In spots like this (after playing pre and flop passively) you could just ck behind.  You've got a marginal hand, so seeing the free river isn't so bad with your showdown value mid pair.  Also, on the river what amount would he bet for value or bluff?  Maybe the same 4.5bb bet you made on the turn, so your river call would equate to the same amount of chips put into the pot but with seeing a showdown.

The board texture is so dry on the flop and the turn, that his possible “check to induce” play is a good one.  There aren't many draws, so he doesn't really need to worry about giving you a free card.  If the board was wet, something like QsKs3d9d he would lead out for value/protection instead of checking.  You can consider this the next time you donk the turn IP vs your opponent.  If you use tracking software, take a look at hands where you bet/(fold or call) the turn to opponent's c/r and I bet the board textures will be pretty similar (dry).  

Also, remember that he opened UTG.  I don't know what his stats are, but the UTG open usually signifies strength.  I think the float flop donk turn plays work better vs. later positions opens where opponents are generally opening a wider range and you're on the BTN or CO.

So to sum up, dry boards allow opponents to c/r turns, and the earlier they open the stronger their range so they could do this with a set, 2p, overpair or TPTK.  With s/d value, ck behind, call river, and see a cheaper showdown.

Also, are you the type of player who stabs at pots alot IP when opponents check to you?  If they know you do this a lot, they'll take this line to get extra value from you.  At your stack sizes, your opponent needs you to bet/call here to get stacks in on the river.

Thanks for the post,

Wacky

To your initial question “What im curious about is how to avoid being on the wrong end of this play”, I don't think you can always avoid being on the wrong end of this play, but you can look to avoid spots where it's most likely to happen.  I think doing this (float flop donk turn) vs early position openers and on dry boards is the most dangerous, but probably still pretty profitable in the long run.

To your thought of seeing the river and hoping he doesn't outdraw you, we can count his outs.  Let's say he has two overs to your pair (AK, AJ, KJ,) that's only 9 cards that you want to avoid (AAAKKKJJJ).  Of the remaining 41 cards in the deck (52-2-2-3burns-4board) that makes only 22% of the time he'll possibly hit a card you'll hate calling on.  If he's got KJ (but this can be discounted somewhat due to his UTG open) specifically for a gs, then you can add the two tens you haven't seen yet, giving 11 outs and 27% chance of hitting.  If he's got an under pair, there's only 2 cards that can help (but you'll have no idea what the card is), and that makes only 5% chance he'll hit.  If he does hit any of these outs, and he feels he's ahead of you, what's he going to value bet anyway?  Is he going to bet pot or more?  Probably 1/3pot to 1/2pot to get value out of your perceived weak range.  You'll be putting 4.5bb's in here most of the time and seeing a showdown.  If he makes a bigger, scarier bet you'll just fold and save yourself the 4.5bb's, and get out of the hand with only a 4.5bb hit to your stack.

So with the scenario above, you're putting in 4.5bb's on the turn (as a steal with the chance of getting c/r off your hand) with no showdown, or 4.5bb's on the river and guaranteed to see a showdown with a bluff catcher.  Sure, you could steal with your turn donk, but that's a chance you just have to take sometimes.  Remember, getting caught bluffing isn't bad when you've got a good reason to do it and a good line to follow.  It's just part of poker.

theginger45 said:

Firstly, there's no such thing as “the rest of the hand is irrelevant”. It's entirely relevant, because if you stacked off in a bad spot then you made a bad play, and being unwilling to admit it to other people or yourself isn't going to help you improve.

Secondly, however, there's a very simple solution when you feel like you're being exploited in a certain spot (which you're almost certainly not anyway, unless you have a huge sample of hands to prove it) – stop making the play that you feel is exploitable. Especially with a hand like TT on Q74. You're not floating when you call the flop in that spot, you're calling for value. Floating is when you call with a weak hand in order to take it away later – when you call with TT on Q74r, you're calling because you don't need to take it away later.

You don't have to bet the turn with TT if you feel like he's not calling often enough with worse hands or he's check-raising too much. You don't have to float the flop at all if your opponent has a high check-raise turn % over a large sample of hands (>1k hands). Poker is 100% a game of adaptation, so if a certain play isn't working out well for you, don't just stubbornly keep making it and wonder why it doesn't work – simply stop doing it! Fold more of your weak hands on the flop and check back the turn with medium-to-strong hands like TT there.

Don't fall into the trap of making certain plays just because you saw it in a video. Trust your reads and learn to adapt, because that's a far more valuable skill in the long run. 

+1 (well said, Ginger)