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March 4, 2014
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Hey, guys! I am wondering what factors it is needed to put into consideration when considering deal at the final table and in what circumstances it is worth to consider the deal? Also maybe there are some good articles on that topic you can refer to?
March 8, 2013
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The way I see it there are two factors – the value of your chips and the value of your skill.
The value of your chips can generally be approximated pretty well with ICM. There are many resources to help you calculate this if you don't know how already.
The value of your skill is of course more difficult to quantify. I sometimes play low buy-in live tournaments, where the players are mediocre at deep-stack play and utterly abysmal at short stacks. People frequently try to make deals, and I am honest with them that I will only take a deal that is clearly in my favor. I generally want at least 150% of what my stack is worth.
September 24, 2013
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In addition to markconkle's answer, you should consider making a deal to minimize variance in large field tournaments. If you feel you're up against better players, making the deal is probably a good idea, since you will get more than your average fair share of the prizepool (if we believe that skills defeats luck over time :-)). If you feel you have an edge against the other players, you should probably only make the deal if you're far behind.
Mostly you will do a deal in one of two ways: Chipchop or ICM. The difference between the two is that the ICM tries to account for the dynamics in the tournament, e.g. the fact that only one hand can seriously change everything at the end in the a tournament, whereas the chip chop reflects the current tourney stands and ICM is the best logical prediction of how a tourney would actually play out.
The ICM deal is better if you are the short stack because you always have a chance of winning more chips, which will put you in a better position, i.e. your chance of winning a higher amount of the prizepool. The chipchop equals the monetary amount of the remaining prizepool, and thus would be a better deal if you are the chipleader or have many chips in relation to the other remaining players, simply because there is a chance thant you can loose your chiplead before the tournament is over.
March 8, 2013
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In the live tourneys I play, often 6-7 players at the final table even just want to do an even chop. This frequently includes players that have 2 or 3 times the average stack! Of course, you should take this deal if you have significantly less than average.
Coldcall brings up a good point by mentioning chip chop. I would disagree that chip chop “reflects the current tourney stands” and say instead that chip chop is what ignorant people use because they don't understand ICM.
A chip chop will frequently give the chip leader more than first place prize, even if he has fewer than half of the chips at the table! Of course you should make this deal if you are the chip leader!
In summary, ICM is close to accurate. If your opponents are dumb enough to want to make a deal based on chip chop, color of shirt, or any other idiotic method, take it if it's in your favor!
April 26, 2013
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An other important factor, when I consider making a deal, is the question what % of my BR the expected winnings represent.
If I increase my BR by less than 10% for the case that I should finish 1st and I feel I might have an edge on most players left, I am very unlikely to consider a deal.
On the other hand, if there are only very good players left and the money I will win affects my BR by 40% – 100%+ then I am much more inclined to reduce variance and go for a good deal. My reasoning beeing, that if I bust early and only increase my BR by say 30% compared to making a deal and increasing it by 80% has a significant impact on my future buyin range. Playing for the win and say increasing it by 200% would be nice, but I believe that taking the safer route here is a good idea, especially when you are not sure if you have an edge on most of the players left.
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