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November 28, 2015
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Is this a river spot where I check? I don’t know if I like the lead but either way, I think I went too large. I didn’t range my opponent in game, because reviewing this hand now I think I could have gotten more value by choosing a smaller size to lead river or by checking. I think he checks back a lot of his one pair type hands though, so leading might not be horrible but my sizing is atrocious.
I think that a lot of his raising range on the flop would be like 44s, 54s, 99-TT. He might also raise me with A8. I think he probably checks back most of those hands on the river, except 44s. I think there’s a lead size that I could have chosen that he might have called. Maybe something like 1/3-1/2 pot. I think 1/2 would be fine because he might call half pot if he’s calling 1/3. Either way, I am pretty disgusted with my river decision. Hope you guys enjoy the replayer, and use it for future hand discussions. Just click the link above.
July 24, 2018
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I think the river is a check, yes. It feels awful when you check the nuts and Villain snap checks behind. But, what are we hoping calls river that wouldn’t bet? I guess exactly 7x, but even that looks like a marginal bluff catcher. Your line strongly suggests a full house (or quads). The real question, is do we want to have a betting range at all, and if so, what are our bluffs?
I guess something like 99 could be turned into a bluff (blocks 97) or maybe 86s, which blocks full houses. A5s blocks the most full houses, but it might have enough showdown value to check/bluff catch.
I’d also strongly consider check raising the flop. You will have a lot of hands that totally miss this board and want to check. 55 is about as good as it gets for a check raise. You don’t block top pair so Villain will have a lot of legitimate value bets with 8x. I think the hands to balance this check raise are going to be Axs hands with back door flush draws. I am not sure whether it is better to have a gutter as well (A7,A6,A3,A2).
Another point in favor of check raising; my experience is that Villains overbluff this spot; checked to on a board that hits their range. Yes, they should have a lot of bets/bluffs, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see QTs with no BDFD betting here, and that is a hand where we would get no value from.
November 28, 2015
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3for3 said
I think the river is a check, yes. It feels awful when you check the nuts and Villain snap checks behind. But, what are we hoping calls river that wouldn’t bet? I guess exactly 7x, but even that looks like a marginal bluff catcher. Your line strongly suggests a full house (or quads). The real question, is do we want to have a betting range at all, and if so, what are our bluffs?
I agree. I think the only way to make more money in this spot is by checking. If villain is going to put more money into the pot, it’s going to be when I check to him. By checking to him, we allow him the opportunity to bluff his low-to-no equity hands. Which most players will just check back anyway. By betting, we let him off the hook. I think this board texture is a tough one to get paid on, because hands that would normally be premium made are now only marginal. Even 7x is not that strong, like you said, because there really aren’t that many bluffs, if there are anyway at all.
July 24, 2018
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When you say ‘the only way to make more money in this spot is checking’, I think you are missing a key point. You will make money when Villain has a Full House, the chips are all going in either way. What you what to think about are:
1. What hands will call a bet that won’t bet themselves? This hinges on Villain calling with 7x, since he will always bet FH, and never bet less than a 7 for value.
2. What hands will bluff if I check? This is hard to say. Although, in theory Villain should have some bluffs that get to this river, I doubt they have any.
You then compare 1 to 2. If there are more hands in 1, then you want to bet; if there are more hands in 2, then you want to check.
The above assumes all the chips are going in. You had an SPR greater than 1 on the river, so it is certainly possible to bet much less than all in, but the basic point remains: Vs Full Houses, it doesn’t matter what you do; It’s the 7x and possible bluffs you need to assess….
January 4, 2020
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I would check/raise this flop rather than CBet. Most of our range is vulnerable on this flop texture and will find it difficult to play vs a raise against your Cbet.
As played I think shoving is bad. You could try a blocker bet to induce a spazz but I’d rather see a check to allow villain to continue with his bluffs to try and get you off AA or whatever he think you might have.
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