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Facing turn bet + river overbet in $44 6max
michaeldi11on
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September 17, 2015 - 6:56 pm
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…..DDE61819 

Cliff notes – my hands face up, hes a good player, he has discounted value range but I have better hands to call with and don’t have to call everytime as the price is so bad

Interesting hand for discussing how to build check call ranges against top players. I had just played a couple of hands at this table but my reads on the opponent are thats hes played 4k games this year, 193k winnings with 93k profit so i presume he plays a ton of tables and has a good understanding of the game. He probably doesn’t know anything about me. 

What do you think of my line? How thin does he go for value? How often do you think he trys to barrel me off the ten i obv have? I think I like a flop check as his flop calling range has many hands we dominate and I’d rather bet JT if it didnt have backdoor spades. I could potentially have led turn to get value vs small pairs and AQ. On river he proabably knows my range is quite capped.

There is a chance I could have checked twice to induce with KK or 33. I have better Tx to call with. I decided he narrows his bluffing range by checking back flop (discounts QJ,J9,AQ bluffs by checking althoguh AQ he may check). His only value hand that makes sense is 33 but this looks like AQ. He bet huge here and at the time I thought I’d call with AT, KT and maybe QT so i can fold what has now become the bottom of my turn check call range. 

michaeldi11on
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September 17, 2015 - 6:57 pm
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PokerStars – $20+$20+$4|20/40 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

(MP): 63.63 BB
(CO): 88.75 BB 
(BTN): 128.25 BB 
(SB): 61.88 BB 
(BB): 112.38 BB 
mjdsk8 (UTG): 75 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) mjdsk8 has Jspade Tspade

mjdsk8 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Button calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) Kspade 4club Tclub
mjdsk8 checks, Button checks

Turn: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 3heart
mjdsk8 checks, Button bets 5 BB, mjdsk8 calls 5 BB

River: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 7heart
mjdsk8 checks, Button bets 22.5 BB

Hero????

navinbits
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September 17, 2015 - 7:28 pm
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I don’t have a problem folding to the river bet here. You don’t have much invested in the pot, and you don’t have the best 2nd pair either. Yes the villain could have a lot of airs, missed straight draws etc in his range, but I personally am not looking him up with marginal holdings for an overbet river.

michaeldi11on
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September 17, 2015 - 7:30 pm
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“am not looking him up with marginal holdings for an overbet river.”

Are you not worried that this is exactly why this player is probably making this bet sizing? We rarely have anything but a bluff catcher here

navinbits
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September 18, 2015 - 4:47 am
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Well, yes, but unless you have a read that he will do that more often than not and that he is doing it right now, there is no reason to call off 1/3 of your stack when the odds you are getting are less than 2:1. 

GunnJD
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September 18, 2015 - 8:32 am
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Interesting spot. The type of player that is capable of doing this as a bluff is probably pretty good. Would be sure to make a note of this even if you didn’t see his hand. 

 

I’m not sure that we should be too worried about “our hand being face up”. Once again, if this is the type of player that can really do something with that information, then we should make a note and check/call more often. 

 

What do you think his range is on the turn?

He’s very polarized here, and I do think this is how he would play 56. 

 

Regarding your own range, where does your hand fall? Are there any Kings in your range that you’d check twice on this board? 

Foucault

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September 18, 2015 - 5:52 pm
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navinbits said
I don’t have a problem folding to the river bet here. You don’t have much invested in the pot, and you don’t have the best 2nd pair either. Yes the villain could have a lot of airs, missed straight draws etc in his range, but I personally am not looking him up with marginal holdings for an overbet river.

Your kicker isn’t relevant, V isn’t jamming better Jacks. You beat his bluffs, you lose to his value bets, and what matters is the ratio of one to the other. It also isn’t relevant how much you have personally invested. If I offered to flip a coin with you, $110 if you win, $100 if you lose, would you decline becase you didn’t have anything invested?

You seem to be assuming an overbet will rarely or never be a bluff. That may be true in the player pool you’re currently competing against, but you should realize that there’s no reason it has to be true, and you’re going to struggle against tougher opponents if you decide they have it whenever they bet big.

Foucault

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September 18, 2015 - 5:55 pm
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Bet turn. As played, it is close, but I’d fold. It’s very relevant that 65 got there.

navinbits
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September 18, 2015 - 8:11 pm
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Foucault said:

“Your kicker isn’t relevant, V isn’t jamming better Jacks. You beat his bluffs, you lose to his value bets, and what matters is the ratio of one to the other.”

Totally agree with this point. Yes, I am making this observation against the player pool I’ve played against. I always have this tendency to put people on bluffs and call off such big overbets on the river in both tournaments and cash games and more often than not, I have been burned. Not saying calling is totally bad here, but I like your line of thinking as to what kind of hands that had zero equity got there on the river. If river didn’t complete any draws, would you *always* call here? Seems to make sense, as villain would mostly V-bet his sets or 2-pairs and not overbet. 

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