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August 10, 2014
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The $11 10k on Bovada, about 22 left.
A couple questions:
1) Shoving this pre? If not, what does your range look like?
2) I'm flatting a wide range in the BB against min opens. My concern here is the reverse implied odds if the opener's range is actually strong. I'm not sure how reliable his hud stats really are.
3) No reason to feel anything but good check/jamming this flop?
PokerStars - $10+$1|4000/8000 Ante 800.00 NL - Holdem - 7 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 MP: 255,752 (VPIP: 9.38, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33) CO: 101,768 (VPIP: 14.77, PFR: 12.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 89) BTN: 362,352 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 22.73, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22) SB: 122,597 (VPIP: 10.91, PFR: 1.92, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55) Hero (BB): 97,966 UTG: 94,417 (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 6.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33) UTG+1: 314,855 (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16) 7 players post ante of 800, SB posts SB 4,000, Hero posts BB 8,000 Pre Flop: (pot: 17,600) Hero has 9A
fold, [color=red]UTG+1 raises to 16,000[/color], fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 8,000 Flop: (41,600, 2 players) 8
6
Hero checks, [color=red]UTG+1 bets 16,000[/color], [color=red]Hero
June 11, 2012
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fold pre vs such a nit
August 10, 2014
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florianm1 said:
fold pre vs such a nit
Yeahhh its just 16 hands though, and I'm interested in how we should be playing this versus a rando. That is what it'll be most of the time on Bovada.
June 11, 2012
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well i know its a small sample size but i tend to think peole are tight until they prove me otherwise.
better one fodl too much then one shove too much.
September 14, 2014
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Against most opponents you should be calling pre here given the good odds you're getting and against a tighter opponent folding pre would be OK ,you do need a strong read on this. as for post flop the flop hits our calling range from the bb pretty hard, so i think shoving flop would be good here, we do have some fold equity against the weakest part of villians range IMO.
February 20, 2015
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If you check-shove jam, even if he loses he has 25 bigs left. I wonder how much that factors into his decision.
VPIP 3 of 16 and raising 1 of 16 doesn’t tell much, but sometimes you have to treat it like you have 160 hands on him, it’s true.
August 10, 2014
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Ehh I'm not sold on the hud stats being a reason to fold this pre. (I may be being results oriented here).
I think the overall situation and relative stack sizes after his open are more important, and it isn't really a horrible spot for him to open.
On the flop the bluffs in my check jamming range are basically draws, everything else will have some showdown value. He's going to fold better and worse Ax (with the exception of A7 *cough*), and probably small pairs. Most of the time when he calls he'll either have top pair or a flopped over pair, or a 7.
Anyway, check/jamming is pretty indisputable I think.
June 11, 2012
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well, if i flat this pre then i am alos in the check/jam camp
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December 6, 2012
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I like calling pre, even against a nit you'll win often enough when an Ace flops to warrant calling, I think. Not a fan of ck/jamming flop, V may not cbet AK/AQ and you block them anyway. I'd strongly consider donking. Given V's size, I'd call and bluff rivers if turn checks through to get him off of better Ax.
June 11, 2012
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Foucault said:
I like calling pre, even against a nit you'll win often enough when an Ace flops to warrant calling, I think. Not a fan of ck/jamming flop, V may not cbet AK/AQ and you block them anyway. I'd strongly consider donking. Given V's size, I'd call and bluff rivers if turn checks through to get him off of better Ax.
you plan on bet/calling or bet/folding?
doubt we get the odds to bet/call and bet/folding might be bad given the equity we have
December 11, 2013
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Thought this was an interesting flop spot and a situation I tend to struggle with so wanted to run some math on it:
Scenario 1: Villain Has uncapped cbetting range which includes 44+ (all sets) and all AQ/AK with BDFD's. Villain bet/folds with the AK/AQ combos and calls all others:
With our blockers, this is 66 combos of which villain folds 6, so we have 9.1% FE and make 3781 chips on that FE.
We get called most of the time and have about 24% Equity, so our ChipEV when called is 44,763 chips. We shove 80k and have a total expectation of about 48.5k, which makes this a -EV play.
Scenario 2: Villain's flop cbetting range is capped such that they don't cbet sets or KK+ on this dry board, and they still bet/fold the AK/AQ with BDFD's:
This spot is only marginally better for us. We pick up 6% fold equity and about 3% more equity when called, but our total Chip EV is still only around 53,200.
These scenarios are pretty quick and dirty and we could certainly play with villain's range, but I think this is enough to show that check/shoving is generally going to be -EV here. I do think the lead is pretty interesting, although it is probably likely that given stack sizes villain may shove over a lead with many decent value hands. I kind of like flatting the flop cbet and leading a lot of turns. Would have to do some CREV analysis to see if that is very profitable, but it seems it would put a lot of pressure on our opponent's range on a lot of turns.
August 10, 2014
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Foucault said:
I like calling pre, even against a nit you'll win often enough when an Ace flops to warrant calling, I think. Not a fan of ck/jamming flop, V may not cbet AK/AQ and you block them anyway. I'd strongly consider donking. Given V's size, I'd call and bluff rivers if turn checks through to get him off of better Ax.
Thanks, Foucault!
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