Home
(0 votes) 
September 8, 2016
Offline
Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold’em Tournament – t800/t1600 Blinds + t200 – 9 players – View hand 2962484
Hero (CO): t44436 M = 10.58
BTN: t69208 M = 16.48
SB: t61064 M = 14.54
BB: t86927 M = 20.70
UTG: t26878 M = 6.40
UTG+1: t23297 M = 5.55
UTG+2: t23402 M = 5.57
MP1: t55934 M = 13.32
MP2: t10694 M = 2.55
Pre Flop: (t4200) Hero is CO with A Q
5 folds, Hero raises to t3200, BTN raises to t6900, 2 folds, hero: Call vs all in???
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
I played this hand yesterday in the Hot 11. Villain is an unknown. I had only two hands on him up until this moment. Two valid options seems to be (1) 4-Bet Jam, or (2) Call his 3bet and evaluate flop.
To decide I have to put villain on ranges. What ranges would we give villain in this situation for 3 betting me and what % of his range for overcalling my 4bet jam.
When I put Villian on a 7,1% 3bet range (88+, ATs+, AQo+, TJs,T9s & 89s)
and an overcall range of 5,1% (99+, AQo+, AQs+), the 4bet jam options seems slightly negative Chip EV. In this case calling the 3bet OOP seems favorable.
Do you guys think I assess the situation correctly, and also do you believe the range I assigned to his 3bet and overcall range are realistic for an unknown in a ‘Hot 10’ tourney?
Look forward to you thoughts on this hand.
Thanks in advance!
February 20, 2015
Offline
How close to the money are you?
September 8, 2016
Offline
I believe we are just ITM here. Not 100% but assuming thats the case!
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
Offline
Seems pretty tough not to go all-in here. I think your 3-betting range for villain is not polarized enough since BTN almost certainly has a flat-calling range versus your open, and I have a feeling your math might be off with regard to the shove being -cEV. If villain were 3-betting 7% and calling it off with 5% then they’re folding to your 4-bet shove around 28% of the time, and I can’t see a hand as strong as AQs not being profitable when we have a decent amount of fold equity like that.
I also think it’s worth noting that on most flops that are good for AQs (flush draws, Q high, A high mostly) you’re rarely going to be able to get value or get it all-in against worse, but you’re not going to be able to fold in the event that your opponent has AK/KK/AA. I think your best shot at realising all your equity here is to get it in, as long as we have roughly the amount of fold equity you think we do.
That said, I haven’t run the numbers so I might be slightly off, and I think a hand like ATs or AJo is fairly close since those are less playable as a flat-call.
September 8, 2016
Offline
Thanks for the feedback. You are probably right that my range includes a big part of villain’s flat-calling range. After polarizing the range and doing the math again this spot seems +cEV after all.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
Offline
improvementss said
Thanks for the feedback. You are probably right that my range includes a big part of villain’s flat-calling range. After polarizing the range and doing the math again this spot seems +cEV after all.
Glad to know my instincts were somewhat accurate!
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
78 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Philbro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12007
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1
