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March 18, 2013
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Hello all! New member and very excited to have this forum. Haven't had time to check everything out but familiar with the podcast and looking forward to seeing the rest. Here is my first hand to post:
Final table. Top 7 paid. 7th = $650ish while 1st = about $6000. I'd played 62 hands with the flatter (MP1) and his stats were 19/10/0. He had shown up with T8 defending blinds. Shover was 18/11/3 after 88 hands. BB was 51/47/20 after 50 hands. Others pretty standard.
What is your play? Shove or fold?
Trying to import hand until my action and will post result later:
$200 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 100 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
MP1: 42,474 (42.5 bb)
MP2: 20,438 (20.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): 21,958 (22 bb)
CO: 79,825 (79.8 bb)
BTN: 6,618 (6.6 bb)
SB: 118,945 (118.9 bb)
BB: 101,695 (101.7 bb)
UTG+1: 12,719 (12.7 bb)
UTG+2: 7,828 (7.8 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J
J
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 7,728 and is all-in, MP1 calls 7,728, MP2 folds
May 30, 2012
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i probably ship it and expect mp to fold the vast majority of the time and have us crushed virtually never
May 30, 2012
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Shit it all day every day…….
March 18, 2013
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More info on the flatter. He had already min raised once from EP at FT and then shoved 37 BBs into a 5 BB pot on 886 rbow flop. He had also raised UTG (a 3x raise) and took down the antes and blinds. We were on our second orbit.
I'm searching through a few hands I played in an earlier tournament against him to see if there is anything more relevant.
January 15, 2013
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We have 22BB – I pile it in here for sure. just my $.02
March 18, 2013
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I agree with posters so far and would normally not think twice about shipping this but are there ICM considerations that would dictate a fold? 9 left and 7 pay with a short stack all in (and called) and stacks of 7 bb and 13 bb still at the table. $0 for 8th. $600+ for 7th.
March 17, 2013
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It’s a ship. Also ICM problems are eased for you because the short stack is all in on this hand rather than sitting out and freerolling a pay jump and you and the original flatter have his range crushed.
March 18, 2013
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Not sure how the short stack all in eases ICM here. He's finishing 9th. 8th = $0 and I'm covered by flatter so a shove and call by better still an ICM disaster.
March 18, 2013
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I wanted to mention also that this hand has generated pretty good discussion on 2+2 with a lot of folks posting (but not voting) that it's an easy fold. Thanks again for any and all discussion.
May 30, 2012
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Just like Muckedup said……… for my .02 cents. It's a NO BRAINER stuffy baker this in their face. If he wakes up with AA, KK………….. OH WELL………… With 20bb's I'm never folding JJ unless it was raise, reraise, rereraise, LOL and then I'm still going to think about shipping it.
March 18, 2013
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here are the payouts:
1st – $5250
2nd – $3375
3rd – $2250
4th – $1500
5th – $1125
6th – $825
7th – $675
8th – $0
9th – $0
May 30, 2012
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I can't see how you fold JJ here. Where are you playing this tourney? I hear what you are saying about 8/9 get $0, but I'm shoving this all day every day unless it's the Main Event Final tbl…………. Ivey folded JJ to Shulman. Maybe I'm wrong, lol. I am still an amateur ……….
May 30, 2012
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Where in 2+2 do you have this hand posted? Interested to see what those wackos say? 🙂
March 18, 2013
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Sorry should have mentioned that it's an online “high stakes” tournament but with a big overlay. One of the 6 pm tourneys at Lock.
May 30, 2012
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I understand ICM and you are on the bubble, but if he's been an active playing with a wide range, he could be doing this with 66/88 or AK/AQ/AJ…… Unless this is Allen Kessler/Dan Harrington or someone other tight player that I know is tight I'm shipping it.
Cause if he's truely a very capable player he could show something like 88 or AJ.
Just my thoughts……….
What are you doing there with QQ? It's the same………….
March 18, 2013
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Definitely not arguing your point. Just interested to hear the other side because I think you could make a very strong ICM argument to fold but ultimately, I think you are right. I expect to be dominated very little of the time. The folks on the other forum seem to think a higher likelihood of being crushed by QQ-AA which I think is interesting. I'd never flat in that spot if I were him.
March 18, 2013
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Do you think I have any fold equity or do you think I just dominate his range to such an extent that a shove is +EV? If I have fold equity, then the ICM considerations are much less. If he's going to call every time, then variance increases and I have to consider ICM more.
March 18, 2013
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Sorry, one more point. I don't think he's a capable player. See post 4 regarding earlier action.
May 30, 2012
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no arguing, we're are in these forums to TALK about opinions and situations. I know there are some A-holes in 2+2 that believe that are the greatest and believe their opinions are the correct ones…………
If I thinks he's a moh-moh………… or someone who's all over the place. I'm jamming all day. If he's a GOOD/competent thinking player, I think I jam 50% and fold 50%, it is ALL dependant on the game flow and how you think of your opponent.
Most of it is your read on how he is playing and what's happened the last few hands and maybe his g/f just texted him and said you are NOT getting ANY “STUFF” when you get home. Maybe he's mad now, lol.
July 3, 2010
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The ICM tool I just ran said to go with QQ+ which I sort of expected would be the results for overcalling/shipping ranges.
ICM makes ranges way tighter than people think. If we can't remove better pairs, and we can't do this despite the fact that he sounds like a fish, I think it's a super tough in-game fold but a correct one to make.
With the shover having a decent chance of a busting and a 6.5 bb stack left at the table for the remaining bust before we're in the money, I think you have to fold JJ.
I just don't see many people folding JJ here.
May 30, 2012
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i think ICM arguments are made extremely weaker by the relative stacks of the other players. especially since we have 20bb if we have 35-40bb icm becomes a much more important factor
January 15, 2013
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I used to find that the flat to the ss all in at this stage to scream monster but more and more I am finding that, especially with non regs, that this is a individual who has a decent hand, doesn't know what to do with, and chooses the worst option. Thus, with all the factors cited I am shoving as many have indicated.
June 11, 2012
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its an easy fold all day. MP has KK, AA there almost always in a HSMTT
and even if we look at uncle nashovsky it would be a fold if they both played optimal:
R 7.7k UTG+1 16.1%, 33+ A2s+ ATo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs
3B 42k MP1 3.7%, TT+ AQs+ AKo
C 22k MP3 0.9%, KK+
with taking ICM into consideration
cheers
December 10, 2012
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With stats of 19/10/0 he’s likely flatting and not 3 betting a large part of his range. As such I wouldn’t be too concerned with an overpair here and would shove.
March 18, 2013
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To me, the most interesting and overlooked aspect of this hand is the disparity of stack size particularly the huge stacks in the sb/bb and how/if their ability to play deepstack poker changes the flatters range at all. I know their presence would eliminate flatting premiums from my game but maybe that’s a leak of mine b/c a lot of people say they’d flat kk-AA all day in that spot. I look to avoid giving more than one monster stack the option to flat behind and gobble up short stacks. They can put me in a weird spot post flop. Eliminate the ICM/bubble worries and I think the EP % of flatting monsters goes way up. So if ICM is enough to make us fold JJ when there has been little to no aggression shown with 22 bb then isn’t it enough to make him want to reduce variance even subconsciously (even if he’s not a thinking player). If so, and we can reduce his range to almost exclusively pairs and giving a discount to bigger pairs, does that change the ICM math enough to make it a shove given the read I’ve described?
June 11, 2012
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i dont see the point why you want to discourage big stacks from playing with you. more then not if such a shorty is all in and gets flatted by a mid stack, the big stacks also tend to come over the top and you get the desired results.
and playing IP vs big stacks should also not be much of a concern.
additionally flatting gives other small stacks the opporunity to feel prized in with hands such as 98s,JTs, pairs and so on.
i very well believe that not having the AA,KK flat in your range here is a leak especially with such a mainac as the BB is
cheers
TPE Pro
June 14, 2012
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Leaning toward a fold here, even if we know the flatter is clueless.
FkCoolers said:
The ICM tool I just ran said to go with QQ+ which I sort of expected would be the results for overcalling/shipping ranges.
ICM makes ranges way tighter than people think. If we can't remove better pairs, and we can't do this despite the fact that he sounds like a fish, I think it's a super tough in-game fold but a correct one to make.
With the shover having a decent chance of a busting and a 6.5 bb stack left at the table for the remaining bust before we're in the money, I think you have to fold JJ.
I just don't see many people folding JJ here.
I think I agree with Coolers.
March 18, 2013
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Over 50 posts at 2+2. Prefer conversation here but I think that thread is worth reading if you want to spend the time. I’m sure nobody is as interested as me though so just throwing it out there for you bored sickos out there. Thanks again.
before i answer, im curious to know everyone's flatting range here if we were MP1?????
March 18, 2013
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That's the question I kept asking! I've been ripped on pretty good for discounting premiums in this situation, mostly on 2+2. I attribute the discount mostly to chip stack disparity and the monster stacks sitting in the blinds but also other potential flatters. I don't want to play this hand 4 handed (including shover) OOP even with a monster given huge ICM. I'd look to reduce variance every time. You? Heard a podcast that made me think you might. I'm not saying I take premiums out of his range entirely, but a bit of a discount goes a long way in this spot. No?
To answer the question, I gave his range almost all pairs, about 77-TT, AKo, AKs and discount to QQ-AA. That's about it. I'm not saying I was right though. Crap, I still think ICM is right and its a fold after typing that. lol I don't want to flip against AK and he's not folding any of those hands so fold equity is nil and ICM should overcome my little discount to premiums. Add some smaller pairs to his range though and…
will revisit in a couple days, but ill ask the community again
What hands are we flatting from MP1?
what hands are we raising from MP1?
are we re-shoving any hands from MP1?
Once we get 5-6 responses, we can determine what the best play is with jj in your spot
TPE Management
August 7, 2012
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Id like to make it clear I didnt look at any of the other responses. So this response is just based on my thoughts only and no other influence. With 0 information on the people at the table I think I probrably just stuffy baker right in this flatters face. I just think he is flatting stuff like 7s 8s 9s 10s etc maybe even kq. However although some people wont like this response this decision for the most part should be made mostly on game flow. If the guy is doing fishy stuff being agg playing weird etc etc. Its a tough spot and real close imo. But I think its a stuff just because in general people playing on lock are not great at tournament poker.
Bigdog
TPE Pro
August 3, 2011
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Looks like a pretty clear shove to me. And i completely agree with Casey. He can flat and fold to reships with a ton of hands you have crushed. If we are really worried about him flatting the top (AA/KK/QQ) in this particular spot when we have JJ I think thats super nitty and we have to go for the win. A cooler is a cooler in most cases.
March 18, 2013
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Okay, now I'm totally mindf'd again. Thought I had it settled in my head that this was a tempting shove but a mathematical fold. Now I've got elite type pros (thanks to BigDog, DN, etc) saying that it's an easy shove. At points, I've felt silly for even posting this hand on other forums because it was a “trivial” fold. Great approach from Marc too. Look forward to hearing what people think. I'd love to hear somebody firmly in the fold camp hash it out with Casey/Danny. Thanks again.
July 30, 2012
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Clarke206 said:
More info on the flatter. He had already min raised once from EP at FT and then shoved 37 BBs into a 5 BB pot on 886 rbow flop. He had also raised UTG (a 3x raise) and took down the antes and blinds. We were on our second orbit.
March 18, 2013
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Thanks for the post! Clearly, most of my stats on the flatter were from an earlier tournament with totally different dynamics at a much earlier stage in the tournament. Ok, here's the FT hand history from the perspective of the flatter:
1. UTG+1 = minraise, got called from BB. Flop 886 rbow. open shove 37k into 5k. take it down. (not good, not good at all)
2. UTG = raise 3x. take it down
3. BB = fold to minraise from mp + 1
4. SB = fold to UTG +1 raiser
5. Button = fold to aggro big stack guy raising from MP (a 3 betn from the blinds took this down)
6. CO = ditto (now aggro guy is UTG+2, still raising)
7. HJ = fold to UTG minraise
8. MP = fold to aggro guy who is still raisin, this time from UTG
…which brings us to our subject hand. Happy to provide any other info.
May 30, 2012
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I normally don't ask………………. but now I want results. People can still give there opinions………… I need to know, lol
March 18, 2013
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I'll give them via PM (just sent you one) or chat room.
July 3, 2010
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DannyN13 said:
Looks like a pretty clear shove to me. And i completely agree with Casey. He can flat and fold to reships with a ton of hands you have crushed. If we are really worried about him flatting the top (AA/KK/QQ) in this particular spot when we have JJ I think thats super nitty and we have to go for the win. A cooler is a cooler in most cases.
I don't agree because it seems like ICM suicide and a huge mistake to bust here with a 6 BB stack left at the table when a min cash is 3x the buy in and we have very good odds of laddering at least once.
TPE Pro
August 3, 2011
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It isn't ICM suicide when we are sitting on 22 bbs and are almost just as short as all other short stacks. Players on these sites are usually not that competent to flat the top here. I don't play to min cash regardless and this seems like a great spot for us to crush his flatting range and possibly even get folds out of him where we destroy the 7 bb players shoving range. We double here and worry more about ICM afterward when we are in the position to get top 3. Do you fold JJ on the cash bubble of an MTT paying more than FT? (I know 7 only here) in this spot? I certainly don't. Yes there is a difference of course but I am just throwing it out there for conversation sake. I am not a huge math poker player I have said that numerous times, but in this particular tournament with given scenario not a chance I fold JJ. Just my opinion obviously.
TPE Pro
August 3, 2011
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*All except the 6 bb stack obv. But prize jump is not significant at all when he busts.
May 30, 2012
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dammit i wrote a huge post and it crashed on me. ill try again
I shove here, ICM doesnt perfectly account for expected monetary gains as it assumes that the only contributing factor to our likely finishing places is our chip stack. it doesnt account for the increased expectation we can derive from having a deeper stack which allows us to raise/fold, 3bet/fold raise/call off the 6bb shorty, play postflop hands without the hand cuff of doing serious damage to our stack.
as an example if everyone stack at the table including ours halved. our ICM calculation would not change. however, in actual game our ability to realise our edge with an 11bb stack would decrease greatly, also this is the same argument used to say that turbos have a lower cap on ROI than deepstack tournaments due to the greater edge we can exert at deeper stacks and how opponents mistakes compund at deeper stack depths.
another consideration i think needs to be addressed is how tough the table is (comparative to our own ability), normal consensus is that we should be more willing to take marginal/slightly -EV spots in tough tables since we are expected to have a negative expectation at this table. given this i think ICM will then overestimate our expected gains at a tough table meaning our gii ranges should be tighter here than ICM says as they are correctly estimating the downside of the equation but overestimating the upside.
however on a soft table where we expect that having a 50-60bb stack gives us a greater than neutral expectation on this table I think our gii range should widen since ICM is likely underestimating our upside.
Coolers ran an ICM calc for this and came out with QQ+, given the above factors (assuming we have a decent edge on this table and that our ability to exert that edge is (at least) linearly related to our stack depth (if not exponentially) ) i think our range can justifiably be widened to at least JJ/AK in this spot.
on the wider discussion of ICM implications i feel it is definitely an incomplete system so far as it doesnt really account for table positions/nits/super fish/strong regs etc.
May 30, 2012
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marc thats tough because its hard to know how the rest of the table plays and how wide the big ones are isolating. its hard to see a call/fold range v anyone but CO/SB/BB from his stack so i imagine 99/1010/AQ/AJs call/fold and KK/AA are his call/call range. but its hard to know whether this is a table he is likely to induce with on or not and given BB stats id imagine that he would isolate (either a min or a shove with QQ+) and call/call everyone but the giants (including us) with a range like 99/1010/AQ/AK and would reship AK JJ+ more often than he is trapping with it.
March 18, 2013
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Great posts and exactly what I was looking for when I joined TPE. As Danny mentioned above, I never play to mincash and this played heavily into my decision. However, there really isn't a mincash in this situation with 7th place being 3x buyin due to overlay which is sort of what creates this crazy dynamic. 22bbs is clearly enough to fold our way to 6th/7th but I had my eyes on doubling and have a great shot at top 3. In retrospect, I think I should have given more consideration to the payout structure. I might hate ICM because it feels like I'm blinding away sometimes in spots I should be aggressive but if the end result is that I make more money over time, can it be wrong? Isn't that what poker and dealing with variance is all about?
July 30, 2012
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Clarke206 said:
1. UTG+1 = minraise, got called from BB. Flop 886 rbow. open shove 37k into 5k. take it down. (not good, not good at all)
2. UTG = raise 3x. take it down
Hard to extrapolate without a sample size, but it sounds like the villain might raise big with weaker holdings. I mean it sounds he was strong in hand 1 (and obv did a awful play on the flop as he'd only getting called by a random 8 basically). And then he 3x from UTG next hand, which sounds like possibly a weak pair or weak Ace.
But in your case, I got the feeling villain could flat monsters quite often here, but given his stack size he could also flat a lot of other hands as he could fold to a shove from the bigger stacks (CO and blinds).
It's tempting to shove JJs in this spot. Not sure if it's because I've just came back from a tourney in which I've spent 2 days navigating with a 20BB stack, and you see all these spots that you can't take because of stack size. I mean, considering MP+1 folds and you take it down, the difference between a 20 and 40BB stack is so huge here.
So my gut feeling is that he has a huge hand here, and as in almost every discussion that generate a lot of discussion it's a close call. Still, in game I think I'd ship it here.
June 22, 2012
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DannyN13 said:
*All except the 6 bb stack obv. But prize jump is not significant at all when he busts.
72oo>AK, K5ss>AQss…call with JJ and run like Danny does in home games FTW…j/k lol
May 30, 2012
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have to say as soon as i saw the post i thought it's a shove
I dont agree with a post above that high stakes players regs ALWAYS have the top of their range here.. i see heaps of weak/weakish MP flat ranges from players in higher buy ins
any half decent player would flat middle pairs, AJs KQs here to give themselves a chance at increasing their stack but risking the least amount of chips given that there are more than a few players to go through
also agree with duggs about ICM esp the fact that it doesnt take into account future pressure we can apply, future 3bet FE, steal and resteal spots etc etc etc
Yeah he may be flatting AA here but in game i just cant see myself folding JJ here
Call, win and climb that ladder
June 26, 2012
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OK. Seems a little tight to fold JJ here. I can understand not wanting to get it in bad but the calculator said QQplus. Just a question as it seems to befuddle me here. If we fold JJ here would we call with QQ. Seems to be the same as JJ here.
What about 1010 or 99. Seems like a extremly tight fold. I am not good enough(especially on Lock) to fold JJ here. It may be spazz city but I ship it.
Wonder what the fold percentage of the flatter is here. Cause stuffing and he folds with a win equals an 38314 stack for
38 BBs. Does a fold factor here in the thinking? Does anyone think since he flats once he flats twice?
Very interesting.
Its been a month. Update on the hand?
March 13, 2013
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Just saw this hand for the first time.
Don't know if I'm trying to think too outside the box, but I was wondering if just flatting the raise was all that bad?
You still have 15bbs (if you eventually have to fold), and MP1 can't bluff you, and will probably just check it down to try and knock out UTG AI player. I don't know if raising AI to try and knock out the BB is necessary given the risk of busting. Just calling keeps you from running into a monster if MP1 has it, and if he has something that he would have folded to a shove that gets there, and knocks out UTG, you still might gain +$EV if UTG busts?
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