I’m curious what others think of V’s call PF.

On the flop, what are you trying to accomplish with your bet sizing? What hands do you want to call?

On the turn, I’m wondering what hands are left in V’s range that fold and what your shove is designed to accomplish? The line PF and flop looks like you are trying to get it all in by the turn. When V calls the flop and this turn hits, I’d be worried about executing on that plan.

It seems to me that a lot of the hands that call the flop are the same hands that get there on the turn, if not already there. I think the only hands that call PF and then call both the large-ish flop bet and turn shove, that we are also ahead of, is maybe exactly 99x?  With the pre-flop action I’d want to exclude most obvious naked A hands like: A7x/2x/5x. Perhaps some AKx/Qx float the flop and gamble the turn, but not many.

These are all genuine questions. I’m not trying to imply any sort of lesson. I find this situation really interesting. Perhaps a shove to end the hand is a good idea and I place too much fear in flush possibilities (note V didn’t have spades). I wouldn’t have too many hands in V’s range that hit the flop except maybe lower pairs and those are likely to check-raise such a wet board. I think I have to slow down on the turn though. I don’t mind since I probably balance by checking some made flushes where I don’t think I can get 3-streets of value. Also, if I am V, I probably discount made-flushes from your range. This could be a pretty sweet thinking-out-of-the-box-move if you DO have a flush and V is likely to shut down regardless of a bet, as a possible (highly-situational) alternative to a check-turn-bet-river line. 

I look forward to reading others opinions. 

This might have been a good hand to omit the results after your shove?

kid_fro21 said
Hey guys,

Interesting spot. Sorry I am fairly new to this but do we ever go for a check raise on flop? Checking to enduce any bluffs from V’s range still picking up a decent pot. Secondly not putting ourselves in difficult positions on the turn as there are a few scary looking turn cards that will slow us down and put us in the same position as we are now? 

If it checks through we would assume this turn is relatively safe as V would bet most of his draws? And would be getting calls off the same one spade hands as mentioned above so we can re-evaluate river. 

Is this a really bad play for a reason that I haven’t made myself aware of before? 

My first thought is there isn’t much reason to get tricky and “lose control” of the hand. We can bet when we are usually ahead and reassess the turn. 

Here are some thoughts for discussion that come to mind for me:

1. What range of hands would we be check-raising in this spot? I’m not sure how to approach range construction here. Are we doing this with some big draws + over-pairs since they could be considered fragile but never sets as they are already very strong and can outdraw any of V’s draws?

2. How much would we likely need to re-raise and how does that look in terms of the stack we leave behind? Say V raises the same amount, ~5300 and we have ~23000 behind. Can we raise without going all-in? What is our plan if we re-raise but not all-in and V shoves? Aren’t we effectively committed at this point Here are some equity sims against some strong draws:

Even if we add the Ts to our hand and reduce V to a likely top-pair with flush draw type hand we still aren’t that far ahead:

Drop that down to make it a combo gut-shot draw + flush draw + TP and they are ahead again:

I just want to point out my last post was full of questions or discussion points and was not meant to imply any sort of conclusion. I’m curious to hear how others may interpret the data and alternate line. Even if my first reaction is “I wouldn’t do it”, I’m trying to explore why that is and see if I’m missing an opportunity to think differently.