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July 12, 2013
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FT of $2 cube… Had a big discussion w a buddy of mine about this hand… i'm wondering if I can get a few peoples opinions.
So as I said this is the FT, BTN calls too wide and doesn't play back very much but is sticky, BB always seems to call out of his BB when I've opened this spot.
So the table has been pretty tight… A lot of opens and all folds which is why I choose to open light.
Flop TP… Dude donks 3/4 pot into me… So I don't know what to make of this… I have a few questions and wonder about others experiences… Can he have 1010? 99? J10? Seems like a pretty big bet… My range here can be a lot stronger than his. I think his range is capped. I can still have AJ, KJ, JJ, AA, KK, QQ, 77… I'm pretty much on the exact bottom of my continuing range other than I guess I would open some J10s here as well. He isn't putting me on a range… I know that much, he's simply playing his hand strength. So would this make it a fold? At the time I just thought that he bet an amount he would be willing to fold if I shove over. Which seems like it may be a mistake considering 3/4 pot bet??? I was actually deciding if I should flat and shove the turn or shove over on the flop. When I shove over on the flop I dont know what i'm getting to fold though. I don't want 99 and 1010 to fold if those are my value targets. Can I get value from pretty much exactly J10?
Thanks in Advance… Thoughts are appreciated. 
EDIT: When thinking about this hand I didn't consider the BTN too much simply because his VPIP was so high it would be extremely unlikely he has a hand here better mine. So wasn't worried about him…
Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t30000/t60000 Blinds + t7500 – 7 players – View hand 2463085
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
vliderK (UTG+1): BB = 13.2, t789167
Hero (MP): BB = 16.1, t965316
hepenshfield (CO): BB = 69.5, t4168957
AceMedals (BTN): BB = 9.7, t584135
Flying Guy (SB): BB = 40.6, t2437369
s.boss (BB): BB = 24.0, t1441926
Old§chOoOL (UTG): BB = 14.3, t857130
Pre Flop: (t142500) Hero is MP with Q
J
2 folds, Hero raises to t129999, hepenshfield calls t129999, 1 fold, Flying Guy calls t99999, 1 fold
Flop: (t502497) 7 2 J
(3 players)
Flying Guy bets t360000 Hero (827,817 behind)????????
February 27, 2014
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It looks like 50-50 to me.
he could easily shove his chips if he does not believe you have anything and just tries to take the pot down after the flop. He might have also hands like A7s, A2s, T9, 89… He might look at the board and think it did not hit your range and he does not want you to be able to cbet and make the pot larger. He is betting over half a pot what looks pretty large and protective. Hands like 33+…TT are all in his range and he tires to prtect them.
On the other hand he might bet also with AJ, KJ, 77, 22, JJ and you would be way behind, but since you were the original raiser it looks unlikely he would bet these hands especially if cbetting has been happpening on the table. But if no cbettings has been happening he might bet also these hands.
There are not really any draws on the board so if he has an actual hand you are basically behind and if he is bluffing you are way ahead.
I think the villians bet is actually pretty good if he has the hand or if he does not.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
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With QJ I am going here. I just dont see him having many hands that beat us here outside of KJ, and maybe occasionally Aj if he plays it slowly, which seems wierd given both the stacks that are in the pot currently.
I think he is just betting becuase you both have small stacks relatively speaking and he is going with it. So his range can be any top pair and maybe even something like 88 or A7. I doubt he flats pre with any PPS better than 88(and shouldnt be doing it with that, but the way you describe he might).
So I am only afraid of KJ really. I just cant imagine opening this, hitting this hand with this much in middle and folding.
Go with it.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
July 12, 2013
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Thanks for the reply Cody. I just really wasn’t sure what players donk lead with in spots like this. Especially at FT I think he had the exact top of his range while I have the bottom of mine… Boo!
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
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If the stack dynamics were differnt I would probably agree with you. But as it is, big stack versus two short stacks, I expec him to be light her fairly often.
Congrats on the final table though. Good luck.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
July 12, 2013
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You expect him to donk worse than QJ? How often? With which hands? 88-99? I just don’t know if the donk sizing is as big as he made it. He bet really big… Considering stacks.
April 16, 2013
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His 70% pot sizing would make a lot more sense (for value) if it was J97 with a flush draw but on such a dry board, surely he would expect you to c-bet this a lot?
I find that players donk flops that look like everyone missed when they have quite a poor hand. I would be going with this hand. We can't beat many value hands but it's difficult to make hands better than QJ here and i doubt he's leading 70% pot with all his value combos when we should be folding SO often to a donk bet.
If I have more reads on the villain, this may be different but with no info, my standard is to bluff raise sometimes with overcards and backdoor equity and to call down with QJ as well as sets and overpairs.
July 12, 2013
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That’s the other question I have. Since my shove range is gonna have over pairs, KJ, AJ, all sets and probably 88-1010 as well as QJ and some combos of J10… Should I ever be folding this range to this lead? I suppose I can fold the bottom of this range to that lead… ??
April 16, 2013
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I'm likely playing AJ the same way and not folding it as I can then beat QJ and KJ as well as his bluffs. 22, 77, JJ and overpairs are certainly in your range, so your not at the top of your range with top pair but given the dyanmics of stack sizes and the fact that its a final table and such a dry board with a big bet size – I'm not folding QJ either.
I don't think he's playing his range very well at all. He's losing far too much with his bluffs. A smaller bet accomplishes the same and this sizing makes the chances of you bluff raising much less likely. If he has a set of 2s, there are very few bad turn cards where he would lose his action and most of your range is drawing dead or close to it. This is the most perfect slowplay spot for his monster hands.
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