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October 16, 2015
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Hi, I’ve been on a downswing lately and have been wondering whether this could be just variance or if I’m actually playing worse
Here is my results graph: …..yers/SubCZ
Is this still in the realm of possibility to just be unlucky? The whole graph is from this month starting december 1st
I know this would be a really small sample size for regular MTT’s but all games have been in very small fields and in very low stakes. About 80% of the graph has been 1.50$ 90 player sit & go’s, the remaining games were the 2.20$ satellites to the sunday storm (I didn’t actually play the sunday storm with the tickets I won, I just unregistered and used the tickets for the lowest field 11$ MTT that I could find which was one with 3k guaranteed and 300 players average that is running every night)
I understand that something like this could easily happen on some days but what is weird to me is that during the first 100 games that I won 100$ with I didn’t have a single losing day and suddenly my winnings went straight downwards during the next 100 games even though I feel like I played exactly the same way in exactly the same sit & go’s..
Hope someone can help, should I just keep grinding the same way and focus on making right decisions or is this too much of a downswing to just be caused by luck?
June 11, 2012
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First of all i want to clarify that i do not know much about how these 90men sngs are in terms of expected ROI and variance.
I guess ROI is pretty low in general (10%?) and variance is high i would assume.
To say something about a downswing i think the sample size is way to small.
What i would advise you is to not look at the results as you do now.
i would much rather focus your time on improving every aspect of the game. The results will follow.
One really dangerous thing that happens if you look at your results and it seems that you are on a downswing you will stop questioning your play and think “oh well i am just running bad”. been there done that. I think self consciousness is one of the attitudes most poker players lack. Too many are thinking they are above average when the truth is different. If you want to be a successful poker player you need constant improvement in every aspect of the game. also the mental part.
The second thing with looking at your results can result in avoiding high varaince +EV spot because you are money scared. This is especially true when you are on a downswing.
So keep your mind clear and clean. Work on your game and the results will follow.
and always remember. poker is a hard way to make an easy living 
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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The graph I get from clicking on that link is only 38 games…if this is the sample you’re referring to, it’s incredibly small and means almost nothing.
Regardless, I almost didn’t even click on the link, because I think you’re missing the point. You’re doing two things wrong:
a) trying to judge your level of performance from results
b) judging how you think you played by how you feel
Neither results nor your feelings are a good barometer of how you’re playing. You should be looking at your EVbb/100 number in HM2 or your All-in Adjusted BB/100 in PT4 – those are the numbers that will tell you how well you’re playing. Nothing else really matters, because if your EVbb/100 is as high as it can be, then the results will take care of themselves, and it doesn’t matter how good you feel about your game if your EVbb/100 is below zero.
It’s a cliché in poker that results don’t matter, but…they really don’t matter. Like, at all. If you have any other way of measuring performance accurately, which you do if you have EVbb/100 stats, then you should use that measurement instead.
January 5, 2015
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EVbb/100 sounds like a wonderful tool to have.
What if you are a LIVE player though? How wold you gauge it in this situation?
October 16, 2015
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Sorry, only noticed that I posted the wrong link after it was too late to edit the post, but I guess 200 games of sample size isn’t much better anyway.
My problem with the EVbb/100 is that I feel like it only really reflects your results in the early stages when you are really deep stacked. Often I just double up in the first few hands of a tournament at the beginning of my session which makes my EVbb/100 go up by like 250bb and once you get deeper in tournaments and the stacks go down to like 30bb your hands seem to have barely any impact on the EVbb/100 value even though they arguably matter more..
If I look at the graph at the end of a session with about 2k hands I can generally see that it is mostly defined by 5-10 massive pots in the first few blind levels and any remaining hands just adjust the curve very slightly up or down..
For the record, this is the graph I initially wanted to post: …..om/Y65H6xX
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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ColdZer0 said
Sorry, only noticed that I posted the wrong link after it was too late to edit the post, but I guess 200 games of sample size isn’t much better anyway.My problem with the EVbb/100 is that I feel like it only really reflects your results in the early stages when you are really deep stacked. Often I just double up in the first few hands of a tournament at the beginning of my session which makes my EVbb/100 go up by like 250bb and once you get deeper in tournaments and the stacks go down to like 30bb your hands seem to have barely any impact on the EVbb/100 value even though they arguably matter more..
If I look at the graph at the end of a session with about 2k hands I can generally see that it is mostly defined by 5-10 massive pots in the first few blind levels and any remaining hands just adjust the curve very slightly up or down..
For the record, this is the graph I initially wanted to post: …..om/Y65H6xX
If you’re looking at your EVbb/100 filtered by stack sizes, there’s no reason to think it doesn’t matter. Besides, your overall EVbb/100 being higher is a good thing, doesn’t matter where it comes from. If you’re having issues with single hands affecting the sample, then you’re just not looking at a big enough sample. Obviously over the course of one session whether you ran good or not is going to have a significant impact, but even for single-session analysis there is something to be gained.
You’re right that 200 games really isn’t much. However, it’s definitely possible you’re making some mistakes in the second part of that graph. Tough to say. Either way, you should be looking at hands you’ve played in detail to try to figure that out.
To the poster above asking about live players…well, this is one of the main reasons why being a predominantly live player is really tough. You have no idea whether you’re even a winning player or not until you’ve been playing for about 10 years. It’s incredibly tough to get any kind of a sample size. The best you can do is make extensive notes about hands you’ve played and discuss them with your most knowledgeable poker friend/post them on the forums. There’s really no way to track winrates live, and your ROI is going to be so dependent upon variance that you would need a very big sample of tournaments to have a reliable idea of it.
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