I didn't have much of a read on the villian. His stats at this point was 16/8 with only 25 hands. He was also 1 for 1 in CBs. What would you think he had on when he makes an over bet on the flop? My first thought is a flush draw. There could be trips here but not sure. What would be the best coarse of action from here on?
Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t600.00/t1200.00 Blinds – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
freneros (SB): t79309.00 66.09 BBs
101hsc (BB): t18480.00 15.40 BBs
ikori (UTG): t107969.00 89.97 BBs
Aquarius-BW (UTG+1): t34642.00 28.87 BBs
veron_s_1985 (MP1): t32490.00 27.07 BBs
Hero (MP2): t62121.00 51.77 BBs
vegasjfd87 (CO): t50366.00 41.97 BBs
AKJokerstars (BTN): t31005.00 25.84 BBs
Pre Flop: (t1800) Hero is MP2 with J J
ikori raises to t3600, 2 folds, Hero calls t3600, 4 folds
Flop: (t9000) T 5 8 (2 players)
ikori bets t15600.00, Hero ?
Plugging the 16% VPIP into PokerStove returns the following:
Board: Td 5d 8s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.282% 64.86% 00.42% 107238 693.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 34.718% 34.30% 00.42% 56706 693.00 { QQ+, JcJd, TcTh, TcTs, ThTs, 99, 8c8d, 8c8h, 8d8h, 77-66, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5h5s, AQs+, AcJc, AdJd, AcTc, AhTh, AsTs, A9s-A7s, Ac5c, Ah5h, As5s, KQs, KcJc, KdJd, KsJs, KcTc, KhTh, KsTs, K9s, QcJc, QdJd, QcTc, QhTh, QsTs, Q9s, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, ATo+, KTo+, QcJd, QdJc, QhJc, QhJd, QsJc, QsJd }
So you have good equity.
If i had to take a stab, he probably has some sort of made hand which can't really improve, i.e. QQ the other 2 JJ's etc…… It's a really big overbet though, i wouldn't hate a fold here. When you think of all the cards you have to fade on the Turn/River that scare you…. etc i.e. all the Ace's King's Queen's etc diamonds.
At low stakes players can make these terrible overbets w JJ+, A10, sets, combodraws… These type of players just dont want to loose with their monster/made hands more than extracting value from them. They'll rather pick up a small pot than to be outdrawn by a flush or straight and loose with aces or kings cuz they think they should always win the pot when holding a premium. The idea and fear of loosing with these hands overcomes the fact that they have the possibility to get more/max value from weaker hands because they cant fold when a draw completes and loose with their “99%” preflop equity hands.
As mentioned make the “cautious” fold.
KingBustYou said:
The idea and fear of loosing with these hands overcomes the fact that they have the possibility to get more/max value from weaker hands
This is an important concept for beginners and even intermediate players which admittedly i took a while to get used to
Imagine if we hold AA here – it's tempting to bet stupid amounts for fear of getting outdrawn, but the fact of the matter is that it's a lot more important to control the pot and get value from these hands rather than chase them out
The key here i think is 'what are we going to do on any non J turn if we call a flop bet?'
Hell even if we hit the Jd he's probably got re-draw outs
More often than not the answer to our question is going to be to fold – so preserve chips here and make that decision now
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
72 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1