at any pair like 22 and shove but wont shove 98s or J7s not kowning those hands have slightly better equity against the avg players calling range.

 

Only 12 hands with Him, he folded the previous 11 hands.

shutEMdown
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February 29, 2012 - 2:38 pm
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then its an ez fold. we dont know his range there, it cud be ATC but we dont know, and we have couple fish still to act who can damage our stack. preserve the 60bb and rip the medium stacks.

SJOHN11
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February 29, 2012 - 7:24 pm
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Its an easy fold in the cut off, with the other stacks behind u. Hes shoving a wide range here as he is hitting te blinds next — if i was in the BB i would call.

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