November 18, 2013
$125 live tournament in Las Vegas. Field has been exceptionally soft full of passive tourists.
We just combined to the final table recently. I was crushing my table with 2 tables left, but most of the knockouts in the last two tables came at my table. so most of the villains including the one in this hand are unknown. 9 players left 7 paid. Blinds (2K/ 4K/ 500). Average stack is about 85K.
Villain (220K) is a 20-something Asian guy from Hong Kong. I have only seen him play a few orbits and he didn't seem very active, but small sample size.
Hero (160K) I have been fairly quiet at the new table due to being card dead and having some 8-12 BB stacks on my left so villain has no reason to perceive me as aggro. He may have seen me raise / fold to a shove once in three orbits.
Hero raises 9500 with J9. Folds to villain in BB who calls
Flop (25,500) K63 Villain leads for 20K. Hero?
My instinct is to call the flop and evaluate the turn, but I don't want to rule out raising or folding.
Raising would probably commit me to calling a 3 bet since I would be geting 3:1 odds on an 8 out draw which seems like an unnecessary risk. If I raise and he calls but I miss the turn, there's no guarantee I will get a free card.
Folding seems too weak, but I don't love calling. Villain's bet seems pretty large. I have equity, but I'm not sure how great my implied odds are on a call. I need 4:1 on a call, I'm getting 2.2:1 in direct odds, so he would need to call at least 35K on the turn or river if I hit. Calling and missing will get me much closer to the average stack and I'm going to miss 80% of the time.
My plan pre-flop mainly was to steal the blinds, or use my initiative to win with a c-bet post-flop. Since neither of these worked, I could give up and preserve my chips. I don't like any of my three choices. Which do you dislike the least
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