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Difficult call
Kourou
Grinding Micros
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April 16, 2016 - 1:06 pm
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I thought it would be +EV to call since he would check shove with many draws but i am not sure.What do you think?

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
8 Players
$1.50+$0.15
Blinds 100/200 8
UTG giacobbo88 9,965
UTG+1 jaykay3737 9,790
MP1 Farpa 12,220
MP2 x_Basket21_x 19,985
CO Hero 18,269
D zah.free 7,979
SB daku da daka 7,945
BB esteraPL 7,575
Preflop
8 460 Hero is CO 7 7
3 folds, x_Basket21_x raises to 400, Hero calls 400, 1 fold, daku da daka calls 300, 1 fold
Flop
3 1,560 4 9 6
daku da daka checks, x_Basket21_x checks, Hero bets 744, daku da daka goes all-in 7,525, x_Basket21_x folds, Hero calls 6,781
 
 
joelshitshow
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April 16, 2016 - 3:43 pm
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That’s a pretty big check-shove. Stack-to-pot ratio is over 3. I would infer that he’s scared. His range has a lot of two-pair and sets that could get drawn out on, and maybe he’s trying to “take it down now” instead of playing his hand properly. Did you have any reads on him?

almofadinhas
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April 16, 2016 - 4:18 pm
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I don´t think that is a good call, you have second pair, you block some str8s and flush with 7d but that is almost a 40bb reraise

MovieFX
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Balla
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April 16, 2016 - 11:55 pm
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I agree. This flop smashes the BB’s range way more than ours. If V has 2 pair or a set and thinks we have an overpair he may be shoving for value. Alternatively, V may think this is a c-bet with air and doesn’t expect a call, but probably does have a piece and perhaps a combo draw which could put him ahead of just about all of our range. 

I don’t have very many 4-to-5-times-pot check-shoves in my game so I always struggle to understand the reasoning. I think a big c/r achieves the same thing, but at these stakes I see it a lot. I guess since we cover him he may think it looks weak and more likely to get a call? The other way around I think it may have more pressure than nuts in it?

I don’t know how informative this is, but I entered our likely range from V’s point of view against what I think V might shove with:

H: 38%: 55-TT, AJ, AQ, KQ, QJ, JT, 9T
V: 62%: 4d5d, 5d6h, 57, 8d9h, 9hTd, 9dTd, 4d6h, 5d7*, 5d8d, 44, 99, 66, TT, Ad*d

V’s range above against our exact hand gives V 60% equity. Removing the sets drops this to 52%. Removing TT drops this to 43% (interesting).

…I didn’t spend a ton of time on these ranges, so take it FWIW.

BalletBoi
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April 18, 2016 - 12:17 am
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I think a fold is fine. It looks like BB is shoving for value (protecting from draws), and for a check-shove that’s THAT big, I don’t think it’s any consideration to fold when your pocket pair isn’t anymore an overpair, even with the draws. Sure, it’s possible that he could have SOME draws, but even if he did, when you’d call with 7’s, it’d probably be about 50-50 equity. Is it really worth it to take that gamble when you have more than enough big blinds still at around 35 to 40? Just fold and wait for a better spot. If you have a sufficient skill set, you already have an edge over the field. No need to try to get ahead with 40bb flips.

MovieFX
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April 18, 2016 - 1:07 pm
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Correction to my reply: You hold blockers to some of V’s combo draws. so this is even more likely to be a scared top-pair, weak over-pair, or two-pair hand, played badly…when it isn’t it could be an over-excited reaction to a nibble and he yanks way too hard on the fishing line. (To be clear I am not calling anyone a fish. I just can’t think of a better visual analogy.) Anyway, revisiting what draws V could have, this reduces the best draw to something like AdJd+, which has a lot of equity against our hand still (we are actually behind):

Hand Equity Wins Ties
7heart7diamond 48.79% 483 0
AdiamondJdiamond+ 51.21% 507 0

8diamondTdiamond actually has 55% but isn’t as likely from EP IMO..
Adiamond4diamond has just under 50% but, again, I think less likely from EP

I think the real problem with calling here is 77 doesn’t have much chance of improving to a better hand when it is behind. Considering the increased probability that V is not on big draw, this doesn’t look like a good spot to me.

 

By the way, after thinking about it more it occurred to me that I have actually over-shoved two-pair in a multi-way pot on a wet board, but it was early in a progressive KO tourney and the table was wild. I got called too (don’t recall details but I remember winning, FWIW).

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