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Facing an over bet on the flop
Scott610
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May 25, 2011 - 2:04 am
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I didn't have much of a read on the villian.  His stats at this point was 16/8 with only 25 hands.  He was also 1 for 1 in CBs.  What would you think he had on when he makes an over bet on the flop?  My first thought is a flush draw.  There could be trips here but not sure. What would be the best coarse of action from here on?

 

Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t600.00/t1200.00 Blinds – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

freneros (SB): t79309.00 66.09 BBs
101hsc (BB): t18480.00 15.40 BBs
ikori (UTG): t107969.00 89.97 BBs
Aquarius-BW (UTG+1): t34642.00 28.87 BBs
veron_s_1985 (MP1): t32490.00 27.07 BBs
Hero (MP2): t62121.00 51.77 BBs
vegasjfd87 (CO): t50366.00 41.97 BBs
AKJokerstars (BTN): t31005.00 25.84 BBs

Pre Flop: (t1800) Hero is MP2 with J of spades J of hearts
ikori raises to t3600, 2 folds, Hero calls t3600, 4 folds

Flop: (t9000) T of diamonds 5 of diamonds 8 of spades (2 players)
ikori bets t15600.00, Hero ?

G0liath
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May 25, 2011 - 3:59 am
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Horrible bet by our villain. Puts us in a tricky spot but i thik the key to this hand is – why would he want to scare you off the pot if he flopped trips or had AA KK?

 

Looks to me that he has AK and got annoyed that he missed the flop – i see this quite often at lowstakes.

southpaw_r32
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May 25, 2011 - 4:00 am
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Plugging the 16% VPIP into PokerStove returns the following:

Board: Td 5d 8s
Dead: 

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied   
Hand 0:     65.282%      64.86%     00.42%             107238           693.00   { JhJs }
Hand 1:     34.718%      34.30%     00.42%              56706           693.00   { QQ+, JcJd, TcTh, TcTs, ThTs, 99, 8c8d, 8c8h, 8d8h, 77-66, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5h5s, AQs+, AcJc, AdJd, AcTc, AhTh, AsTs, A9s-A7s, Ac5c, Ah5h, As5s, KQs, KcJc, KdJd, KsJs, KcTc, KhTh, KsTs, K9s, QcJc, QdJd, QcTc, QhTh, QsTs, Q9s, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, ATo+, KTo+, QcJd, QdJc, QhJc, QhJd, QsJc, QsJd }

So you have good equity.

 

If i had to take a stab, he probably has some sort of made hand which can't really improve, i.e. QQ the other 2 JJ's etc…… It's a really big overbet though, i wouldn't hate a fold here. When you think of all the cards you have to fade on the Turn/River that scare you…. etc i.e. all the Ace's King's Queen's etc diamonds.

hawkeyeK9
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May 25, 2011 - 1:15 pm
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Agree with Goliath but also see this at low stakes with guys who are scared to play QQ or KK.

HITTHEPANDA
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May 25, 2011 - 5:47 pm
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i fold here and feel fine about it.  too marginal spot against what most likely is a combo draw, 2 overs + draw, or overpair. 16/8 over 25 hands isn't good enough for me to think he can do this after opening utg with top pair. and he 3x'd pre.  peace it

KingBustYou
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May 25, 2011 - 6:18 pm
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At low stakes players can make these terrible overbets w JJ+, A10, sets, combodraws… These type of players just dont want to loose with their monster/made hands more than extracting value from them. They'll rather pick up a small pot than to be outdrawn by a flush or straight and loose with aces or kings cuz they think they should always win the pot when holding a premium. The idea and fear of loosing with these hands overcomes the fact that they have the possibility to get more/max value from weaker hands because they cant fold when a draw completes and loose with their “99%” preflop equity hands.

As mentioned make the “cautious” fold. 

hapetimes
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May 25, 2011 - 11:50 pm
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KingBustYou said:

The idea and fear of loosing with these hands overcomes the fact that they have the possibility to get more/max value from weaker hands

 

This is an important concept for beginners and even intermediate players which admittedly i took a while to get used to

Imagine if we hold AA here – it's tempting to bet stupid amounts for fear of getting outdrawn, but the fact of the matter is that it's a lot more important to control the pot and get value from these hands rather than chase them out

 

The key here i think is 'what are we going to do on any non J turn if we call a flop bet?'

Hell even if we hit the Jd he's probably got re-draw outs

 

More often than not the answer to our question is going to be to fold – so preserve chips here and make that decision now

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