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August 25, 2014
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I can get more stats on this villain later but he had check raised me previously in a similar spot and he wasn’t repping a whole lot. I’d be interested to hear peoples thoughts on facing check raises. The way I see it, the board has changed in such a way that he is barreling this turn card with his bluffs 100% time and he’s likely bluffing this river too. I don’t think i can ever fold 2 pair in this spot.
I’m interested if others would call down here and how would you play a 9 of clubs river that we really have a total bluff catcher on.
August 25, 2014
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Heres me facing another x/r today. Thoughts on this hand? His line makes no sense and i hate folding if villain is bluffing a huge % of the time
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December 6, 2012
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Hand 1 – Fold preflop. I like the flop and turn calls, but I would actually fold river. I don’t think it’s relevant that you made two pair, you still just have a bluff-catcher, and this is just about the nut worst river for you. Villain’s most likely bluffs are flush and straight draws, and the river improves all of them.
Hand 2 – I like the flop call, and I appreciate the moxie and creativity of the turn raise, but I think I’d just fold turn. The problem with using your hand for a semi-bluff is that even if it gets there you’re going to have problems getting paid. Better to use stronger gutshots for your bluffs here. It’s not many combos, but then you really shouldn’t be doing much bluffing here either, because you’re repping an awfully thin range.
August 25, 2014
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In hand 1 – Are you flatting your whole continuing range to this x/r? I feel I would likely call with sets, overpairs and fd's here as villains range doesnt have many strong hands and taking away his bluffs seems bad.
Some villain dependent reasons for calling down flop and turn:
Villains flop bet is 62% (10/16), turn bet 57% (4/7) and river bet 67% (2/3). This is from a guy playing 26 vpip, 23 pfr too so it's not likely he gets to flops with strong ranges. His 3bet is like 24% vs steals so his flatting range here probably doesnt have any overpairs and he knows I don't hit this flop very often.
I get what you're saying about relevant hand strength and that we have a bluff catcher but against a villain that never folds, is calling with sets/flushes enough here? Given that he likely check raises this flop with so many overcards that have a club and barrels this run out with nearly all his bluffs (imo)
August 25, 2014
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We need 27%. I'll try it in flopzilla tonight and see how often he needs to be bluffing
November 24, 2013
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A few thoughts:
I think the cbets are kind of marginal in both hands especially with this sizing. You're deep (60 and 90 BB), both hands have a board that hits the range of the BB much harder than your range and then you cbet 40% on a board that has both straight and flush draws. Would you really play a strong hand, say an overpair, like that? Probably not, and that's why it's not too surprising that you got raised with air on these boards.
Hand 1 i basically agree with Foucault, I can see myself calling that river too, but Im a calling station 
Hand 2 if you think villain is FOS I think Ill rather 3bet flop. You have 5hi and not many turn cards are good for you, basically you have only 3 outs that you can be sure of, Id either try to take it away right there or give up. It's good that you observe players tendencies and try to play back, but staying in pots on multiple streets with almost no equity and changing board textures, that's usually not gonna go well.
August 25, 2014
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I agree with the bet sizing. I thought about this too on Sunday and decided to cbet 55% on certain boards and 35-40% on dry boards. At micro stakes, players just float every hand if you bet super small. I've seen it work in videos on this site but generally in higher stakes tournaments.
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