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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy facing a suspect shove on the river…

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facing a suspect shove on the river, deep

flop ostile

italy

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September 5, 2018 - 7:35 pm

hi every one, this is my first topic:)

the oppo is a reg and i just have 230 hands of him and he s playing 28 vpp 20 pfr with a 3betting of 10% ip and 19 oop, but never vs mp (in 19 times). anyway i m pretty sure he wolud have 3 bet ak, so the only hand that really beat me is a slowplayed AA because i think he is going to raise at some point of the hand with sets. Howewer i ca’nt figure out wich hands he tries to turn into a bluff having in my range a lot of nuts hands.

is the size of the turn and river bet right? it was a good bet fold?

i need 36% of winng calls to be, what do you think?

PokerStars Hand #190702226303: Tournament #2395327593, €13.20+€1.80 EUR Hold’em No Limit – Level III (50/100) [AAMS ID: M474810FCBAE61XW] – 2018/09/05 21:38:22 CET [2018/09/05 15:38:22 ET]
Table ‘2395327593 5’ 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: thecogo (10000 in chips)
Seat 2: trilvale (8845 in chips)
Seat 3: creativoa (20800 in chips)
Seat 4: Davis_ITA (10345 in chips)
Seat 5: DEPRESSO-CT (11195 in chips)
Seat 6: giocodapoco1 (9925 in chips)
Seat 7: murenAA (20125 in chips)
Seat 8: imorino86 (8996 in chips)
Seat 9: nellino0103 (11779 in chips)
thecogo: posts the ante 10
trilvale: posts the ante 10
creativoa: posts the ante 10
Davis_ITA: posts the ante 10
DEPRESSO-CT: posts the ante 10
giocodapoco1: posts the ante 10
murenAA: posts the ante 10
imorino86: posts the ante 10
nellino0103: posts the ante 10
creativoa: posts small blind 50
Davis_ITA: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to murenAA [Qc Kc]
DEPRESSO-CT: folds
giocodapoco1: folds
murenAA: raises 135 to 235
imorino86: folds
nellino0103: calls 235
thecogo: folds
trilvale: folds
creativoa: folds
Davis_ITA: calls 135
*** FLOP *** [Kh 3c Ks]
Davis_ITA: checks
murenAA: bets 450
nellino0103: calls 450
Davis_ITA: folds
*** TURN *** [Kh 3c Ks] [2c]
murenAA: bets 900
nellino0103: calls 900
*** RIVER *** [Kh 3c Ks 2c] [Ah]
murenAA: bets 1650
nellino0103: raises 8534 to 10184 and is all-in
murenAA: folds
Uncalled bet (8534) returned to nellino0103
nellino0103 collected 6845 from pot
nellino0103: doesn’t show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6845 | Rake 0
Board [Kh 3c Ks 2c Ah]
Seat 1: thecogo folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 2: trilvale (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 3: creativoa (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Davis_ITA (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: DEPRESSO-CT folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 6: giocodapoco1 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 7: murenAA folded on the River
Seat 8: imorino86 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 9: nellino0103 collected (6845)

DuckinDaDeck

Hunting Max EV

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September 6, 2018 - 1:59 am

Ugh, this is a nasty spot. I think flop sizing is good, I would go larger on both turn and river. In villain’s shoes, I’m never flatting AA or AK given these positions and stack depths, I’m folding 22 to your flop bet and raising 33 on the flop or turn, so I can safely say I don’t have any full houses by the river. That being said, this feels like a “they always have it” kind of spot.

With your description of the villain, it’s hard to think they’re losing their mind and bluffing when we’ve shown this much strength. I don’t know if they ever play KJ or KQ like this. FWIW, we block the flush draw, so even less likely they are bluffing. I’m on the fence about calling, I think you’re probably better off folding but it’s close.

Maniackid11

Eating Fish

Balla

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September 6, 2018 - 3:12 am

Hey flop ostile. Glad you posted this!

So right away: stack sizes, you both are really deep at this point, you have rougly 201bb to start and Villain has roughly 117bb. I mention this now because I have a slight feeling this may be a factor. Honestly I don’t know why exactly yet but lets see…

I’m with my man DDD, I don’t think he’s flatting pre here too often with AA, AK, or even QQ. I think those hands are def. 3-bets. Maybe AQ , AJ, KT,KJ,KQ,QJs. This deep I could see a flat with 22-TT with JJ being a questionable 3-bet.

I love your aggression on the flop, I think your sizing is fine. maybe a little bigger with turn bet 1000-1100, but I don’t hate 900.

I’m with my man DDD on river, I think something more like 2300 ish is better. Because you’re getting an even better price to call his river shove. After doing some of this math (which was excruciating and I have a headache(in a good way)) I think we should be calling.

He laid us 35% pot odds and our hand vs his range is good 40% vs range 45%, so we have the right price. BUT having said all that, I like your fold for the simple fact that it’s not an easy spot. Other than that, we should call: if he has a boat, good game, on to the next one.

flop ostile

italy

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September 6, 2018 - 8:46 am

Thank you guys for the answers, i really appreciate it.I like the fact your both have doubts about the call on the river, I was multitabling and I think this is one of those spots where I guess he always got the only hand that make sense and I feel like it would have been a goofy call. Rewiewing it in post session and after reading your answer I think it was a bad fold

Foucault

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September 6, 2018 - 11:03 am

Better players will find ways to bluff here, and I call vs them. With weaker players, there’s a chance they’re overvaluing KJ or KT and I call vs them. Only vs a known nit would I fold.

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