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April 26, 2013
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This is from a FT of a $11 1R1A tournament on stars.eu. We are 7-handed. Blinds increase every 10 minutes, stacks are getting pretty low.
The button opener steals 50% but seems nitty when risking his tournament life. I am sure he folds often enough to make shoving QJs here +EV. Nonetheless there is one babystack with less than 8 BBs, so I wonder if just flatting here might be better. We are OOP in the SB, so I don't love it. My main question is: Can we ever just find a fold looking at ICM here and wait for a more secure spot to get it in?
I know this was a cooler considering the BBs holding, but wonder if we took an unnecessary risk here.
PokerStars Hand #139304193076: Tournament #1292680735, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit – Level XXXIV blinds (12500/25000/3125) – 2015/08/13 0:29:59 CET [2015/08/12 18:29:59 ET]
Table '1292680735 59' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: dizimind (618420 in chips)
Seat 3: ColinsFil (199190 in chips)
Seat 4: XxJoaoFeraxX (865882 in chips)
Seat 5 (button): keberge (424692 in chips)
Seat 7 (SB): Hero (376218 in chips)
Seat 8 (BB): j8_diego (1688598 in chips)
dizimind: posts the ante 3125
ColinsFil: posts the ante 3125
XxJoaoFeraxX: posts the ante 3125
keberge: posts the ante 3125
Hero: posts the ante 3125
j8_diego: posts the ante 3125
Hero: posts small blind 12500
j8_diego: posts big blind 25000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Q
J]
dizimind: folds
ColinsFil: folds
XxJoaoFeraxX: folds
keberge (button): raises 25000 to 50000
Hero (SB): raises 323093 to 373093 and is all-in
j8_diego: raises 323093 to 696186
keberge: folds
Uncalled bet (323093) returned to j8_diego
*** FLOP *** [4
4
3]
*** TURN *** [4 4 3] [6]
*** RIVER *** [4 4 3 6] [A]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [Qd Jd] (a pair of Fours)
j8_diego: shows [K A] (two pair, Aces and Fours)
j8_diego collected 814936 from pot
Hero finished the tournament in 6th place and received $591.17.
May 20, 2013
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If you flat, the BB could make it very difficult for you depending on how he has been here at the FT. I dont really like the spot with 16BB and a raiser whom I cant flat. I would rather look for a spot. Even if the BB isnt going to play, you are going to want the button to fold when you do this… do you expect you have fold equity here?
April 26, 2013
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ltcolumbo said:
do you expect you have fold equity here?
Yes of course, I think he should be folding about 50% of his range, if not more. He was basically stealing whenever possible, especially from the button. I'd never try to get it in with a Q-high hand if I'd expect to have little to no FE in an ICM spot.
June 11, 2012
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really torn on this one. but i am far from good in ICM situations. Its def good from a cEV perspective. might be good from an ICM point as well as villains stacks is pretty vulnerable too.
would love if someone runs the math on this for ICM
July 15, 2015
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Im also not an ICM expert, but I think that shoving is correct. It is true that ICM dictates we have a narrow shoving range here with the big stack in the BB and a short stack still at the table. But QJs belongs in even very narrow shoving ranges. Nash includes QJs in even a 19bb shove from UTG, which is only shoving 7% of hands. I know these situations aren't directly comparable (19bb UTG no ICM), but it just illustrates how tight we need to be shoving before we remove QJs from our shoving range. I think we stick it in unless we have evidence that BB is calling extra wide.
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