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February 8, 2017
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$550 ($100k GTD) at local casino. Runs 4 times a year and draws a lot of good players but very soft field overall. ~280 entries, 36 players paid, $34k to first.
Blinds 3000/6000 ante 1000, 14 players remain. Chipstacks are all approximate but close. Bigstack has 320k (53bb), I have 250k (42bb).
Next biggest stack at table is 170k (28bb). Rest of table has 20bb or less. Two biggest stacks at other table had ~30bb at break, and we’ve played less than 10 hands since.
Bigstack is a strong weekend warrior type, probably a favorite in the field but mostly just a straightforward tight player who understands tournament dynamics. Bigstack and hero have been avoiding each other and picking on the smaller stacks.
Bigstack raises to 14k from the lojack, 2 folds, Hero 3b to 40k with AKo on the button, blinds fold, lojack tanks and 4b to 95k. Hero?
This felt like a surprisingly easy fold. I wasn’t seeing what I had identified as a reliable weak tell from this player, but even without the read I think its probably a fold vs. player type when we consider stack sizes and that the rest of the table was playing very tight. Bigstack proudly showed KK after the hand, but I wasn’t going to lose any sleep over this hand if he hadn’t.
It occurred to me after the tournament that I would NEVER have folded this hand online regardless of chip/table dynamics, unless I had a huge sample and villain was a horrible nit.
Why is it so different? I can think of lots of reasons, but nothing concrete. Are better players finding places to make folds like this online?
TPE Pro
May 30, 2017
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Interesting hand. If he understands tourney dynamics well, he should be opening wide in this spot as CL with 14 left, as well as looking to put some pressure on you even if he’s not regularly the 4/5-betting type. So I would shove here unless you think he’s just not capable of making this type of play at all. Reading the Spoiler, if the plan is to fold facing 4bet, you might want to consider just flatting in position with the AK.
Nice work on your deep run!
February 8, 2017
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Thanks Collin! Made a couple of mistakes later and finished 6th, but can’t be too disappointed about my first 4-figure live score.
I must admit my plan for the hand was about as detailed as “I haz AK lol, I 3bet.”
In my defense, over 100+ hands his only 4bet was shoving AA vs a committed stack, and he had only 3bet me once. I think I oversold him when I said he understood tourneys well. He seemed to be really good at leveraging stacks with his postflop sizing, and he seemed to be attacking the same players that I felt were folding too much. Otherwise, he was cold-calling 2bets and flatting 3bets way too often. In the moment I felt I could rule out any kind of frustration/ego-based 4bet, as the mood at the table was very amicable considering the stakes, and he didn’t seem the type to want to teach the aggro kid a lesson.
Although he may actually only have KK+ here, I think JJ+/AK is a good range to work with. If we are getting folds from 22/40 combos, and sitting on 30.9% equity when called, shoving is massively profitable. I think it would be criminal to do anything else in most situations, but considering how many chips we have compared to the field, do we want to risk going broke ~31% of the time? (0.45 * 0.69)
I find this to be a gray area that comes up often when I’ve got one of the largest stacks nearing the FT bubble. No matter how much I think about it and run ICM calcs, I can’t draw a line between “You can’t pass up on such a profitable opportunity” and “Why risk a big stack that can find lots of spots to chip up and glide into the final table?” Any advice?
EDIT: I forgot about blockers when counting combos. No time to fix math now but that risk of going broke is probably too high
Busted WCOOP Edit:
If range of JJ+/AK calls with QQ+/AKs, we get called 14/27 or 51.85% of the time and Equity vs range is 33.23%. However, we tie vs range 13.6% of the time, so our risk of ruin in previous calcs may have been pretty exaggerated.
Risk of busting is: 0.5185 * 0.5997 = 31.09% 
If called by QQ+: we get called 12/27 or 44.44% of the time and Equity vs range is 30.86%, with 0.76% ties.
Risk of busting is: 0.4444 * 0.6914 = 30.73%
So my miscalculation basically leaves our risk of ruin the same. I can’t ignore that I’m pigeon-holing villain as tighter than he may actually be in this spot, so range is debatable, but I guess my earlier question is still relevant.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I doubt you can do anything except get it in here. If villain is ever folding at all here then you’re just printing, since you’re getting an amazing price on your fold equity, and even if they’re not they should probably be 4-bet/calling hands like JJ and QQ here some % of the time if they expect you to 3-bet them appropriately.
Don’t think about it in terms of risk of busting. Obviously in any spot where you get it in, you’re going to bust X% of the time. But if the other sides of the equation – the sides that have you either getting a fold, or getting a call and winning – are super profitable, then it can still be a great play.
I think there are a few things to bear in mind here:
1. If you’re planning on folding to a 4-bet, you have to be extremely confident that villain is never, ever 4-bet/folding, and that their range is pretty much exclusively QQ+. This is because you’re folding away so much equity that it needs to be compensated by absolutely printing money when villain flats or folds, which you’re probably not doing as much as you’d think. In this reality, flatting preflop keeps villain’s range wider, which makes it the better play preflop in this unlikely circumstance.
2. I think sizing your 3-bet bigger with your whole range would be good here. If you make your sizing 50k or 55k instead of 40k, all of a sudden villain can no longer 4-bet to a sizing that’s not all-in, regardless of whether they’re bluffing or value-betting. You can comfortably 3-bet/call it off with the top of your range since your value range should be pretty tight here anyway, and you can comfortably fold your bluffs. To be clear, I’m advocating that sizing with your whole 3-betting range, not just with AK.
3. If you’re not sure whether to get it in here or not against a reg-type player, I don’t think it’s reasonable to suggest that your edge in this game might be big enough that you can afford to be making big folds in these spots. You have 42bb and I imagine you probably only have a maximum of something like another 20-25 hands (possibly only a few hands if you’re near the end of the level) before the blinds go to 4k/8k and you have 30bb. A good rule of thumb – if you’re finding yourself frequently wanting to fold these marginal spots about which you’re not confident, the likelihood is that your skill set isn’t developed to the point where you can afford to be folding them. Weaker players should be happy taking thinner spots – only guys who can chip up easily without showdowns can afford to be making huge folds at 40bb stacks.
February 8, 2017
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Thanks man, I really appreciate the feedback. Don’t get me wrong, I can’t remember the last time I folded AK preflop, which is why I wanted to share this hand, but you’re probably right that I’m not a good enough player (yet) to ever pass on such a profitable spot, regardless of any chip/table dynamics.
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