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February 14, 2013
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Setup: 20/40 blinds. I have AsQc on the button w 10,000 chips
utg1 limps, utg 2 calls, I raise to 200, sb calls, bb calls (main villain; has 9500 chips), utg1 folds, utg 2 calls
So we’ve been playing about 15-20 hands, and the bb has played probably 70-80% of them so far. Only hand I remember seeing him take to showdown was him having like 67cc and peeling a flop bet on I think A4J w one club, ck/ck turn, and then he bluffed maybe 50-70% pot on river on say a 4 Q runout.
Flop (840): AdQd3h; they ck, I bet 465 only the bb calls
Turn (1770) Jc I bet 900, he raises to 2235, I call
River (6240) 6c He shoves for 6540 (I have 7010)
So obv this is pretty shitty on the turn w KT being very plausible, but I mean hands like QJ or even J3s wouldn’t shock me here. Its probably ambitious to think he would ever take this line w diamonds but at the same time its not impossible, and I don’t block any fd’s. Against any reasonable player I snap fold river and maybe even fold turn, but vs someone so incredibly loose can I really fold here?
June 2, 2013
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I call river too, as you said he can be on QJ or J3s kind of hands, I think there is value with top two. He can have sets too, but you block AA and QQ, and i am not sure, but he maybe 3bet this pre flop.
3bet the turn would be a huge mistake tow, call is very good, keeps all his bluffs and worst hands in.
I throw it on equity calculator, at the river, against a range of JJ,33,AJs,A3s,KTs,AJo,A3o,KTo hero have 35.29% to win. You have to call 6540 on a 19320 pot, meaning you have to win 33.85% to BE. If my math is wrong please someone say it 🙂
And he may do that with some draws too, Kxdd, T9…
February 20, 2015
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What are you targeting with that turn bet? I would check behind on the turn and reevaluate on the river. I get very frustrated when I bet the flop with what is probably the best hand, just to see a scary card on the turn. It’s hard to get 3 streets of value on most boards.
February 14, 2013
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almofadinhas said
I call river too, as you said he can be on QJ or J3s kind of hands, I think there is value with top two. He can have sets too, but you block AA and QQ, and i am not sure, but he maybe 3bet this pre flop.3bet the turn would be a huge mistake tow, call is very good, keeps all his bluffs and worst hands in.
I throw it on equity calculator, at the river, against a range of JJ,33,AJs,A3s,KTs,AJo,A3o,KTo hero have 35.29% to win. You have to call 6540 on a 19320 pot, meaning you have to win 33.85% to BE. If my math is wrong please someone say it 🙂
And he may do that with some draws too, Kxdd, T9…
Yeah this seems pretty reasonable; still not sure I want to take such a thin call and essentially get ko of the tournament 64.71% of the time, and also get pissed off for the rest of my session when he shows 33 lol, oh well.
joelshitshow said
What are you targeting with that turn bet? I would check behind on the turn and reevaluate on the river. I get very frustrated when I bet the flop with what is probably the best hand, just to see a scary card on the turn. It’s hard to get 3 streets of value on most boards.
I think this player is loose enough to bet turn vs; if this was like a tight player I could see ck behind perhaps, or maybe bet/f etc.
June 2, 2013
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jonmon101 said
Yeah this seems pretty reasonable; still not sure I want to take such a thin call and essentially get ko of the tournament 64.71% of the time, and also get pissed off for the rest of my session when he shows 33 lol, oh well.
If you really dont want to call the river bet, I think will be a mistake to call the reraise on the turn then. You have only 4 outs to improve your hand to a full house, and V will probably shove a high % of the time otr, since is close to bet pot.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I think your line is fine until the river, river call is close but I don’t think you can fold versus a known aggressive villain. I think folding turn would be awful, checking back turn is not good either but there is an argument for going smaller than 900 since you block a lot of the stronger parts of villain’s range and you might get more value with a sizing like 650-700.
Don’t really agree that it’s hard to get 3 streets on most runouts here. I think our main goal when we flop top two against a weak player like this should be to aim for three streets in a lot of spots – the fact that we block so many hands is the only thing really making life harder for us here.
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