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(0 votes) 
September 8, 2016
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Hey all,
A friend of mine played the following hand in the $22 Micro event yesterday. We were trying to figure out if this is a good shove spot but couldn’t come to a conclusion.
I plugged in the hand into ICMizer 2 and it shows we have a +0.4BB Cev spot assuming villian shoves 43%.
Villian arrived to the table 2 hands ago so we assume V shoves nash ranges although I believe in general players would play a bit tighter. According to Nash, this is a +0.4BB cEV. Should we take this rather marginal spot or do we prefer to lower variance and preserve our 23BB stack to find a more +cEV (potentially reshove) spot in this case?
In addition, we are with 680 left and the next pay jump takes place around 500. Does this influences our decision slightly or is too far away to consider ICM here?
Would really appreciate some thoughts, Thanks!
PokerStars Hand #162806847882: Tournament #1734197337, $20+$2 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level XXXIV (17500/35000) – 2016/12/11 20:30:37 ET
Table ‘1734197337 2264’ 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: TonanZ88 (3532041 in chips)
Seat 2: Deniseus (1223257 in chips)
Seat 3: foxxx55525 (535127 in chips)
Seat 4: kiko72 (564210 in chips)
Seat 5: future181 (268866 in chips)
Seat 6: kamerik20jr (821156 in chips)
Seat 7: YuliyaSereda (358172 in chips)
Seat 8: sazu79 (1197260 in chips)
Seat 9: Heliodosreis (529414 in chips)
TonanZ88: posts the ante 3500
Deniseus: posts the ante 3500
foxxx55525: posts the ante 3500
kiko72: posts the ante 3500
future181: posts the ante 3500
kamerik20jr: posts the ante 3500
YuliyaSereda: posts the ante 3500
sazu79: posts the ante 3500
Heliodosreis: posts the ante 3500
hero posts small blind 17500
YuliyaSereda: posts big blind 35000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero[3c Ah]
sazu79: folds
Heliodosreis: folds
TonanZ88: folds
Deniseus: folds
foxxx55525: folds
kiko72: folds
future181: raises 230366 to 265366 and is all-in
June 2, 2013
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I think I would try to isolate this one, BB has 10bb stack, but he won´t wake up with strong hands that often, and BTN shoving range should be wide enough to make A3o profitable. Considering an unknown V.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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+0.4bb is +40bb/100. That’s not marginal. If you’re a very good 8bb player you might just about manage a 4bb/100 winrate at these stacks, meaning you make 0.04bb/hand. If that’s your winrate and you fold this spot, it takes you ten hands to get back what you gave away.
In reality, a lot of people’s winrates at these stacks are just above breakeven or even negative, and I would imagine that since you’re asking this question there’s at least a chance you’re in one of those categories. In that event, it might take you 40, 50 or 100 hands to recover what you give away by folding a +0.4bb spot.
Folding here isn’t lower variance, it’s just a mistake, especially since the BB only has 10bb so you don’t even bust if you get overcalled. “Lowering variance” is just something people say to justify being risk-averse.
It’s also worth noting that the idea of “we should only call Nash if villain is shoving Nash” is a common misconception. Nash ranges are universally more profitable, because if villain shoves too wide, the top of our range benefits, and if they shove too tight, we benefit from them folding more. Anything villain does that isn’t Nash, we profit. If we have a reliable read we can go with, maybe we can fold a little more or call a little more, but to be honest you’re unlikely to ever play enough short-stacked hands against someone to get anything more than a broad assumption about their shoving ranges.
As far as the money jump goes, if we’re 180 people away then it’s not a consideration at all, so no need to worry about that.
In general, absolutely everyone massively overestimates their edge at short stacks. It would benefit you (OP) and probably everyone else in here to completely eliminate the phrase “wait for a better spot” from your poker vocabulary. You don’t know what spots are going to come up later. You need to take the profit that is offered to you here and now.
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