(oh, the post is titled 'final table bubble' — overlooked that bit earlier).

Probably check/call, I would want to try to keep the pot small. Also am a little interested in what the big blind is going to do, if the big blind bets and the button raises I would feel pretty good about laying this down. If the big blind checks and the button bets I'm going to call at least one street to see what happens. If they both check then I'm probably going to lead the turn.

I'd be a little concerned about the possibility of a slow-played monster from the button and would have to make some kind of estimation based on his limping frequency. I think it's more likely that he has a hand that he would like to see a flop with but doesn't want to call a shove with. I can't imagine him being too afraid to call a shove with most pocket pairs especially since he's notorious for seeing flops and would think he'd rather raise most pocket pairs preflop than limp and have to deal with overcards. I think it's pretty safe to rule out most of those so that pretty much leaves monster hands, reasonably good connectors, (suited for the smaller ones but not necessarily the lower broadway cards and like T9, maybe even 89o) and maybe some crappy aces, suited or not, that he wouldn't want to call a shove with… maybe.

Most people are probably only slow playing AA, KK, and QQ… there just aren't that many hands that comprise that range. The hands that I see limping there most productively are T9-Q9 and maybe K9-KJ. My first guesstimate would be on that subset. Which means that any broadway cards that fall on the turn or river are potentially tres bad.

I think our hand is too good to fold without a solid reason, but can't stand much pressure either. I hate playing this passively from the blinds because I feel like it's very transparent, at the same time, I think avoiding a large pot is more important.

Another thing that warrants consideration when deciding whether or not to shove is the dynamic that exists between yourself and the player on the button. You mentioned that you hadn't played against him before, but have the pots you've played with him throughout the tournament been heavily contested? Is there a strong sense of rivalry or even animosity between you two? Is ego enough of a factor that he either 'wants to get you' or would call you lighter out of spite? Generally speaking, the friendlier your interactions the more likely I'd think he'd be to fold.

His perception of your play is also an important consideration. Does he have reason to believe that he can trap you? Has he seen you shove at all light? If he thinks you're nitty then there's no reason to limp marginal hands and he's more likely to be slow playing. I can't possibly describe the entire range of perceptions he might have, but they can potentially make a big difference.

After looking at the ranges I proposed above and the underlying assumption that he may be limping here because he's tentative about calling a shove, shoving preflop looks like a better option than I had originally thought, better than the numbers may seem to indicate anyway.

It's a tough spot though, especially being on the final table bubble; earlier or later in the tournament it's a fair amount easier to shove here.