What would you recommend my hand selection be from the last 4 seats given these conditions:
(All stats from 20K hands)
Steal Success: 35% – 40%
Flop CBet Success: 40% – 50%
Double Barrel Success: 30% – 35%
?????
General strategy regarding cbetting w/ air, semi-bluffing, and pot control in these games are also more then welcome (and encouraged).
I can tell you that your question is unfortunetly very vague and the answer you are going to get back is “it depends a lot on the situation”. Perhaps if you have some hand examples or specific sitiuations you are interested in understanding more about that would be quite helpful. I am also going to recommend to RFB to slide this one into the Strategy Forum as it is more applicable to that region of the forums (don't worry the pro's hit that section up too as well as more of the membership so you should get more info/answers).
–lespaulgman
There has to be some mathemetical approximations as to what starting hand ranges are +EV given these conditions. I don't gain an immediate profit from stealing as my opponents aren't folding enough. I tend to cbet 65-75% of flops, and I make an immediate profit from those based on the average fold frequency and my flop bet-sizing. But… surely this doesn't mean I can open ATC in LP.
Your opponents' post-flop tendencies affect your preflop strategy. If I have tight, fit-or-fold opponents behind me, then I can open _________ ranges. If I have loose-passive opponents seeing a ton of flops behind me who will see at least a turn w/ any pair, a gutshot draw or better, and sometimes overcards, then I can open _________ ranges. If I have TAG 3bettors, then I can open _________ ranges. If I have maniac 3bettors, then I can open ________ ranges. And so on…
Certain starting hands go up in value while others drop in these situations. Surely there is a mathematical ceiling for when these hands are no longer playable in these situations, right?
I think you are looking for a formulaic approach to the game that just doesn't exist. What you are asking really involves post flop dynamics which are going to be person and situation specific. Let me give you a couple of examples of what I am talking about and hopefully it can help you.
Example 1: LAG player that plays fit or fold after flop is someone that I am going to open virtually ATC on from LP (or any position where I believe that I can get a raise through other players until they realize what is going on) and C-bet 100% of the time. This player plays face up, no reason not to get in there. If he continues or raises me then I have to decide if my holding is worth continuing with based on my equity.
Example 2: TAG player that is thinking. I am going to be a lot more selective about hands I play as he is going to be inclined to play back at me. I will mix it up with all kinds of holdings here, Open/call 3bets with TT+, AQs+, fold out smaller PPs to 3bets, 4bet with KK+ and air to test him. After the flop check/raise dry textures, attempt to represent wet boards and see what he does.
Example 3: Maniacs I tighten up on extremely. I am going to only play hands I know I can play for value as he is going to be doing all sorts of things that more marginal holdings cannot withstand.
Like I said, a the above examples are just some cases to illustrate the complexity of the question you are asking. There is no mathematical formula for what you are asking, it all depends on the player and the dyamics. If you watch some of live sweat vids you will see there are situations and players that 4betting 72o will be profitable against and others that you can safely fold JJ to. I would take some time to review some of the vids and rethink your approach for looking for this as I believe you are hunting for a unicorn.
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