April 6, 2013
Ok so this is a complicated spot. Let me break down villains preflop.
UTG+1 is playing 41/0/1 over 37 hands. Two things about this. One, they probably have a lot of the possible JJ-AA/AQ/AK combos here. Two, their overall range though is obviously quite weak and keeping them in has value.
MP2 is playing 19/8/2 over 150 hands.
CO is new and unknown and hails from Brazil.
I can probably profitably three-bet get it in to 4444 v the CO, but I don't really want to for 40 bigs. We are approaching bubble, and its a huge big soft tournament. Course, I could be wrong.
Poker Stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t200/t400 Blinds + t50 – 9 players – View hand 2194489
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
MP2: BB = 53.7, t21488
CO: BB = 42.3, t16929
Hero (BTN): BB = 45.6, t18248
SB: BB = 8.3, t3330
BB: BB = 24.9, t9956
UTG: BB = 24.9, t9954
UTG+1: BB = 102.7, t41078
UTG+2: BB = 15.7, t6285
MP1: BB = 30.7, t12261
Pre Flop: (t1050) Hero is BTN with T T
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t400, 2 folds, MP2 calls t400, CO raises to t2000, Hero calls t2000, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls t1600, MP2 calls t1600
Flop: (t9050) T J Q (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets t4000, Hero
Careful what you wish for 🙂
Originally, I thought I was with Pac. One of them obviously has at least a draw to something everytime. There is no “value” to keeping anyone in the hand at this point because your hand is too vulnerable. Without 3-betting here, you don't have any info and have given up your positional advantage in the sense that if you 3bet and get a call, the caller is 9/10 time checking to you.
As played, I actually think I am flatting here and re-evaulating the turn. If a 4 card straight hits the turn, I am shutting it down and moving on with my 30 bbs…..unless the villian bets something super small where I know my odds (coupled with river implied odds) to hit a boat are giving me the right price.
My style of play is weird tho….definitely depends on the feel. It's hope it's not like that Darvin Moon “I had the nuts, when you see me on TV you will say 'He's a honest man'” hand. Basically, I think you have to 3bet in this spot over a guy who is obviously trying to iso limpers. The utg limper I dont think ever has AA-JJ here because if he limped to slow play, once he sees you call the PFR from the button it's shove time for him. Either way, if you three bet it looks super strong and you find out really quick what you are up against. Bubble play is way better agg than passive.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
Hmm, interesting spot. Here are my thoughts.
The flat pre seems fine, readless getting it in here is optimistic at best. 3 betting isnt the worst of the options, but its effectively turning a great hand into a meh spot.
On the flop we have a couple things going on. We have the best hand here a majority of the time. Is shoving profitable? yes obviously we have a set lol. However lets look at calling here. First lets evaluate the cards that we dont want to see. Bascially if we call, we expect the two bad limpers(MP2 may not be bad but whatever) to call with anything resembling a draw. The cards we dont want to see are a/k/8/9, all other cards are somehwat fine for us.
Now before you say it, i know there is a flush draw, the problem arises with whether or not a shove is getting these flush draws to fold. what we are most worried about here with flatting is keeping in hands that would fold to a shove(something like A9 or something), and letting them get there. Odds are anybody that got to this flop with two spades is now never folding.
So we are afraid of 4 cards, or about 25% of the deck(roughly). So 75% of the time on the turn we expect to be happy about where we stand and can get it in, again with the best hand a lot.
Obviously are goal when flatting here is to get money in from the 2 people that checked that wouldnt have put money in if we shoved. So if you have a read they will do this a lot, then I like calling.
Shoving on the other hand, is definitely +EV and takes out a lot of the guesswork. I would probably default to shoving here without reads that the two limpers are going to donate/spaz.
Shoving also has the added value of getting max value when flush draws miss, its not guaranteed a flush draw will gii with you on the turn if its a blank. with only 1 card to come. however calling could get a weak hand to check shove frmoa limper, then CO can get in a ahnd liek AA/KK/AQ thnking he has to have a better hand then you lol. This spot can really go either way.
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