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Flush Draw and Overs

DuckinDaDeck

Hunting Max EV

Sunday Major

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September 13, 2019 - 9:10 pm

PokerStars – 250/500 Ante 60 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 108.2 BB
BB: 99.88 BB
UTG: 138.31 BB
UTG+1: 66.14 BB
MP: 190.4 BB
MP+1: 74.73 BB
Hero (MP+2): 101.1 BB
CO: 161.92 BB
BTN: 76.35 BB

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has K spade J spade

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6.5 BB

Flop: (19.58 BB, 2 players) 5 spade 8 club T spade

BB bets 9.75 BB, Hero ?

$109 WCOOP, villain is a complete unknown. How do we want to play these big draws in 2019?

SPR here is a little under 5. At what SPR are we always raising? Is there an SPR deep enough that we should never raise?

3for3

High Stakes Shark

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September 14, 2019 - 3:12 pm

Andrew has some interesting thoughts, that I think can be summarized thusly: When looking to get all in with a semi bluff, try to be the one who makes the last bet; maximizing your fold equity.

How does that pertain to this hand? If the SPR was much lower, jamming the flop would certainly be viable here, your hand has lots of equity against Villains range. I think jamming here would be ‘too big’, Villain has 90BB behind. A pot sized raised would be about 48BB. If we do make a normalish sized raise, Villain could jam over us and put us in a more or less 0 EV calling spot vs his range, which is exactly what we want to avoid.

3for3

High Stakes Shark

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September 14, 2019 - 3:36 pm

PIO doesn’t even have a raising range at the original parameters. It starts to raise some small amount at SPR=3, at SPR=2, it is raising 21.5% of the time, but KJs with a flush draw is still a ‘mix’.

Of course this is heavily dependent on what premium hands I allow you to flat with, and how many 3 bet bluffs the BB has (some BBs have none, but I’d guess at this stake on line at least some will have some 3 bet bluffs).

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