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Facing river check raise
michaeldi11on
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July 8, 2015 - 8:18 pm
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PokerStars – $5+$0.50|300/600 Ante 70 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

juanalbahaca (SB): 38.38 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
papillon422 (BB): 137.27 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 6)
Pappamo69 (UTG): 33.89 BB (VPIP: 6.52, PFR: 2.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
spammer9 (UTG+1): 30.21 BB (VPIP: 14.38, PFR: 8.55, 3Bet Preflop: 4.29, Hands: 153)
kotovkii (MP): 24.09 BB (VPIP: 17.19, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 66)
geison17 (MP+1): 11.41 BB (VPIP: 24.71, PFR: 15.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 85)
mjdsk8 (MP+2): 36.32 BB
MikeBBBell (CO): 4.1 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
coral_888 (BTN): 5.96 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, juanalbahaca posts SB 0.5 BB, papillon422 posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.55 BB) mjdsk8 has Qheart Qdiamond

fold, fold, fold, fold, [color=red]mjdsk8 raises to 2.15 BB[/color], fold, fold, fold, papillon422 calls 1.15 BB

Flop: (5.85 BB, 2 players) Jdiamond Kdiamond Tspade
papillon422 checks, mjdsk8 checks

Turn: (5.85 BB, 2 players) 3heart
papillon422 checks, [color=red]mjdsk8 bets 3 BB[/color], papillon422 calls 3 BB

River: (11.85 BB, 2 players) Adiamond
papillon422 checks, [color=red]mjdsk8 bets 6.52 BB[/color], [color=red]papillon422 raises to 132 BB and is all-in[/color]

 

I have 14.7k behind (24.5bb). I'm getting 2-1 odds, so need to be right 33% of the time. The shove is for 17% of his stack

michaeldi11on
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July 8, 2015 - 8:25 pm
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This hand is from BIG $5.50. So villain got moved to this table about 6 hands before this. The hand I saw him play, he just 3bet all in over a 36bb MP min raise with 4-5 players left to act. He had QQ. He had 130bb at the time and the rest of the table covered but that's obviously a sign he isn't playing optimally.

His line here on the river does look super scary for my hand but with 0 reads, and he has so many chips, i coudn't help factoring in that he may just be wreckless and check without thinking, then when i bet he realises i probably don't want to call a shove very often, he might just punt it in. I know this is wishful thinking but I'm getting 2-1 odds, have a blocker to the nuts and he isn't exactly a standard solid player.

As a standard play I think this is maybe a bet-fold as we have all the flushes and its difficult for him to get to the river with a hand that needs to bluff. Still though, I think it's a tough spot.

Also, what do you think of my line up until this point?

Thoughts? Anyone? ANY input is really great 🙂

Foucault

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July 9, 2015 - 8:28 pm
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You have all the flushes? I don't know about that. Wouldn't you c-bet a lot of flush draws? Without the Qd this is a trivial bet-fold, and I could see folding anyway simply because I wouldn't expect a lot of c/r bluffing on rivers in a $5 MTT, but if you're unsure, I see no problem with calling when you have such a significant blocker.

michaeldi11on
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July 9, 2015 - 9:54 pm
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Yea just thinking now, I'd check back some Ax flush draws but cbet most of the lower ones. His flush draws have to be 9x, Tx, 8x or lower because of the diamonds that we can see so as nutted as his line looked, folding is more difficult.

I would bet-fold this, even with the queen blocker against most players at the table but something about him 3bet shoving 40bb in that QQ hand previously, and him having 4 times as many chips as anyone else, made me think that with no info on how he plays, he might just be jamming some trash like J9 on this river.

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