Home
(0 votes) 
May 26, 2013
Offline
Good morning, TPE.
I'm playing a live $150 tournament at my local casino. The blinds are 150/300 with no antes, the next blind level (150/300/25) is about ten minutes away and each level is 24 minutes long. Of the nine other players at my table five are really weak and the rest are, if not good then at least, decent. I do however think I can hold my own against any of them and I'm in a fairly good position with a stack of about 17K which covers all the players involved in the hand in question.
UTG and two other players limp for 300 and I make it 1500 from the CO holding AQ of spades. The button calls as do the BB, UTG and one of the other limpers resulting in five people seeing the flop. The flop comes down 467 with two diamonds, UTG moves all-in for his remaining 2500 into a pot of 7950 and the limper after him folds.
The button (with about 5K left) and the BB (with about 8K left) are unknowns to me but I have the BB pegged as a really really weak player and the button as a weak-ish and pretty tight player. The BB keeps glancing back and forth between the pot and his own remaining chips and the button is not giving away much at all.
My thoughts here are that given the pot size and drawy flop texture, the fact that I cover both the button and the BB and that at least the button is pretty tight I should move all-in as well. The ideal outcome would be to push the others out of the pot and be up against some sort of draw or at least have six over (twice) to win the pot. Even if any of the players call and I loose I will still be in the tournament with about 8K left.
I'd love to hear your take on this, TPE.
Is my reasoning at all valid? Should I move in or is a fold better? Is it a close call?
Any fedback will be greatly appreciated.
March 8, 2013
Offline
First of all, lets consider how +EV it is if your shove is successful and you showdown heads up. The pot will be 12950, and you will be contributing 19.3% of it.
You didn't give any reads on UTG, but given that he is limping with <15BB, he is probably pretty bad. Important questions include if he is positionally aware at all, if he raises the top of his range or always limps, how much he limps, etc. For a total guess, let's put his limping range at 22-TT, A2-AQs, A9-AQo, KT+s, KQo, QTs+, JTs-54s. When you raise and two players call, many bad players will consider themselves priced in and call with their entire range.
On the flop, with a 1/3-pot bet remaining, I would expect him to shove with 8+ out draws, pairs, and better.
Against that range, you are 25.2% to win, giving you an edge of 5.9% of the pot, or 764 chips.
Your reads on the remaining players make it seem like button is likely to have started with high cards or a pair, and will probably fold most of the time to this scary-looking action. BB seems to be contemplating a call/shove, so I think we can expect him to have a pair or a draw. It's hard to predict what range he will call with, or exactly what our equity will be in a three-way pot, but common sense tells me risking 8K with two overs trying to win 764 chips is probably a bad idea.
Given how weak BB is, I think if you just call he is more likely to call with a wide range. You will get weaker hands to put more money in the pot and get to see the turn before putting the last 5.5K in. This seems better than shoving to me.
If you didn't have the physical read on BB, I would call. Given the read, I would fold.
May 26, 2013
Offline
Great feedback, thanks!
Your thoughts on calling if the BB had not shown the physical tells he did are pretty much how I thought of it as well. I did end up folding as did in fact the BB who later claimed to have had a five for a straight draw. The button called with JJ and held against the A4 of diamonds of the SB.
When I asked him afterwards the button said he would probably have folded his jacks if I had gone all in but who knows, he might have just been saying that.
Thanks again for you input.
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
61 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1
