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November 20, 2017
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Hello TPE. I was recently put in a spot that made me realize I may need to work on my mental game.
Ignition Tournament, could have been an $11-$33 in level 2.
No reads. Let’s say 100bb deep. Villain minraises in MP. I 3bet to 6bb with AQo MP+1. Folds to villain who calls.
(13.5bb) Ac Th 6h.
Villain checks, I bet 4.5bb, villain shoves 94bb. Villain’s are shoving AK and AT long before they resort to shoving KQ, QJ, any two hearts right?
There isn’t much more than that to my thoughts. I assume a minraise/call can be nearly 15% of hands, including suited any two gappers+, small to mid pairs, most broadway, AQ-AK. But what the heck are the different buckets of villain’s shoving here with?
June 2, 2013
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I think is too much bbs for AQo on that board, with a lower SPR I would GII for sure.
V may be shoving Ahxh, sets and two pair, maybe some weaker Ace, with no read I am folding that
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I think it would be good to recognize that it’s not enough to just say you have ‘AQo’ here. Which AQo do you have? Do you have the Qh? If you do, that blocker makes a massive difference to our assumptions about villain’s range here – it removes hands like KhQh and QhJh, which are some of the most likely bluffing hands villain could feasibly have.
November 20, 2017
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Apology for not including suit. Say we dont have the Qh. That opens up kq, qj q9, aq. That’s only 4 hands. Since this is so low, should I just assume it can’t be profitable to call off?
February 8, 2017
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I think this is a fold unless you have a strong read. Ignition seems to have a lot of players that are spazz shoving all sorts of garbage with exactly this line (even at the $55 buy-ins and $162 Sunday) but, unless you’ve already seen this player make some wild shoves, I think we need to assume the worst hand in villain’s range is a combo draw.
Another thing I’ve noticed on Ignition is that good players will sometimes play their nut hands in exactly this manner during the early stages. Although I doubt I’ll work it in to my game, I think it’s a clever adaptation to the player pool. Mimicking the worst players leads to some light payoffs (mostly by others but I’ve been caught by this too).
November 20, 2017
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On bovada years ago, I played a hand in a $22 1.5k where utg ripped 3k at 10/20 very first hand. I had seen rips so many times and couldn’t figure out their ranges without looking it up later. Then I wake up with queens and finally see one. It was nines. I think this must have been a good player trying to get called by anyone willing to gamble.
Thanks for your thoughts. I see now I should fold.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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KableTownCEO said
Apology for not including suit. Say we dont have the Qh. That opens up kq, qj q9, aq. That’s only 4 hands. Since this is so low, should I just assume it can’t be profitable to call off?
It depends. How many combos of value hands can villain have?
November 20, 2017
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theginger45 said
It depends. How many combos of value hands can villain have?
I counted 25 with AK, AT, 66, A6s, TT, and we said 4ish bluffs?
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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KableTownCEO said
I counted 25 with AK, AT, 66, A6s, TT, and we said 4ish bluffs?
Right. So from there, all we need to do is look at the pot odds we’re getting and identify how much equity we need to call. In this case, it’s around 44%, with us getting around 1.25:1.
Do we have 44% equity against a range of 25 strong value combos and 4 bluff combos? Doubtful, but this is a math problem you can do yourself.
This process of identifying ranges and estimating equity is all we need in order to make a good decision here. If villain has lots of value combos and very few bluffs, we probably shouldn’t call.
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