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November 4, 2013
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I'm currently playing a $5 turbo MTT, still in the extended late registration. About 15-18 will be paid, 1st will take about $150-$170.
After about 30 hands the villain has VPIP 40, PFR 12, limp 43, Cbet 67, steal 33, no stats on resteal. He has been open limping quite a bit, not really 3xing much. When he opens for 3x here in the CO, I figure he's got a decent hand that could be premium but doesn't have to be. Probably 77+, A8s+, ATo+
Merge Network $400 Gtd – [Turbo, Deep] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t150.00/t300.00 Blinds + t30.00 – 9 players – View hand 2352055
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
roachie762 (UTG+1): BB = 10.0, t2996
bluffyouallday (UTG+2): BB = 14.8, t4433
Luckyw001 (MP1): BB = 20.3, t6095
2smokedout (MP2): BB = 12.8, t3850
jedinite84 (CO): BB = 59.5, t17843
hitman987 (BTN): BB = 56.7, t17009
Hero (SB): BB = 38.4, t11520
gooogetta (BB): BB = 17.5, t5250
proflopper (UTG): BB = 45.1, t13524
Pre Flop: (t720) Hero is SB with 7
7
5 folds, jedinite84 raises to t900.00, 1 fold, Hero calls t750, 1 fold
Here I didn't want to 3bet because of the likely indicators (him often limping and not often stealing) that he could just shove and show 99-AA, and if he flatted, I would be in an awkward spot out of position. I don't think the existing pot would have been a large enough win to take the risk of shoving. But I didn't want to fold because my hand could easily become so valuable. I figured it was ulikely the BB would shove (his fold to steal was 100%) and decided to make the call to mine a good flop.
I could see reasons to fold, flat or raise preflop and am not sure what the best move would be.
Thank you all in advance for any thoughts!
November 4, 2013
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I don't really see much of any reason to fold preflop. You outlined the reasons to not 3 bet pre, but I still don't think 3 bet/folding would be the worst idea in the world. If that's going to be a plan in your 3 bet scenario, then just size it small.
Set mining here is perfectly fine. Being that it's a turbo, and flop he connects with is likely to play for stacks. The real question you need to ask yourself is how are you going to proceed on a J52 rainbow board. Something that doesn't really scare you because it misses nearly his entire range.
There is a funny connection I've noticed in poker, mostly in the live tournaments though. I can even admit to being swayed by it somedays – A raise of 3.5x used to be standard. Then it became 3x. Then 2.5x. Now anywhere between 2x and 2.5x is pretty standard. So when a player now opens to 3x or 3.5x, it starts setting off alarm bells. Why would he raise so much? If a player opens to 5x, I'm often finding myself as dumbfounded. We have conditioned ourselves to playing certain raise sizes, so quite often we forget that a good % of players don't follow the new strategies. They play their cards, the way they want to. They open shove with JJ for 150BB still because they don't like to play JJ postflop. To you and I, this will seem absurd, but to them it's perfectly rational.
While this doesn't help set a range for this player, keep in mind that just because he raised to 3x, doesn't mean the relative strength of your hand has to change. If anything, he's made it much easier to bloat a pot vs him should you flop a set.
September 29, 2012
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I think you are ranging your opponent wrong. First, you don't have a large enough sample on him to indicate he won't steal when given the opportunity. Second, his steal stats are 33%. Third, he opened from the cutoff. I would say at this point I'd be pretty comfortable putting him on 22+, AX, KT+, QT+, and JT at the minimum.
At the outset, I would have to consider 77 to be ahead of his range. Now whether you 3 bet or not depends on his tendencies. How often will he fold/call/4bet? Since we don't know enough on him for this we have to assume, that since he's tending to loose and he likes to see flops, that he will call with a large part of his range and 4 bet with his premium hands. If he uses that above range, folds the bottom half of his AX hands, 4 bets premiums, and flats the rest of his range he will have this:
26.2% he will fold and you win 1,620
8% he will 4 bet to which you fold and lose 2,250 (assuming your 3 bet is 2.5x)
65.8 of the time he flats. The pot is 5,220 and your equity in this pot would be 54%. The simplest way to evaluate your post flop equity is just to use your equity versus his hand range. Of course post flop skills and his tendencies to play hit or miss post flop and fold too often to a c-bet affect this. You can assume your real equity may be slightly more.
That would seem to value a 3 bet at cEV +2,099.
If you flat, you have 55% equity against his opening range. Additionally, your implied odds here are getting short. Granted you do get 15:1 implied odds, but since his range is so weak here, there's not much guarantee he will stack off too often when you do hit your set. So if you do flat, you have to flat with the intention of continuing on all good boards, even when you miss your set. This would cause you to make a lot of guesses post flop.
I think I prefer to 3 bet/fold in this spot, take control of the hand with his marginal range hands that he is likely to call your 3 bet with, with the intention to c-bet often, then analyze the turn if he calls.
November 4, 2013
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One thing also to keep in mind is the BB stack size. If Villian is a thinking player, he's going to know that he can open here and almost never be 3b light because any 3b is committed to calling a shove from the BB.
With that, I think I'm opting to 3b more often than flat. Intention will be to call a shove from BB, but fold if BB shoves and Villian calls/overshoves. I would probably have to 3b call/prayforflip a shove from villian, but that's personal discretion. 3b folding to Villian isn't the end of the world.
November 4, 2013
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Thank you guys very much for your responses.
OneMoreTime, in reponse to your question about JXX flop after a flat, I'm thinking check/raise but fold to an overbet, and if he checks the flop, bet 3/4 pot on the turn unless an AK or Q hits?
jjpregler, thank you for your correction about his opening range. Maybe I was thinking too much about the 3x, as OneMoreTime suggested. I shall become more aggressive as per both of your pieces of advise. What kind of 3bet size would be ideal for this? We want him to fold, (yeah?) so I am thinking 2500?
The real flop:
Flop: (t2370) K
6 A
(2 players)
Hero checks, jedinite84 bets t1185.00, Hero folds
Rainbow, (unlike what I recalled before editing) but bad, so I checked, he bet and I folded.
My initial guess above to check raise the JXX flop is starting to bug me now. Especially considering jjpregler's statement about the range being wider – JXX hits this new range a bit better so maybe if I flatted preflop I really should just fold anything but low boards?
I'll keep my answer near what I said above though – check/raise to a small bet (not to a 2/3 pot bet) fold to a reraise, bet on a good turn if he checks the flop.
November 7, 2013
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I like to keep it pretty simple until it gets deep, I'd just flat for set value and proceed from flop.
If lots of high cards hit, get out of the way.
If low card that likely miss his range, call and evaluate turn.
November 4, 2013
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I folded a button to this same villain a round or so before the hand I posted above. Perhaps I should have 3bet this hand:
Merge Network $400 Gtd – [Turbo, Deep] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100.00/t200.00 Blinds + t20.00 – 8 players – View hand 2352777
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
th3push3r1186 (UTG): BB = 24.9, t4980
bluffyouallday (UTG+1): BB = 27.6, t5528
changinglanes (MP1): BB = 13.7, t2738
jedinite84 (MP2): BB = 96.9, t19383
hitman987 (CO): BB = 52.5, t10494
Hero (BTN): BB = 51.9, t10370
Birdland48 (SB): BB = 22.7, t4540
proflopper (BB): BB = 70.1, t14014
Pre Flop: (t460) Hero is BTN with 2 A
3 folds, jedinite84 raises to t400.00, 4 folds
I'm actually pretty surprised I folded this. Still so deep, I would have liked to see his reaction to some more 3betting by me.
November 7, 2013
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You definitely have the chips to be 3 betting in position.
All depends on villian if he is gonna be hyper aggressive and 4 bet light than nah, but if he flats 3 bet oop a lot than I think it's good.
If he folds to cbets a lot than cbet but if he raises cbets a lot I like to c/f and c/r turn to put pressure on him.
January 28, 2013
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We can 3b/f to original raiser and 3b/c the BB here. I think this would be my bottom range for 3b/c the BB tho and id much rather a slightly better medium pair. This really is stat/read dependant tho. On most boards when BB folds and original raiser calls most likely its a cbet, give up- unless we flop a set or gain additional equity on the turn.
September 29, 2012
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OneTime1Time said:
One thing also to keep in mind is the BB stack size. If Villian is a thinking player, he's going to know that he can open here and almost never be 3b light because any 3b is committed to calling a shove from the BB.
With that, I think I'm opting to 3b more often than flat. Intention will be to call a shove from BB, but fold if BB shoves and Villian calls/overshoves. I would probably have to 3b call/prayforflip a shove from villian, but that's personal discretion. 3b folding to Villian isn't the end of the world.
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