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Final Table bubble Hand on Full Tilt's $1.5 million guarantee
rebel4444
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April 12, 2011 - 10:57 am
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I have been going over this hand for 2 days now trying to think of what was actually the correct play. I will be upfront and thell you that this was a bad beat when my A-9off lost to 9-6 off when we were all in preflop but that's not why i am posting.

 

here are the details 5 handed at our table, blinds are 60k-120k with 15k ante.  I am 9th in chips with 2.6 Million in the SB, Villain(Brazilian) is the clear chip leader with over 11 million in the BB and hase been super aggressive with his shoves pre pushing people off hands.

 

Folded to me in the SB – I know there is now way I am ever folding in this spot. The questioons is tdo I open to 2.5x and call a shove (which I did) in an attempt to double up and better position me top win or do i just shove and be happy to take the 255k in the pot already? 

 

Obviosuly the money jumps were significant and I have been questioning if I should have just shoved and not given him the cahnce to get lucky.

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RonFezBuddy
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April 12, 2011 - 12:27 pm
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God that's a really tough spot.  you can almost make a case for shoving or raise/folding A9 but given the description of villain A9 is pretty much the nuts here BvB.  I think i go for the standard raise (as you did) and try to induce a spewey shove.

 

You really do need to accumulate chips and it seems like this guy is bullying the FT bubble and will shove super wide.

flgtb786
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April 12, 2011 - 1:54 pm
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Id just jam. be happy with the little pick up.

tomnovicki
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April 12, 2011 - 3:13 pm
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i'd jam too to be honest but.. that might be a leak actually

rebel4444
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April 12, 2011 - 5:46 pm
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As mentioned I raise and called his shove but I've been thinking all day that maybe I should have just shoved and been happy with his fold instead of putting my tournamnet life on the and waited for a better spot.  Even if he is holding J-8 or somethin similar I would only be 60-40.  Raise folding was never an option for me. The pay jumps were huge, 13k for 10th, 19k for 9th and 27k for 8th and grow from there.

ttwist

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April 12, 2011 - 7:46 pm
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i take off from the foul line and jam it.

Cougars4444
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April 13, 2011 - 2:58 pm
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I would play the hand like you did.  Especially given how the opponent has been playing.  I realize the payjumps from 10th to 8th are pretty big but if we hold here or win a 60/40 we have a much better chance at a top 3 finish where the payouts are extremely high.  I'd take the risk and the opportunity to double up and give ourselves a better shot at top 3.

rebel4444
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April 13, 2011 - 7:21 pm
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Thanks for the feedback everyone, obviously this hand has been a tough to get over but i think that ultimately, my goal was to try and win the tournament and therefore had to give the villain a chance to to duoble me up, even if the best i could have realistically hoped for was probably a 60-40 edge.

hapetimes
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April 14, 2011 - 4:55 am
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Im 100% playing exactly the same way you did. This spot is very common in STT SnG's esp at low limits.

If you open jam, he folds a lot of hands that he otherwise reshipps (like 96o)

At the risk of making myself look silly ill try and explain it in detail;

When we Raise-call and he shoves 96o, hes shoving 68% of hands

We are therefore 60/40 favourite to double up against this range

Our profit will be 2.915m (our double plus blinds and antes)

 

Raise/call + win 0.6×2.915m = 1.749m

Raise/call + lose 0.4×2.6m = -1.04m

 

If we jam we need to assign him a calling range (id say if he was loose approx 20%)

This is A4s+,A9o+,66+, and most broadway combos

We are 46/54 dog against his calling range, but we win blinds and antes if he folds 80% of the time right?

 

Jam/he calls + we win 0.46×2.915m = +1.3409m

Jam/he calls + we lose 0.54×2.6m = -1.404m

Jam/he folds + we win 0.8×0.315m(blinds and antes) = +0.252m

 

Overall the raise call option would net us an average of 709,000 chips or almost 6BBs

The jam option 188,900 chips or just 1.5BBs

The only thing that changes these numbers is his assumed calling range when we jam (b/c we already know what his 3bet jam range is)

If he widens his calling range to 40% (44+,Any ace,K2s+,K7o+,Q4s+,Q8o+,J7s+,J8o+,T7s+,T9o+,97s) then the difference becomes minimal, in fact 23,000 chips

 

Looking at these numbers, jamming is still a marginally plus EV play, however, inferior to the raise call option in this case.

As cougars said you'd have a great shot at top 3 as opposed to searching for future spots to shove with a short stack when he folds all that rubbish to you.

I hope that all made sense and i hope it helped

FkCoolers
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April 14, 2011 - 6:43 am
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Considering he'll jam any Ace it's a raise/call and it's not even close in my opinion. Tough to do in real time play but it's better than shoving.

BuddhaX
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April 14, 2011 - 2:17 pm
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You played it correctly in my opinion.

MrMangoTango
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April 16, 2011 - 7:45 am
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How ANYONE can say that it is a jam is beyond my knowledge. Clearly a raise to induce a spewey shove. A9 is as previously mentioned pretty much the nuts in that spot.

 

If you want to win big and keep making it deep you have to embrace a opp like this.

 

WP, next time it stands 😉

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