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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Do you sniff a bluff?

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Do you sniff a bluff?

RonFezBuddy

New York City

TPE Management

Forum Posts: 2313

Member Since:
March 17, 2010

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May 31, 2010 - 11:57 pm

Isn’t he betting a K on flop? Should I pick it off?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 75 Ante (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) (t19200)

UTG+1 (t4863)

MP1 (t5950)

MP2 (t29666)

MP3 (t10659)

CO (t4830)

Button (t9902)

SB (t8731)

BB (t13558)

Hero’s M: 12.19

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8♦, 8♠

Hero bets t1355, 5 folds, Button calls t1355, 2 folds

Flop: (t4285) 4♥, K♦, 10♦ (2 players)

Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: (t4285) K♥ (2 players)

Hero checks, Button bets t3000, Hero?

JDOG1645

Guest

Guests

June 1, 2010 - 12:25 am

Whats he flatting with preflop on the button vs a UTG raise with less than 20 bigs? Whats your read on him prior to the hand? I doubt he flatted anything with a K there. I think he flats with PP up to 99. Are hands like AJs, AQs in his flatting range against your image/position? There is a great chance your ahead but he may have a ton of outs, its just tough playing this OOP. So if you play on I assume call and check/call on a total blank river?

bjizzle44

Guest

Guests

June 1, 2010 - 12:29 am

Definately a bluff. Why dont we cbet that flop. nice board to cbet especially since we showed strentgh with UTG raise. More times than not we’re taking it down there on that board. He calls we’re done in most cases. Here with the second K coiming on the turn and big turn bet Im check calling turn as well as river……

JDOG1645

Guest

Guests

June 1, 2010 - 12:32 am

I agree I think the hand is much easier to play if we bet out. What was you reasoning for the check?

RonFezBuddy

New York City

TPE Management

Forum Posts: 2313

Member Since:
March 17, 2010

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June 1, 2010 - 12:34 am

yeah you guys are right i should be c-betting…quite honestly i dont remember why i didn’t

plessis204

Guest

Guests

June 1, 2010 - 2:59 am

i find this to be a gameflow/reads thing more than anything, but I think that since we didn’t bet the flop that we may as well fold vs. most villains. He jams like alll rivers if we flat, and we’re just bluffing if we jam now or on the river(I guess he can have FD’s, but he’s prob not bet/folding those and he probably has really good equity considering likely overcards in his flatting range that make up those flush draws) . Like I don’t even think you get a T to fold, and I see no reason why he wouldn’t bet this turn with one. Idk, seems pretty marginal to me sticking chips in now as played.

and you probably didn’t cbet because he flatted with 14bbs behind imo.

Metasploit

St. John's, NL, Canada

Balla

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Forum Posts: 398

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May 26, 2010

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June 1, 2010 - 9:00 am

I agree also. C-betting here is prob best. If the stacks were alot deeper check / calling the turn and also on the river if a total blank hits is a nice line. Because of that turn bet hes not folding so gld imo.

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