Hey everyone, I just wanted to get some opinions on what the optimal move on this flop is. The villian is currently running a 48/34 over ~50 hands. I've seen him 3-bet once from the blinds so far but he didn't show down.
Full Tilt Poker No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t20.00/t40.00 Blinds – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Sergei_Kolpak (CO): t5490.00 137.25 BBs
19NNN (BTN): t2915.00 72.88 BBs
fish4nuts (SB): t2770.00 69.25 BBs
Mohnatum (BB): t5165.00 129.12 BBs
not a mubber (UTG): t1855.00 46.38 BBs
Czaxor (UTG+1): t4195.00 104.88 BBs
Hero (UTG+2): t3295.00 82.38 BBs
cluelesslucky (MP1): t2620.00 65.50 BBs
Irimba (MP2): t2720.00 68 BBs
Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is UTG+2 with A K
2 folds, Hero raises to t120, 2 folds, Sergei_Kolpak calls t120, 19NNN calls t120, 1 fold, Mohnatum raises to t455, Hero calls t335, 1 fold, 19NNN calls t335
Flop: (t1505) T A 2 (3 players)
Mohnatum bets t835.00
Villain seems super aggro but if it's only the second time he's 3bet, he most likely has a hand.
Don't mind the flat and hitting TPTK I'd just c/c. The only hands villain would 3bet here I think are 1010+, AQ+ since it's only the second time in 50 hands. He either has you crushed w 1010/AA or will shut down on the turn or double barrel bluff with JJ-KK or thin valuebet AQ(/AJ?).
Since there are already two aces out there it's highly unlikely villain has aces, if he does I don't see much chance to get away from your hand.
Villain could have 1010, but with an early open and two flatters I see a lot more value in flatting 1010 behind to setmine being so deep rather than trying to pick up a small pot preflop or isolate a player. But I don't know what kind of (thinking) player villain is or that he just always “ABC” 3bets 1010+.
There are defenitely turncards you rather wouldn't like to see like a Q, J, K, as these cards could make villain's hand improve to two pair (AQ/AJ), a set (JJ-KK) or possibly but less likely the nut straight if he was 3betting a (suited) broadway hand.
Check-raising the flop will only get action from hands that crush you and will scare away most showdown value hands like AJ/AQ. Plus there is still a player to act behind you who could've flopped top two or a set.
Being oop I don't see a possibility to 4bet without folding to a 5betjam as you will have to make your 4bet bigger than if you were ip commiting (nearly) half your stack.
So in this case, flat pre, c/c flop and reevaluate the turn to see what 19NNN does and what the turn brings and if you decide to check again or lead out.
Tough spot, very good hand to discuss.
October 6, 2010
kingbustyou, we are getting led into by the preflop 3bettor, we have position on this guy, so there is no c/c. but, i would 100% be flatting here – the only hand that will get it in with you that you beat is possibly AQ but you may as well flat and just let AQ continue firing anyway.
the pot is bloated anyway because of the multiple runners preflop, so i dont see any reason to take the lead away from villain here – if you call flop you can pretty much get it in on turn or river if you like. in fact, if villain checks turn, i would nearly check back and call any river or shove for value myself.
This is a prime opportunity to overplay your hand. You only have 1 pair and your pretty deep to start in what is now a 3bet pot. On this flop your either crushed or crushing; way ahead or way behind; >85% fav or >85% dog. No need to raise because it only serves the hands that crush you by folding out the hands you crush.
Flat and evaluate.
I think this is a good spot to 4bet pre. Would isolate the players and give you back control.
On this flop we are not beat by many hands at all. AA, AT, TT is all we are really worried about on this flop. I raise this flop and avoid drawey turn cards. If you get 4bet on the flop then I think we can lay it down sometimes but vs. the aggro player I am getting more chips in the middle on this flop!
not sure i really like 4betting PF. he's 3betting OOP into several players, so i think his range is going to be pretty strong despite his stats.
flop is a super easy call. he can be c-betting plenty of worse hands, plus if we raise we're just going to be getting him to fold a bunch and get it in against TT/AK/AQ.
July 3, 2010
So we’re calling flop and getting it in on the Turn if we flat the three bet and flat the c-bet? I guess I can see that. We can never fold once we take this line.
I think I 4 bet, though, and I make it a committing size instead of a click back cute size.
I know he’s 3 betting OOP into multiple people but we have card removal against AA and AK and our AK is suited. This pot is so juicy and we have more than enough dead money in there now to take a big flip.
And, it’s AK suited.
July 3, 2010
I still don't get why we're gonna station it up here. If it's a cooler the money goes in no matter what.
Not sure what turn card people are seriously considering fold to. If he has a set of Tens we're not folding if the Turn is a K or Q. A diamond makes it very easy for us to now get it in. And most of the time it's gonna be other cards that just don't change anything.
We’re calling to get value on turn/riv from the part of his range that would fold to our raise.
When we raise his cbet here in a 3bet pot we’re telling him he’s crushed unless he has 2 pair or better, allowing him to play perfectly against us. When we flat we could still have AJ/JJ/random floats in our range opening up the possibility of him spazzing out with a wider range on the turn.
July 3, 2010
I might be thinking about it all wrong. I don't think he'd 3 bet pre with any Ax except AK and maybe AQ.
He will 3 bet KK, QQ, maybe JJ… doubtful TT.
When this flop comes he's firing out because he 3 bet.
If he does have these type of hands he will shut down once called unless his hand improves. If we minraise or make an inducing raise on the flop he might spaz out and we get max value.
It's basically a way ahead/way behind hand and when you're way ahead you should not be getting value on future streets in this spot so why not go for it on the flop?
If we are way ahead then we don’t risk much by calling, our equity is pretty solid. If we’re way behind then raising is a disaster.
So many people flat the cbet these days he’s not always shutting down when we flat. If the turn blanks and it’s checked through we may get a street of value on the river from his KK QQ AJ AQ that should be folding to our raise on the flop.
July 3, 2010
Fair enough.
Just my opinion but what you're saying holds a lot more weight in a HU pot than this situation. If all players involved are competent the caller in this spot really should have some sort of Ax or better to flat the c-bet. Maybe I give people too much credit.
But again, not sure if raising is a disaster because are we honestly folding this hand under any circumstances? If we flat the c-bet we basically have the 2/3 the size of the pot left behind in our stack and I can't size folding a turn shove no matter what card comes under those circumstances.
So long as you are flatting with the intention of always getting it in on the Turn it seems like an ok line to take.
bennymacca said:
kingbustyou, we are getting led into by the preflop 3bettor, we have position on this guy, so there is no c/c. but, i would 100% be flatting here – the only hand that will get it in with you that you beat is possibly AQ but you may as well flat and just let AQ continue firing anyway.
the pot is bloated anyway because of the multiple runners preflop, so i dont see any reason to take the lead away from villain here – if you call flop you can pretty much get it in on turn or river if you like. in fact, if villain checks turn, i would nearly check back and call any river or shove for value myself.
My bad.
October 6, 2010
FkCoolers said:
I might be thinking about it all wrong. I don't think he'd 3 bet pre with any Ax except AK and maybe AQ.
He will 3 bet KK, QQ, maybe JJ… doubtful TT.
When this flop comes he's firing out because he 3 bet.
If he does have these type of hands he will shut down once called unless his hand improves. If we minraise or make an inducing raise on the flop he might spaz out and we get max value.
It's basically a way ahead/way behind hand and when you're way ahead you should not be getting value on future streets in this spot so why not go for it on the flop?
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
23 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1