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September 29, 2012
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This was in the Carbon $300 GTD – $1.10. Last night I was in a spot where a MP player pushed 11 BBs, the next player just flatted and I had AKs with 21 BBs and didn’t think twice before getting my stack involved. After the game, I was thinking I always assumed that this was a no brainer push, but was it really, so I checked the numbers. Below you will find my analysis of the hands, whic of course shows AKs is an easy push in this spot. Can everyone just double check to see if I am missing anything in a possible range that may affect the math?
Granted, I did lose this all in and I may not have verified the all in if I had won, but this is not results oriented on my part. After the math, I am still convinced I was ok to shove here. I am just asking to clarify whether I missed something in the math.
Merge - $0+$0|<> NL - Holdem - 9 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 3 LP: 6,690.00 CO: 22,586.00 BTN: 4,430.00 Hero (SB): 8,433.00 BB: 21,923.00 UTG: 12,441.00 UTG+1: 5,954.00 MP: 4,555.00 MP+1: 12,916.00 Blinds 200/400 + 40 Pre Flop: (960.00) Hero has KA
Q
3
Hero shows K
Using Hands Shown
MP1 41.43% { 8d8s }
MP2 22.53% { AsJs }
SB 36.04% { AhKh }
MP2 29.00% { AsJs }
SB 71.00% { AhKh }
36% * 22,061 = 7,941.96
41% * 71% * 7,756 = 2,257.77
cEV = 10,199.73
Using Kill Everyone Optimal Ranges
MP1 28.52% { 33+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, ATo+, KJo+ }
MP2 32.22% { 55+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+ }
SB 39.26% { AhKh }
MP2 43.25% { 55+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+ }
SB 56.75% { AhKh }
39% * 22,061 = 8,603.79
29% * 57% * 7,756 = 1,282.07
cEV = 9,885.86
My Estimated Standard Ranges
MP1 23.13% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
MP2 38.77% { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }
SB 38.10% { AhKh }
MP2 48.23% { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }
SB 51.77% { AhKh }
38% * 22,061 = 8,383.18
23% * 52% * 7,756 = 927.62
cEV = 9,310.8
July 17, 2012
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While mathmatically, this may be a clear cEV shove, it is not a great move as far as your tournement life. Sure, if you hit this, you are in a great position. But loose and you are out. AKs is a flip at best vs. two opponents. One of them is almost certain to have a mid pp or better. – Vs. one all in, I am almost never folding AK pre … Against multiple villains? That is a different story. Read Chris Moon's articles on just this subject on the front page of the articles section.
In a cash situation, you will make money in the long run, but if you have a skill edge, you are giving it up by taking this flip. You have a decent size stack. Whether to shove or not here should be based on the game flow, the table and your skill advantage.
I'm not saying that it was absolutely wrong to shove, but I don't think it is as clear cut as the numbers indicate.
May 30, 2012
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the fact MP just called makes me think they are bad, which makes me give them a wider range, like 55+ A8s A9o KQo
September 29, 2012
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ShortStackJack said:
While mathmatically, this may be a clear cEV shove, it is not a great move as far as your tournement life. Sure, if you hit this, you are in a great position. But loose and you are out. AKs is a flip at best vs. two opponents. One of them is almost certain to have a mid pp or better. – Vs. one all in, I am almost never folding AK pre … Against multiple villains? That is a different story. Read Chris Moon’s articles on just this subject on the front page of the articles section.
In a cash situation, you will make money in the long run, but if you have a skill edge, you are giving it up by taking this flip. You have a decent size stack. Whether to shove or not here should be based on the game flow, the table and your skill advantage.
I’m not saying that it was absolutely wrong to shove, but I don’t think it is as clear cut as the numbers indicate.
I was thinking this too, but we are still a sufficient way away from the bubble, so I think cEV calculations may be the determinative analysis on the play. But I’m open to discussions to actually determine if cEV is the best analysis for this. $EV it is hard to determine. MY ROI on Carbon scheduled micro MTTs 119%, so I assume I have an edge on the field, however, being short stacked tends to minimize a players advantage over the field. There was about 180 left at this time of 331 and 36 cash. The average stack at this point would be about t9,200, so I am slightly below the average. My estimated equity may be about $1.68 at this point. So using the real hands shown down as the model 36% of the time my estimated equity becomes about $4.41, 29% of the time my estimated equity becomes about $1.56 and 35% I bust out. So $EV my equity becomes roughly $2.05 to call here. However, this model cannot take into account any estimated edge over the field or the equity lost to the rest of the field for busting other players. However, with 180 players left, I do not beleive I lose too much equity there, like you would by busting 1 of only 9 players in a SNG.
September 13, 2012
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I think by folding it is -ev. if u plug this into S&go wiz it would be a clear call. u are not near ICM at the mo so 100% call imo.
September 29, 2012
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Additionally, I would have to think that by having a 55BB stack, the largest stack at the table, and more than double the average stack during the middle stage would allow me to be able to use some of my skill advantage where it is lessened by having a shorter stack, so the estimated $4.41 equity of winning may be as high as $5.00+ when it is taken into account that my stack increases my utility.
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