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Flop Top Set - Scary board...best line here?
wager9
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March 26, 2015 - 1:20 am
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Just moved to table second hand in.

Winning Poker Network – 450/900 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: 35,437.00
BTN: 49,160.00
SB: 9,996.00
BB: 42,779.00
UTG: 9,800.00
Hero (UTG+1): 42,862.00
MP: 15,235.00
MP+1: 73,352.00

SB posts ante 90.00, BB posts ante 90.00, UTG posts ante 90.00, Hero posts ante 90.00, MP posts ante 90.00, MP+1 posts ante 90.00, CO posts ante 90.00, BTN posts ante 90.00, SB posts SB 450.00,BB posts BB 900.00

Pre Flop: (2070.00) Hero has T T 

foldHero raises to 2,700.00foldfoldfoldfoldfoldBB calls 1,800.00

Flop: (6570.00, 2 players) T 5 6 
BB checks, Hero bets 3,285.00BB calls 3,285.00

Turn: (13140.00, 2 players) 9 
BB checks, Hero bets 6,570.00BB calls 6,570.00

River: (26280.00, 2 players) 8 
BB bets 11,700.00Hero ????

Is checking on the turn a viable option? Here is why I thought it might: as I think through his likely range, I can not find a whole lot that he calls with here when behind. I feel like if he calls we are beat.  Yet…we obviously don't want to fold and have a great hand. Is pot controlling here and perhaps inducing a bluff (or maybe he even will think he is good with 2 pair or something here ) a good option? Or is it best to keep firing here without really knowing how we stand at this point?

Kalculater
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March 26, 2015 - 2:12 am
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Is this your standard raise size preflop or do you vary your sizings?

 

Flop: This board does favour a big blind defending range quite well and we can extract more value from making a bigger cbet.

 

Turn: This is a scary card and favours big blinds range more than ours so we can definitely make a bigger bet to extract more value. We are definitely not beat when he calls. He has pairs with As kicker, two pairs and other hands we beat currently in his range.

 

River: This is a really small bet and kinda looks like a blocker bet with a small spade or two pair. We cannot beat any spade or straight at this point. I like a fold.

ltcolumbo
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March 26, 2015 - 9:32 am
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what I think in the heat of the moment…

It's is a bit strange to see a check-call from villain on the turn, then a lead out vs. a check/raise (with a big spade?).  As played, it looks like he had a hand worth defending with (Ax?), called a street because Ace or made a pair.  Perhaps he check-calls turn because he has the As or intends to bluff lead river no matter what and this card just makes it easier.  And his lead is half-pot, knowing you could have a single spade just as easily.  I am folding here. 

Foucault

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March 26, 2015 - 12:30 pm
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Kalculater said:

Is this your standard raise size preflop or do you vary your sizings?

 

Good question. I agree that smaller pre-flop raises with your whole range would be preferable.

Flop: This board does favour a big blind defending range quite well and we can extract more value from making a bigger cbet.

 

Similar to your question about the pre-flop sizing – are you varying your c-bet size based on your hand? If so, I actually think top set is a good one to bet small or check back, simply because you block so much of your opponent's potential calling range. If not, I don't think large c-bets should be the default vs a BB caller (though that's more true following a smaller pre-flop raise).

Turn: This is a scary card and favours big blinds range more than ours so we can definitely make a bigger bet to extract more value. We are definitely not beat when he calls. He has pairs with As kicker, two pairs and other hands we beat currently in his range.

 

I don't follow the logic here. It's a better card for Villain so Hero should make a bigger bet with the middle of his value range? I think there's a pretty strong case for checking here, because getting raised sucks and there's not a lot of value in three-barreling unimproved even if Villain does check-call, so we aren't missing a lot of value by checking. I prefer to bet-fold hands that are slightly ahead/way behind, such as AA without a spade, and check back hands like this one that are slightly ahead/slightly behind with potential to improve on the river. As for “definitely not beat”, you're right that he can call with some hands worse than TT, but that doesn't change the fact that he has plenty of flushes too. “Pair with an As kicker” amounts to 6 combos, and there aren't that many two pairs either, considering Hero's blcokers and the lack of a flop check-raise. I encourage you to give Villain a calling range and look at how TT is actually doing against it rather than just coming up with individual hands Hero can beat.

 

River: This is a really small bet and kinda looks like a blocker bet with a small spade or two pair. We cannot beat any spade or straight at this point. I like a fold.

I don't know about the two pair, but I agree with the fold. A lot of Hero's turn betting range should be made flushes or spade semi-bluffs which are now flushes. That makes TT pretty close to the bottom of his range and also a poor bluff-catcher as it doesn't block any of Villain's value hands.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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March 26, 2015 - 9:29 pm
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wager9 said:

 

 Is pot controlling here and perhaps inducing a bluff (or maybe he even will think he is good with 2 pair or something here ) a good option? Or is it best to keep firing here without really knowing how we stand at this point?

 

If you're going to check turn and villian bets river , his range ain't going to be weighted towards bluffs or marginal hands. Villians range will consist of monsters i.e. flushes and maybe straights imo.

Foucault

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March 26, 2015 - 10:07 pm
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:

wager9 said:

 

 Is pot controlling here and perhaps inducing a bluff (or maybe he even will think he is good with 2 pair or something here ) a good option? Or is it best to keep firing here without really knowing how we stand at this point?

 

If you're going to check turn and villian bets river , his range ain't going to be weighted towards bluffs or marginal hands. Villians range will consist of monsters i.e. flushes and maybe straights imo.

On this river, maybe. On many rivers, I think Villain can certainly value bet worse and Hero would have a pretty clear call on those grounds alone, not to mention that some hands may well get turned into bluffs.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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March 28, 2015 - 7:02 pm
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@foucault , which worse hands do you think v will value bet? if v had a hand like two pair they would of likely raised these otf or ott…
also u did say that there’s not a lot of two pairs that villain can have in there range considering hero’s blockers.

Foucault

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March 30, 2015 - 2:28 am
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:

@foucault , which worse hands do you think v will value bet? if v had a hand like two pair they would of likely raised these otf or ott…
also u did say that there's not a lot of two pairs that villain can have in there range considering hero's blockers.

I was responding to your comment about a hypothetical where Hero checked turn and faced a bet on the river (not that I think two pair would c/r this turn anyway). 65 is the obvious one, but 96 and maybe even 95s are possibilities as well, as are the few combos of Tx depending on the river card.

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