Morning,

I may be letting this guy psych me out.  Seen him tearing it up at 5-10 dollar stakes, he sharkscopes decently at $15 avg stakes having made $4k on Merge.  After a small but reasonable n=134, TURTLEFARTS plays 31/22 with 8% open limp, 8% 3bet, 25% squeeze, 86% cbet, 63% steal, and 50% resteal.

This came up in the first few hands of a $10 Turbo MTT.  I have no information on the UTG raiser.

Merge Network $600 Gtd – [Turbo, Deep] (79515292-1) No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t15.00/t30.00 Blinds – 9 players – View hand 2597132
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

DJIA9900 (BB): t10405.00 346.83 BBs
OGKUSH215 (UTG): t4288.00 142.93 BBs
jayyhicks (Utg+1): t4895.00 163.17 BBs
SapoCocas20 (MP1): t5000.00 166.67 BBs
kattrink (MP2): t5000.00 166.67 BBs
Hero (HJ): t4985.00 166.17 BBs
lobsterbisk (CO): t4955.00 165.17 BBs
RichSS1 (BTN): t5000.00 166.67 BBs
TURTLEFARTS (SB): t5472.00 182.40 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is with 9 9
OGKUSH215 raises to t105.00, 3 folds,

I don't know this player, and since he's UTG making a swift typed 3x on the third hand, I keep his range open to weak holdings, but weight it towards 44-AA, A9s+, ATo+, KJs+, KQo+, JTs+.  My hand is strong, but there are players behind me and I'm not going to be able to call a reraise if the UTG player 4bets me.

Hero calls t105, 1 fold, RichSS1 calls t105, TURTLEFARTS raises to t555.00, 1 fold, OGKUSH215 calls t450

TURTLEFARTS is an aggressive player, but he doesn't squeeze for zero reason or because he read it in HoH.  I believe he has a strong range of around 77+, AQs+ and AK here.  I think that in game I was actually placing TURTLEFARTS on more like 99+ and AK.

UTG's range is now more comfortably what it was weighted towards above.

Do I need to turn this into a set mine/extremely cautious thin value play on proper boards?  I don't feel like re-raising gets me into anything but a world of pain.  Am I wrong?

There is of course one more player to act, but he's not going to reraise too commonly.

Folding seems bad, but it is what I did. 

Hero folds.

I wonder if I'm thinking about why it's wrong correctly:  I believe it's wrong because I had both direct and implied odds here, and that even with just direct odds, I wouldn't have needed much more to justify a set mine.  The pot was 1350 and I needed to call 450.

Part of what I think confused me into folding was the rule about not calling off more than1/10 to 1/15 of the stack to set mine.  But I think now I realize that rule only applies to set mining solely for implied odds, whereas here I had both direct and implied odds.