View Plans & Pricing

If you are signed in and are seeing this message, please be sure you have selected a user name in My Profile. The forum requires it.
A A A
Search

— Forum Scope —




— Match —





— Forum Options —





Minimum search word length is 3 characters - maximum search word length is 84 characters

Topic Rating: 1 Topic Rating: 1 Topic Rating: 1 Topic Rating: 1 Topic Rating: 1 Topic Rating: 1 (4 votes) 
sp_TopicIcon
Final Table
Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
1
March 18, 2013 - 11:03 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Hello all!  New member and very excited to have this forum.  Haven't had time to check everything out but familiar with the podcast and looking forward to seeing the rest. Here is my first hand to post:

Final table. Top 7 paid. 7th = $650ish while 1st = about $6000. I'd played 62 hands with the flatter (MP1) and his stats were 19/10/0. He had shown up with T8 defending blinds. Shover was 18/11/3 after 88 hands. BB was 51/47/20 after 50 hands. Others pretty standard. 

What is your play? Shove or fold?

Trying to import hand until my action and will post result later:

$200 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 100 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players

MP1: 42,474 (42.5 bb)
MP2: 20,438 (20.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): 21,958 (22 bb)
CO: 79,825 (79.8 bb)
BTN: 6,618 (6.6 bb)
SB: 118,945 (118.9 bb)
BB: 101,695 (101.7 bb)
UTG+1: 12,719 (12.7 bb)
UTG+2: 7,828 (7.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J J
UTG+1 foldsUTG+2 raises to 7,728 and is all-in, MP1 calls 7,728, MP2 folds

duggs
nz
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 591
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
2
March 18, 2013 - 11:49 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
1

i probably ship it and expect mp to fold the vast majority of the time and have us crushed virtually never

P-aire 146
Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done
Members
Forum Posts: 832
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
3
March 19, 2013 - 12:18 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Shit it all day every day…….

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
4
March 19, 2013 - 11:47 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

More info on the flatter. He had already min raised once from EP at FT and then shoved 37 BBs into a 5 BB pot on 886 rbow flop. He had also raised UTG (a 3x raise) and took down the antes and blinds.  We were on our second orbit.

I'm searching through a few hands I played in an earlier tournament against him to see if there is anything more relevant.

MuckedUp
Flounder
Members
Forum Posts: 6
Member Since:
January 15, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
5
March 19, 2013 - 12:04 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

We have 22BB – I pile it in here for sure. just my $.02

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
6
March 19, 2013 - 12:46 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

I agree with posters so far and would normally not think twice about shipping this but are there ICM considerations that would dictate a fold?  9 left and 7 pay with a short stack all in (and called) and stacks of 7 bb and 13 bb still at the table.  $0 for 8th. $600+ for 7th.

JoeDiego
Guppy
Members
Forum Posts: 1
Member Since:
March 17, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
7
March 19, 2013 - 1:42 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

It’s a ship. Also ICM problems are eased for you because the short stack is all in on this hand rather than sitting out and freerolling a pay jump and you and the original flatter have his range crushed.

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
8
March 19, 2013 - 2:25 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Not sure how the short stack all in eases ICM here.  He's finishing 9th.  8th = $0 and I'm covered by flatter so a shove and call by better still an ICM disaster.

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
9
March 19, 2013 - 3:07 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

I wanted to mention also that this hand has generated pretty good discussion on 2+2 with a lot of folks posting (but not voting) that it's an easy fold.  Thanks again for any and all discussion.

P-aire 146
Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done
Members
Forum Posts: 832
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
10
March 19, 2013 - 5:46 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Just like Muckedup said……… for my .02 cents.  It's a NO BRAINER stuffy baker this in their face.  If he wakes up with AA, KK………….. OH WELL…………  With 20bb's  I'm never folding JJ unless it was raise, reraise, rereraise, LOL and then I'm still going to think about shipping it.

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
11
March 19, 2013 - 7:24 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

here are the payouts:

1st – $5250
2nd – $3375
3rd – $2250
4th – $1500
5th – $1125
6th – $825
7th – $675

8th – $0

9th – $0

P-aire 146
Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done
Members
Forum Posts: 832
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
12
March 19, 2013 - 7:37 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

I can't see how you fold JJ here.  Where are you playing this tourney?  I hear what you are saying about 8/9 get $0, but I'm shoving this all day every day unless it's the Main Event Final tbl………….  Ivey folded JJ to Shulman.  Maybe I'm wrong, lol.  I am still an amateur ……….

P-aire 146
Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done
Members
Forum Posts: 832
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
13
March 19, 2013 - 7:37 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Where in 2+2 do you have this hand posted?  Interested to see what those wackos say?  🙂

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
14
March 19, 2013 - 7:39 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0
Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
15
March 19, 2013 - 7:42 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Sorry should have mentioned that it's an online “high stakes” tournament but with a big overlay. One of the 6 pm tourneys at Lock.

P-aire 146
Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done
Members
Forum Posts: 832
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
16
March 19, 2013 - 7:55 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

I understand ICM and you are on the bubble, but if he's been an active playing with a wide range, he could be doing this with 66/88 or AK/AQ/AJ……  Unless this is Allen Kessler/Dan Harrington or someone other tight player that I know is tight I'm shipping it. 

Cause if he's truely a very capable player he could show something like 88 or AJ. 

Just my thoughts……….

 

What are you doing there with QQ?  It's the same………….

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
17
March 19, 2013 - 7:58 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Definitely not arguing your point.  Just interested to hear the other side because I think you could make a very strong ICM argument to fold but ultimately, I think you are right.  I expect to be dominated very little of the time.  The folks on the other forum seem to think a higher likelihood of being crushed by QQ-AA which I think is interesting.  I'd never flat in that spot if I were him.

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
18
March 19, 2013 - 8:02 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Do you think I have any fold equity or do you think I just dominate his range to such an extent that a shove is +EV?  If I have fold equity, then the ICM considerations are much less.  If he's going to call every time, then variance increases and I have to consider ICM more.

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
19
March 19, 2013 - 8:03 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Sorry, one more point.  I don't think he's a capable player.  See post 4 regarding earlier action.

P-aire 146
Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done
Members
Forum Posts: 832
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
20
March 19, 2013 - 8:19 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

no arguing, we're are in these forums to TALK about opinions and situations.  I know there are some A-holes in 2+2 that believe that are the greatest and believe their opinions are the correct ones…………

If I thinks he's a moh-moh…………  or someone who's all over the place.  I'm jamming all day.  If he's a GOOD/competent thinking player, I think I jam 50% and fold 50%, it is ALL dependant on the game flow and how you think of your opponent. 

Most of it is your read on how he is playing and what's happened the last few hands and maybe his g/f just texted him and said you are NOT getting ANY “STUFF” when you get home.  Maybe he's mad now, lol. 

FkCoolers
Cambridge, Ma (Central Square)
Member Moderator
Forum Posts: 1610
Member Since:
July 3, 2010
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
21
March 19, 2013 - 8:47 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

The ICM tool I just ran said to go with QQ+ which I sort of expected would be the results for overcalling/shipping ranges. 

ICM makes ranges way tighter than people think. If we can't remove better pairs, and we can't do this despite the fact that he sounds like a fish, I think it's a super tough in-game fold but a correct one to make. 

With the shover having a decent chance of a busting and a 6.5 bb stack left at the table for the remaining bust before we're in the money, I think you have to fold JJ. 

I just don't see many people folding JJ here.

duggs
nz
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 591
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
22
March 19, 2013 - 9:04 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

i think ICM arguments are made extremely weaker by the relative stacks of the other players. especially since we have 20bb if we have 35-40bb icm becomes a much more important factor

mikewebb68
Sunday Major
Members
Forum Posts: 298
Member Since:
January 15, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
23
March 19, 2013 - 9:27 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

I used to find that the flat to the ss all in at this stage to scream monster but more and more I am finding that, especially with non regs, that this is a individual who has a decent hand, doesn't know what to do with, and chooses the worst option. Thus, with all the factors cited I am shoving as many have indicated.

florianm1
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 588
Member Since:
June 11, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
24
March 20, 2013 - 6:23 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

its an easy fold all day. MP has KK, AA there almost always in a HSMTT

 

and even if we look at uncle nashovsky it would be a fold if they both played optimal:

 R     7.7k     UTG+1    16.1%, 33+ A2s+ ATo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs
     3B     42k     MP1    3.7%, TT+ AQs+ AKo
        
        C    22k     MP3    0.9%, KK+       

 

with taking ICM into consideration

 

cheers

Elatis
Guppy
Members
Forum Posts: 1
Member Since:
December 10, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
25
March 20, 2013 - 8:08 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

With stats of 19/10/0 he’s likely flatting and not 3 betting a large part of his range. As such I wouldn’t be too concerned with an overpair here and would shove.

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
26
March 20, 2013 - 11:58 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

To me, the most interesting and overlooked aspect of this hand is the disparity of stack size particularly the huge stacks in the sb/bb and how/if their ability to play deepstack poker changes the flatters range at all. I know their presence would eliminate flatting premiums from my game but maybe that’s a leak of mine b/c a lot of people say they’d flat kk-AA all day in that spot. I look to avoid giving more than one monster stack the option to flat behind and gobble up short stacks. They can put me in a weird spot post flop. Eliminate the ICM/bubble worries and I think the EP % of flatting monsters goes way up. So if ICM is enough to make us fold JJ when there has been little to no aggression shown with 22 bb then isn’t it enough to make him want to reduce variance even subconsciously (even if he’s not a thinking player). If so, and we can reduce his range to almost exclusively pairs and giving a discount to bigger pairs, does that change the ICM math enough to make it a shove given the read I’ve described?

florianm1
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 588
Member Since:
June 11, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
27
March 20, 2013 - 12:39 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

i dont see the point why you want to discourage big stacks from playing with you. more then not if such a shorty is all in and gets flatted by a mid stack, the big stacks also tend to come over the top and you get the desired results.

and playing IP vs big stacks should also not be much of a concern.

 

additionally flatting gives other small stacks the opporunity to feel prized in with hands such as 98s,JTs, pairs and so on.

 

i very well believe that not having the AA,KK flat in your range here is a leak especially with such a mainac as the BB is

cheers

rivermen123

TPE Pro
Members
Forum Posts: 339
Member Since:
June 14, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
28
March 20, 2013 - 2:38 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Leaning toward a fold here, even if we know the flatter is clueless.

 

FkCoolers said:

The ICM tool I just ran said to go with QQ+ which I sort of expected would be the results for overcalling/shipping ranges. 

ICM makes ranges way tighter than people think. If we can't remove better pairs, and we can't do this despite the fact that he sounds like a fish, I think it's a super tough in-game fold but a correct one to make. 

With the shover having a decent chance of a busting and a 6.5 bb stack left at the table for the remaining bust before we're in the money, I think you have to fold JJ. 

I just don't see many people folding JJ here.

I think I agree with Coolers.

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
29
March 20, 2013 - 3:09 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Over 50 posts at 2+2. Prefer conversation here but I think that thread is worth reading if you want to spend the time. I’m sure nobody is as interested as me though so just throwing it out there for you bored sickos out there. Thanks again.

marc alioto
Guest
Guests
30
March 20, 2013 - 10:41 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

before i answer, im curious to know everyone's flatting range here if we were MP1?????

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
31
March 20, 2013 - 10:42 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

That's the question I kept asking!  I've been ripped on pretty good for discounting premiums in this situation, mostly on 2+2.  I attribute the discount mostly to chip stack disparity and the monster stacks sitting in the blinds but also other potential flatters.  I don't want to play this hand 4 handed (including shover) OOP even with a monster given huge ICM.  I'd look to reduce variance every time.  You?  Heard a podcast that made me think you might.  I'm not saying I take premiums out of his range entirely, but a bit of a discount goes a long way in this spot.  No? 

To answer the question, I gave his range almost all pairs, about 77-TT, AKo, AKs and discount to QQ-AA.  That's about it.  I'm not saying I was right though.  Crap, I still think ICM is right and its a fold after typing that.  lol  I don't want to flip against AK and he's not folding any of those hands so fold equity is nil and ICM should overcome my little discount to premiums.  Add some smaller pairs to his range though and…

marc alioto
Guest
Guests
32
March 20, 2013 - 11:16 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

will revisit in a couple days, but ill ask the community again

 

What hands are we flatting from MP1?

what hands are we raising from MP1?

are we re-shoving any hands from MP1?

 

Once we get 5-6 responses, we can determine what the best play is with jj in your spot

bigdogpckt5s

TPE Management
Members
Forum Posts: 363
Member Since:
August 7, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
33
March 20, 2013 - 11:35 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
1

Id like to make it clear I didnt look at any of the other responses. So this response is just based on my thoughts only and no other influence. With 0 information on the people at the table I think I probrably just stuffy baker right in this flatters face. I just think he is flatting stuff like 7s 8s 9s 10s etc maybe even kq. However although some people wont like this response this decision for the most part should be made mostly on game flow. If the guy is doing fishy stuff being agg playing weird etc etc. Its a tough spot and real close imo. But I think its a stuff just because in general people playing on lock are not great at tournament poker. 

 

Bigdog

DannyN13

TPE Pro
Members
Forum Posts: 305
Member Since:
August 3, 2011
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
34
March 21, 2013 - 3:47 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Looks like a pretty clear shove to me. And i completely agree with Casey. He can flat and fold to reships with a ton of hands you have crushed. If we are really worried about him flatting the top (AA/KK/QQ) in this particular spot when we have JJ I think thats super nitty and we have to go for the win. A cooler is a cooler in most cases.

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
35
March 21, 2013 - 10:06 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

Okay, now I'm totally mindf'd again. Thought I had it settled in my head that this was a tempting shove but a mathematical fold.  Now I've got elite type pros (thanks to BigDog, DN, etc) saying that it's an easy shove.  At points, I've felt silly for even posting this hand on other forums because it was a “trivial” fold.  Great approach from Marc too.  Look forward to hearing what people think.  I'd love to hear somebody firmly in the fold camp hash it out with Casey/Danny.  Thanks again.

LordScanner
Playing Freerolls
Members
Forum Posts: 18
Member Since:
July 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
36
March 21, 2013 - 4:55 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

Clarke206 said:

More info on the flatter. He had already min raised once from EP at FT and then shoved 37 BBs into a 5 BB pot on 886 rbow flop. He had also raised UTG (a 3x raise) and took down the antes and blinds.  We were on our second orbit.

.
It's hard to think about any decent player that would take a line such as min raising pre then jamming the flop. Any 3bets pre on this hand, was it a multiway pot, did the BB or SB call? Maybe it's stretching a bit but I think that analyzing these hands could help in guessing the likelihood MP would flat a monster here. Sounds like he min raised a big pair and then shoved over a paired board which is awful but common among bad players.
19/10/0 does indicate a resonable flatting range.
.
I wouldn't take AA/KK out of his range, although I think he could be flatting a lot of smaller pairs as well.
.
The problem is the decision here is so much player/gameflow dependent IMO. Although I play mostly live, one of the first think I take notice is how a player bets strong hands as opposed to weak. Just because it's hard to have a good grasp of his range given the slow pace of live playing, but tendencies such as how they approach a strong/weak is fairly consistent.
Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
37
March 21, 2013 - 9:13 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Thanks for the post!  Clearly, most of my stats on the flatter were from an earlier tournament with totally different dynamics at a much earlier stage in the tournament. Ok, here's the FT hand history from the perspective of the flatter:

 

1. UTG+1 = minraise, got called from BB. Flop 886 rbow.  open shove 37k into 5k.  take it down.  (not good, not good at all)

2. UTG = raise 3x. take it down

3. BB = fold to minraise from mp + 1

4. SB = fold to UTG +1 raiser

5. Button = fold to aggro big stack guy raising from MP (a 3 betn from the blinds took this down)

6. CO = ditto (now aggro guy is UTG+2, still raising)

7. HJ = fold to UTG minraise

8. MP = fold to aggro guy who is still raisin, this time from UTG

…which brings us to our subject hand.  Happy to provide any other info. 

P-aire 146
Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done
Members
Forum Posts: 832
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
38
March 21, 2013 - 10:38 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

I normally don't ask……………….  but now I want results.  People can still give there opinions…………   I need to know, lol

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
39
March 21, 2013 - 10:52 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

I'll give them via PM (just sent you one) or chat room.

FkCoolers
Cambridge, Ma (Central Square)
Member Moderator
Forum Posts: 1610
Member Since:
July 3, 2010
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
40
March 21, 2013 - 11:33 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

DannyN13 said:

Looks like a pretty clear shove to me. And i completely agree with Casey. He can flat and fold to reships with a ton of hands you have crushed. If we are really worried about him flatting the top (AA/KK/QQ) in this particular spot when we have JJ I think thats super nitty and we have to go for the win. A cooler is a cooler in most cases.

 I don't agree because it seems like ICM suicide and a huge mistake to bust here with a 6 BB stack left at the table when a min cash is 3x the buy in and we have very good odds of laddering at least once.

DannyN13

TPE Pro
Members
Forum Posts: 305
Member Since:
August 3, 2011
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
41
March 22, 2013 - 1:25 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

It isn't ICM suicide when we are sitting on 22 bbs and are almost just as short as all other short stacks. Players on these sites are usually not that competent to flat the top here. I don't play to min cash regardless and this seems like a great spot for us to crush his flatting range and possibly even get folds out of him where we destroy the 7 bb players shoving range. We double here and worry more about ICM afterward when we are in the position to get top 3. Do you fold JJ on the cash bubble of an MTT paying more than FT? (I know 7 only here) in this spot? I certainly don't. Yes there is a difference of course but I am just throwing it out there for conversation sake. I am not a huge math poker player I have said that numerous times, but in this particular tournament with given scenario not a chance I fold JJ. Just my opinion obviously.

DannyN13

TPE Pro
Members
Forum Posts: 305
Member Since:
August 3, 2011
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
42
March 22, 2013 - 1:27 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

*All except the 6 bb stack obv. But prize jump is not significant at all when he busts.

duggs
nz
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 591
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
43
March 22, 2013 - 3:49 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
1

dammit i wrote a huge post and it crashed on me. ill try again

 

I shove here, ICM doesnt perfectly account for expected monetary gains as it assumes that the only contributing factor to our likely finishing places is our chip stack. it doesnt account for the increased expectation we can derive from having a deeper stack which allows us to raise/fold, 3bet/fold raise/call off the 6bb shorty, play postflop hands without the hand cuff of doing serious damage to our stack.

as an example if everyone stack at the table including ours halved. our ICM calculation would not change. however, in actual game our ability to realise our edge with an 11bb stack would decrease greatly, also this is the same argument used to say that turbos have a lower cap on ROI than deepstack tournaments due to the greater edge we can exert at deeper stacks and how opponents mistakes compund at deeper stack depths. 

another consideration i think needs to be addressed is how tough the table is (comparative to our own ability), normal consensus is that we should be more willing to take marginal/slightly -EV spots in tough tables since we are expected to have a negative expectation at this table. given this i think ICM will then overestimate our expected gains at a tough table meaning our gii ranges should be tighter here than ICM says as they are correctly estimating the downside of the equation but overestimating the upside.

however on a soft table where we expect that having a 50-60bb stack gives us a greater than neutral expectation on this table I think our gii range should widen since ICM is likely underestimating our upside.

Coolers ran an ICM calc for this and came out with QQ+, given the above factors (assuming we have a decent edge on this table and that our ability to exert that edge is (at least) linearly related to our stack depth (if not exponentially) ) i think our range can justifiably be widened to at least JJ/AK in this spot. 

 

on the wider discussion of ICM implications i feel it is definitely an incomplete system so far as it doesnt really account for table positions/nits/super fish/strong regs etc.

duggs
nz
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 591
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
44
March 22, 2013 - 3:57 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

marc thats tough because its hard to know how the rest of the table plays and how wide the big ones are isolating. its hard to see a call/fold range v anyone but CO/SB/BB from his stack so i imagine 99/1010/AQ/AJs call/fold and KK/AA are his call/call range. but its hard to know whether this is a table he is likely to induce with on or not and given BB stats id imagine that he would isolate (either a min or a shove with QQ+) and call/call everyone but the giants (including us) with a range like 99/1010/AQ/AK and would reship AK JJ+ more often than he is trapping with it.

Clarke206
Grinding Micros
Forum Posts: 51
Member Since:
March 18, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
45
March 22, 2013 - 9:54 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

Great posts and exactly what I was looking for when I joined TPE.  As Danny mentioned above, I never play to mincash and this played heavily into my decision.  However, there really isn't a mincash in this situation with 7th place being 3x buyin due to overlay which is sort of what creates this crazy dynamic. 22bbs is clearly enough to fold our way to 6th/7th but I had my eyes on doubling and have a great shot at top 3.  In retrospect, I think I should have given more consideration to the payout structure.  I might hate ICM because it feels like I'm blinding away sometimes in spots I should be aggressive but if the end result is that I make more money over time, can it be wrong?  Isn't that what poker and dealing with variance is all about? 

LordScanner
Playing Freerolls
Members
Forum Posts: 18
Member Since:
July 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
46
March 22, 2013 - 10:56 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Clarke206 said:

1. UTG+1 = minraise, got called from BB. Flop 886 rbow.  open shove 37k into 5k.  take it down.  (not good, not good at all)

2. UTG = raise 3x. take it down

 

Hard to extrapolate without a sample size, but it sounds like the villain might raise big with weaker holdings. I mean it sounds he was strong in hand 1 (and obv did a awful play on the flop as he'd only getting called by a random 8 basically). And then he 3x from UTG next hand, which sounds like possibly a weak pair or weak Ace.

 

But in your case, I got the feeling villain could flat monsters quite often here, but given his stack size he could also flat a lot of other hands as he could fold to a shove from the bigger stacks (CO and blinds).

 

It's tempting to shove JJs in this spot. Not sure if it's because I've just came back from a tourney in which I've spent 2 days navigating with a 20BB stack, and you see all these spots that you can't take because of stack size. I mean, considering MP+1 folds and you take it down, the difference between a 20 and 40BB stack is so huge here.

 

So my gut feeling is that he has a huge hand here, and as in almost every discussion that generate a lot of discussion it's a close call. Still, in game I think I'd ship it here. 

fredhand19
Grinding Micros
Members
Forum Posts: 48
Member Since:
June 22, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
47
March 22, 2013 - 11:41 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

DannyN13 said:

*All except the 6 bb stack obv. But prize jump is not significant at all when he busts.

72oo>AK, K5ss>AQss…call with JJ and run like Danny does in home games FTW…j/k lol

hapetimes
Home Game Champ
Forum Posts: 34
Member Since:
May 30, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
48
March 26, 2013 - 8:34 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

have to say as soon as i saw the post i thought it's a shove

I dont agree with a post above that high stakes players regs ALWAYS have the top of their range here.. i see heaps of weak/weakish MP flat ranges from players in higher buy ins

any half decent player would flat middle pairs, AJs KQs here to give themselves a chance at increasing their stack but risking the least amount of chips given that there are more than a few players to go through

also agree with duggs about ICM esp the fact that it doesnt take into account future pressure we can apply, future 3bet FE, steal and resteal spots etc etc etc

 

Yeah he may be flatting AA here but in game i just cant see myself folding JJ here

Call, win and climb that ladder

wyldeyed
Lighting Money On Fire
Members
Forum Posts: 24
Member Since:
June 26, 2012
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
49
April 16, 2013 - 9:52 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print sp_EditHistory
0

OK. Seems a little tight to fold JJ here. I can understand not wanting to get it in bad but the calculator said QQplus. Just a question as it seems to befuddle me here. If we fold JJ here would we call with QQ. Seems to be the same as JJ here.

What about 1010 or 99. Seems like a extremly tight fold. I am not good enough(especially on Lock) to fold JJ here. It may be spazz city but I ship it.

 

Wonder what the fold percentage of the flatter is here. Cause stuffing and he folds with a win equals an 38314 stack for

38 BBs. Does a fold factor here in the thinking? Does anyone think since he flats once he flats twice?

 

Very interesting.

 

Its been a month. Update on the hand?

MotherFuggle
Playing Freerolls
Members
Forum Posts: 14
Member Since:
March 13, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
50
April 16, 2013 - 8:49 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Just saw this hand for the first time.

 

Don't know if I'm trying to think too outside the box, but I was wondering if just flatting the raise was all that bad?

 

You still have 15bbs (if you eventually have to fold), and MP1 can't bluff you, and will probably just check it down to try and knock out UTG AI player.  I don't know if raising AI to try and knock out the BB is necessary given the risk of busting.  Just calling keeps you from running into a monster if MP1 has it, and if he has something that he would have folded to a shove that gets there, and knocks out UTG, you still might gain +$EV if UTG busts?

Forum Timezone: America/New_York

Most Users Ever Online: 2780

Currently Online:
90 Guest(s)

Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)

Top Posters:

bennymacca: 2616

Foucault: 2067

folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133

praetor: 1033

theginger45: 924

P-aire 146: 832

Turbulence: 768

The Riceman: 731

duggs: 591

florianm1: 588

Newest Members:

adrianvaida2525

Anteeater

Laggro

Philbro

acekingsuited

Lber16

Forum Stats:

Groups: 4

Forums: 24

Topics: 12705

Posts: 75003

 

Member Stats:

Guest Posters: 1063

Members: 12005

Moderators: 2

Admins: 5

Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos

Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1