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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Doing the Maths in a spot I think p…

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Doing the Maths in a spot I think player is going to squeeze. Induce, shove or just give up.

SKAHfish

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October 5, 2016 - 3:50 pm

To set the scean this is a Progressive KO $1 big field MTT.

CO lps 1400 with 11bb,

Hero SB with 8bb,

BB unknown with 17bb

Firstly I can isolate the CO as lp folding with a shoving stack seems to be common in these tournaments. However bb is also very likely to sqz wide for the same reasons as a lp and complete is very weak as well as having us both covered seems good sqz spot with the dead money

Should I induce here?

They are both unknowns so feel free to correct my range assumptions, but I will assign a squeeze range of

22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T8s+,A2o+,K2o+,Q7o+,J9o+ (45%)

If i iso I will assign him to call range of (30%),i.e. when I shove.

My equity against 45% range = 49.5%

Pot he squeezes = 8+1+.09= 9.9

49.5% x 10.4 = 4.9

50.5% x -8 = -4.04

Ev comp in sb then call shove = plus <1bb

Ev shove = EVf + EVcw – EVcl (against a 30% range you have 45%equ)

= .7 x 2.9 + .3x.45×9.9 – .3x.55x-8

= 2.03+1.3365-1.32= over 2bb

So shoving makes the most sense.

The only difference if you think CO is trapping sometimes you get to see if they fold then call against the squeeze range. However if you think they are only squeezing 30% or something then this becomes -EV where you could shv getting the fold equity.

Now to change parameters

If we assume CO lp is always folding and never trapping then that bb calls perfect so like 56%(Nash call) as I should be shoving 73% then he may squeeze with say 70%? Well it will not quite be nash as there is 1 extra bb so not sure how to account for this.

eq agst 56% range = 52%

eq agst 70% range = 54%

Shove EV

=.44×2.9 + .56x.52×9.9 – .56x.48x-8

=1.276+2.88-2.15 = +2.01bb

Shove induce

=.3×2.9 + .7x.54×9.9 -.7x.46x-8

=.87+3.74 – 2.576 = +2.034

So if we know bb will shove wide and not sure on if CO is trapping inducing seems best.

If bb is tight then shove likely better due to fold equity.

Whats peoples thoughts here.

Shove on a tight player induce a loose player.

Mayber shove if the have stats like 18/18/6 and lower induce on stats higher?

What about an unknown at the micros?

markvor

Home Game Champ

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October 6, 2016 - 12:35 pm

Wow great maths work here.

How close was the bubble here?

I think at micros the players mostly do not think on that level you think.

they play their cards and were flating/ folding tight, except they have a monster hand.

Sure you will find the gamblers also here who are making crazy things.

At at the end I would shove my 8 bb here in and hope for a call when I want it.

SKAHfish

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October 6, 2016 - 3:56 pm

Thanks.

I can not remember but as the blinds were 700/1400 it must have been a couple of hundred players away. It would have been about 30min after the late entry period which if available for the first 60min.

The bubble is like double your entry so not so significant as some tournies, the pay jumps are also minute. However when you final table one its nice with a more significant bubble for 9-1 with the usual 1-3 being much better.

Takes about 4hrs to final table one which is rare for me. Think even if you could play perfect it could still be hard. There are such a spread of players from complete bombs to the odd serous ammeter making a good side income, its funny to shark scope a player at $1t sometimes and see a $40k+ a year player.

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