March 18, 2013
Hello all! New member and very excited to have this forum. Haven't had time to check everything out but familiar with the podcast and looking forward to seeing the rest. Here is my first hand to post:
Final table. Top 7 paid. 7th = $650ish while 1st = about $6000. I'd played 62 hands with the flatter (MP1) and his stats were 19/10/0. He had shown up with T8 defending blinds. Shover was 18/11/3 after 88 hands. BB was 51/47/20 after 50 hands. Others pretty standard.
What is your play? Shove or fold?
Trying to import hand until my action and will post result later:
$200 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 100 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
MP1: 42,474 (42.5 bb)
MP2: 20,438 (20.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): 21,958 (22 bb)
CO: 79,825 (79.8 bb)
BTN: 6,618 (6.6 bb)
SB: 118,945 (118.9 bb)
BB: 101,695 (101.7 bb)
UTG+1: 12,719 (12.7 bb)
UTG+2: 7,828 (7.8 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J J
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 7,728 and is all-in, MP1 calls 7,728, MP2 folds
May 30, 2012
March 18, 2013
More info on the flatter. He had already min raised once from EP at FT and then shoved 37 BBs into a 5 BB pot on 886 rbow flop. He had also raised UTG (a 3x raise) and took down the antes and blinds. We were on our second orbit.
I'm searching through a few hands I played in an earlier tournament against him to see if there is anything more relevant.
March 18, 2013
I agree with posters so far and would normally not think twice about shipping this but are there ICM considerations that would dictate a fold? 9 left and 7 pay with a short stack all in (and called) and stacks of 7 bb and 13 bb still at the table. $0 for 8th. $600+ for 7th.
May 30, 2012
Just like Muckedup said……… for my .02 cents. It's a NO BRAINER stuffy baker this in their face. If he wakes up with AA, KK………….. OH WELL………… With 20bb's I'm never folding JJ unless it was raise, reraise, rereraise, LOL and then I'm still going to think about shipping it.
May 30, 2012
I can't see how you fold JJ here. Where are you playing this tourney? I hear what you are saying about 8/9 get $0, but I'm shoving this all day every day unless it's the Main Event Final tbl…………. Ivey folded JJ to Shulman. Maybe I'm wrong, lol. I am still an amateur ……….
May 30, 2012
May 30, 2012
I understand ICM and you are on the bubble, but if he's been an active playing with a wide range, he could be doing this with 66/88 or AK/AQ/AJ…… Unless this is Allen Kessler/Dan Harrington or someone other tight player that I know is tight I'm shipping it.
Cause if he's truely a very capable player he could show something like 88 or AJ.
Just my thoughts……….
What are you doing there with QQ? It's the same………….
March 18, 2013
Definitely not arguing your point. Just interested to hear the other side because I think you could make a very strong ICM argument to fold but ultimately, I think you are right. I expect to be dominated very little of the time. The folks on the other forum seem to think a higher likelihood of being crushed by QQ-AA which I think is interesting. I'd never flat in that spot if I were him.
March 18, 2013
Do you think I have any fold equity or do you think I just dominate his range to such an extent that a shove is +EV? If I have fold equity, then the ICM considerations are much less. If he's going to call every time, then variance increases and I have to consider ICM more.
May 30, 2012
no arguing, we're are in these forums to TALK about opinions and situations. I know there are some A-holes in 2+2 that believe that are the greatest and believe their opinions are the correct ones…………
If I thinks he's a moh-moh………… or someone who's all over the place. I'm jamming all day. If he's a GOOD/competent thinking player, I think I jam 50% and fold 50%, it is ALL dependant on the game flow and how you think of your opponent.
Most of it is your read on how he is playing and what's happened the last few hands and maybe his g/f just texted him and said you are NOT getting ANY “STUFF” when you get home. Maybe he's mad now, lol.
July 3, 2010
The ICM tool I just ran said to go with QQ+ which I sort of expected would be the results for overcalling/shipping ranges.
ICM makes ranges way tighter than people think. If we can't remove better pairs, and we can't do this despite the fact that he sounds like a fish, I think it's a super tough in-game fold but a correct one to make.
With the shover having a decent chance of a busting and a 6.5 bb stack left at the table for the remaining bust before we're in the money, I think you have to fold JJ.
I just don't see many people folding JJ here.
January 15, 2013
I used to find that the flat to the ss all in at this stage to scream monster but more and more I am finding that, especially with non regs, that this is a individual who has a decent hand, doesn't know what to do with, and chooses the worst option. Thus, with all the factors cited I am shoving as many have indicated.
March 18, 2013
To me, the most interesting and overlooked aspect of this hand is the disparity of stack size particularly the huge stacks in the sb/bb and how/if their ability to play deepstack poker changes the flatters range at all. I know their presence would eliminate flatting premiums from my game but maybe that’s a leak of mine b/c a lot of people say they’d flat kk-AA all day in that spot. I look to avoid giving more than one monster stack the option to flat behind and gobble up short stacks. They can put me in a weird spot post flop. Eliminate the ICM/bubble worries and I think the EP % of flatting monsters goes way up. So if ICM is enough to make us fold JJ when there has been little to no aggression shown with 22 bb then isn’t it enough to make him want to reduce variance even subconsciously (even if he’s not a thinking player). If so, and we can reduce his range to almost exclusively pairs and giving a discount to bigger pairs, does that change the ICM math enough to make it a shove given the read I’ve described?
Leaning toward a fold here, even if we know the flatter is clueless.
FkCoolers said:
The ICM tool I just ran said to go with QQ+ which I sort of expected would be the results for overcalling/shipping ranges.
ICM makes ranges way tighter than people think. If we can't remove better pairs, and we can't do this despite the fact that he sounds like a fish, I think it's a super tough in-game fold but a correct one to make.
With the shover having a decent chance of a busting and a 6.5 bb stack left at the table for the remaining bust before we're in the money, I think you have to fold JJ.
I just don't see many people folding JJ here.
I think I agree with Coolers.
March 18, 2013
That's the question I kept asking! I've been ripped on pretty good for discounting premiums in this situation, mostly on 2+2. I attribute the discount mostly to chip stack disparity and the monster stacks sitting in the blinds but also other potential flatters. I don't want to play this hand 4 handed (including shover) OOP even with a monster given huge ICM. I'd look to reduce variance every time. You? Heard a podcast that made me think you might. I'm not saying I take premiums out of his range entirely, but a bit of a discount goes a long way in this spot. No?
To answer the question, I gave his range almost all pairs, about 77-TT, AKo, AKs and discount to QQ-AA. That's about it. I'm not saying I was right though. Crap, I still think ICM is right and its a fold after typing that. lol I don't want to flip against AK and he's not folding any of those hands so fold equity is nil and ICM should overcome my little discount to premiums. Add some smaller pairs to his range though and…
Id like to make it clear I didnt look at any of the other responses. So this response is just based on my thoughts only and no other influence. With 0 information on the people at the table I think I probrably just stuffy baker right in this flatters face. I just think he is flatting stuff like 7s 8s 9s 10s etc maybe even kq. However although some people wont like this response this decision for the most part should be made mostly on game flow. If the guy is doing fishy stuff being agg playing weird etc etc. Its a tough spot and real close imo. But I think its a stuff just because in general people playing on lock are not great at tournament poker.
Bigdog
Looks like a pretty clear shove to me. And i completely agree with Casey. He can flat and fold to reships with a ton of hands you have crushed. If we are really worried about him flatting the top (AA/KK/QQ) in this particular spot when we have JJ I think thats super nitty and we have to go for the win. A cooler is a cooler in most cases.
March 18, 2013
Okay, now I'm totally mindf'd again. Thought I had it settled in my head that this was a tempting shove but a mathematical fold. Now I've got elite type pros (thanks to BigDog, DN, etc) saying that it's an easy shove. At points, I've felt silly for even posting this hand on other forums because it was a “trivial” fold. Great approach from Marc too. Look forward to hearing what people think. I'd love to hear somebody firmly in the fold camp hash it out with Casey/Danny. Thanks again.
March 18, 2013
Thanks for the post! Clearly, most of my stats on the flatter were from an earlier tournament with totally different dynamics at a much earlier stage in the tournament. Ok, here's the FT hand history from the perspective of the flatter:
1. UTG+1 = minraise, got called from BB. Flop 886 rbow. open shove 37k into 5k. take it down. (not good, not good at all)
2. UTG = raise 3x. take it down
3. BB = fold to minraise from mp + 1
4. SB = fold to UTG +1 raiser
5. Button = fold to aggro big stack guy raising from MP (a 3 betn from the blinds took this down)
6. CO = ditto (now aggro guy is UTG+2, still raising)
7. HJ = fold to UTG minraise
8. MP = fold to aggro guy who is still raisin, this time from UTG
…which brings us to our subject hand. Happy to provide any other info.
May 30, 2012
July 3, 2010
DannyN13 said:
Looks like a pretty clear shove to me. And i completely agree with Casey. He can flat and fold to reships with a ton of hands you have crushed. If we are really worried about him flatting the top (AA/KK/QQ) in this particular spot when we have JJ I think thats super nitty and we have to go for the win. A cooler is a cooler in most cases.
I don't agree because it seems like ICM suicide and a huge mistake to bust here with a 6 BB stack left at the table when a min cash is 3x the buy in and we have very good odds of laddering at least once.
It isn't ICM suicide when we are sitting on 22 bbs and are almost just as short as all other short stacks. Players on these sites are usually not that competent to flat the top here. I don't play to min cash regardless and this seems like a great spot for us to crush his flatting range and possibly even get folds out of him where we destroy the 7 bb players shoving range. We double here and worry more about ICM afterward when we are in the position to get top 3. Do you fold JJ on the cash bubble of an MTT paying more than FT? (I know 7 only here) in this spot? I certainly don't. Yes there is a difference of course but I am just throwing it out there for conversation sake. I am not a huge math poker player I have said that numerous times, but in this particular tournament with given scenario not a chance I fold JJ. Just my opinion obviously.
March 18, 2013
Great posts and exactly what I was looking for when I joined TPE. As Danny mentioned above, I never play to mincash and this played heavily into my decision. However, there really isn't a mincash in this situation with 7th place being 3x buyin due to overlay which is sort of what creates this crazy dynamic. 22bbs is clearly enough to fold our way to 6th/7th but I had my eyes on doubling and have a great shot at top 3. In retrospect, I think I should have given more consideration to the payout structure. I might hate ICM because it feels like I'm blinding away sometimes in spots I should be aggressive but if the end result is that I make more money over time, can it be wrong? Isn't that what poker and dealing with variance is all about?
May 30, 2012
have to say as soon as i saw the post i thought it's a shove
I dont agree with a post above that high stakes players regs ALWAYS have the top of their range here.. i see heaps of weak/weakish MP flat ranges from players in higher buy ins
any half decent player would flat middle pairs, AJs KQs here to give themselves a chance at increasing their stack but risking the least amount of chips given that there are more than a few players to go through
also agree with duggs about ICM esp the fact that it doesnt take into account future pressure we can apply, future 3bet FE, steal and resteal spots etc etc etc
Yeah he may be flatting AA here but in game i just cant see myself folding JJ here
Call, win and climb that ladder
June 26, 2012
OK. Seems a little tight to fold JJ here. I can understand not wanting to get it in bad but the calculator said QQplus. Just a question as it seems to befuddle me here. If we fold JJ here would we call with QQ. Seems to be the same as JJ here.
What about 1010 or 99. Seems like a extremly tight fold. I am not good enough(especially on Lock) to fold JJ here. It may be spazz city but I ship it.
Wonder what the fold percentage of the flatter is here. Cause stuffing and he folds with a win equals an 38314 stack for
38 BBs. Does a fold factor here in the thinking? Does anyone think since he flats once he flats twice?
Very interesting.
Its been a month. Update on the hand?
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