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September 14, 2014
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#Game No : 760347214
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 760347214 *****
$75/$150 Blinds No Limit Holdem – ***
Tournament #76880095 $4.50 + $0.50 – Table #13 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: avtol ( $1,835 )
Seat 2: Sezarr ( $4,620 )
Seat 3: Belochnik21 ( $8,573 )
Seat 4: GoldBerg25 ( $5,080 )
Seat 5: gelex ( $4,820 )
Seat 6: ykpoker92 ( $7,800 )
Seat 7: evaaaron87 ( $4,893 )
Seat 9: london_ace ( $6,604 )
Seat 10: Edusib1156 ( $5,775 )
Edusib1156 posts ante [$20]
ykpoker92 posts ante [$20]
GoldBerg25 posts ante [$20]
london_ace posts ante [$20]
avtol posts ante [$20]
Sezarr posts ante [$20]
Belochnik21 posts ante [$20]
evaaaron87 posts ante [$20]
gelex posts ante [$20]
gelex posts small blind [$75]
ykpoker92 posts big blind [$150]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ K
, K
]
evaaaron87 folds
london_ace raises [$300]
Edusib1156 folds
avtol folds
Sezarr calls [$300]
Belochnik21 folds
GoldBerg25 folds
gelex calls [$225]
ykpoker92 folds
** Dealing flop ** [ 4
, 3, 8 ]
gelex bets [$615]
london_ace calls [$615]
Sezarr folds
** Dealing turn ** [ 7 ]
gelex bets [$1,845]
london_ace folds
** Summary **
gelex did not show his hand
gelex collected [ $2,460 ]
hey
no reads
i was thinking that raising flop is what we should be doing here and call if v shove? i’m not to sure if v is leading here with draws or maybe with some 8x or pocket pairs like 99/TT. as for turn when when v bets again , it seems as they had monsters in their range, flushes. They may also be semi bluffing with As2/As5 or betting with 99/TT which i really think most opponents will check ott as its rather marginal and 8x i’d assume v should be checking ott as thats a marginal hand as well.
thoughts?
cheers.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Looks fine to me. Flop probably close between raising and calling. I feel like the reason you’re questioning this is that you ended up folding the turn and realize V could have some bluffs in his range. I would look at this instead as an opportunity to make a good fold on the turn. In other words, if you knew that this were going to be the turn card, you wouldn’t want to get it in on the flop, even though you’d sometimes win the pot and V’s range might even include some hands you’d still be beating on this turn. So don’t worry about the fact that he gets a few profitable bluffs on this turn, that’s better for you than having your whole stack in there when this card turns.
June 3, 2015
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hey buddy, i think its ok too, you want to keep the bluffs in . Good fold .
The only thing i do different is make the original raise anything between 350-375 when utg /utg+1
June 11, 2012
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i think flop is a clear call in this particular mtt vs the standard low stakes 888 player who are bet/calling a lot of worse hands here
vs a tougher opponent i am leaning towards folding. On such a low board we are pretty capped at mainly overpairs as made hands. and a good opponent knows that so he can apply a lot of pressure on us on certain run outs. like this one
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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florianm1 said
vs a tougher opponent i am leaning towards folding. On such a low board we are pretty capped at mainly overpairs as made hands. and a good opponent knows that so he can apply a lot of pressure on us on certain run outs. like this one
So what’s your continuing range to the flop bet? 9 combos of sets and 3-4 nut flush draws?
April 30, 2015
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I don’t understand why this is a fold on the turn against a regular opponent. Villain is barreling consistently. We are ahead of all 1-pair hands and flush draws on the turn, and we have outs against a 2-pair. If I were the villain, I am not betting this big with a flush on the turn. If I have the nut flush, I am not betting 2/3 pot to scare you off. If I have an inferior flush, I may bet big sometimes.. 65s is a possibility, but will the villain play it from the SB relatively early in the tournament (75-150 blinds)?? May be I am missing some piece, but this hand feels like call-call-call for me, unless a 4th spade shows up on the river.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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navinbits said
I don’t understand why this is a fold on the turn against a regular opponent. Villain is barreling consistently. We are ahead of all 1-pair hands and flush draws on the turn, and we have outs against a 2-pair. If I were the villain, I am not betting this big with a flush on the turn. If I have the nut flush, I am not betting 2/3 pot to scare you off. If I have an inferior flush, I may bet big sometimes.. 65s is a possibility, but will the villain play it from the SB relatively early in the tournament (75-150 blinds)?? May be I am missing some piece, but this hand feels like call-call-call for me, unless a 4th spade shows up on the river.
You assume 2/3 pot would scare someone off, yet are ready to call it yourself with one pair and no draw. Your objective with big hands should be to build big pots, not to get called at all costs. And it’s very dangerous to assume that your opponent will be weaker when he bets big than when he bets small. I mean, if you have that read on a specific player, by all means use it, but I don’t think it makes sense as a default assumption.
I also don’t understand what “relatively early in the tournament” has to do with Villain playing 65s. If anything, it’s a hand that plays better with deeper stacks.
If you don’t think V will show up with 65s, what are the one pair hands you expect him to bet here? There aren’t even that many hands for him to be bluffing. I mean, to show up a bare flush draw, he would have needed to bet As Jc or something on the flop.
It’s enough to identify a few scenarios where you mgiht still have the best hand and use that to justify calling. When a big chunk of V’s range has you drawing dead (all straights/flushes, and virtually dead against sets), you have to be able to beat more than the occasional bluff to make calling profitable, especially with more money to be bet.
April 30, 2015
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Andrew,
My 1 pair here is not 82o, so, I am more confident of my 1-pair. I can easily see the villain playing many 8s like this.. A8, 98, T8 or even 87 if I put him on a tighter range and as a reasonably good player. My point about “early stages” is that a majority of people don’t start playing their full range right from hand one. I have seen so many cases where people take time to read the table before being comfortable loosening up to play more hands against specific opponents. In fact, I think that is the right way to go, instead of starting off too wide. You will also get more folds when you open on the button with J4o if your VPIP is 12% rather than 25%.
I totally expect the villain to bet with any 8. He could even have over pairs in his range and could respect an EP raiser by flatting 99-JJ. I would assume we can see a 3-bet with QQ+. He’s getting 2.5-3:1 on flatting with any hand in the SB and 65s is definitely in his range. Just because villain’s range contains straights (4 combos of 65s), some 2-pairs (3 combos of 87s) and many combos of flushes(9 combos of Ax, 3-4 Kx including K9 which is wide enough, QJ, QT, JT and lower to a total of 17-18 flush combos) doesn’t mean he has you beat all the time. There are 12 combos each of A8, 98, T8, and if I want to weigh more towards suited, I can even halve the number and say there are 18 combos of top pair that he could have. I am also assuming I am not donk-leading a set on the flop so that I keep hands like AK, AQ from villain interested. So, no. of set combos is also less. This makes it at least a 50-50 that we are ahead on the turn if not better, since I have not included even one bluff/semi-bluff in the range that we have him beat.
I am speaking here on personal experience as well where I can remember more than a handful of times where I have triple-barreled with TPTK on a 10 high board just to see my opponent hold an overpair. I just shrug and move on thinking at what point could I have put him on such a hand.
June 11, 2012
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Foucault said
florianm1 said
vs a tougher opponent i am leaning towards folding. On such a low board we are pretty capped at mainly overpairs as made hands. and a good opponent knows that so he can apply a lot of pressure on us on certain run outs. like this oneSo what’s your continuing range to the flop bet? 9 combos of sets and 3-4 nut flush draws?
well, i think we are calling a lot of overpairs especially containing. With a reasonable tight (15.5%) EP opening range we maybe have to accept the fact that we are not hitting 8high boards. this might lead to the fact that we are overfolding
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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navin,
You’re losing to 87. If you assume that V will play lots of 8s this way and will rarely play a set this way, then I agree that it’s a call.
florian,
It seems like will have no folding range on this turn card then? If Villain is either trying for a cheap bluff and/or probe/blocking bet on the flop, you are missing out on opportunities to profit from those. Then again, if he isn’t doing those things, then you are exploiting him. So, up to you to decide how confident you are in that assumption.
June 11, 2012
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Foucault said
florian,It seems like will have no folding range on this turn card then? If Villain is either trying for a cheap bluff and/or probe/blocking bet on the flop, you are missing out on opportunities to profit from those. Then again, if he isn’t doing those things, then you are exploiting him. So, up to you to decide how confident you are in that assumption.
i will run this in pio and see what the outcome is. def an interesting spot.
cheers
September 14, 2014
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very good responses by everyone , thank you.
the thing is if we knew v range consists mainly of flush draws , then our hand is in better shape and we should be prepared to get our stack in because more often then not our hand will win andrew? V range wont only consist of a flush draws though, there’s 8x in their range when they bet flop and 44/33/88. Ott their range seems very strong imo, You also have to remember that this is a mutli way pot which majority of opponents play straight forwardly!
December 30, 2015
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Great thread! There are aspects to each street that conflict with each other in my mind. I’m basing a lot of this on the players I run in to at this level and stage of a tournament.
On the flop V leads out into a multi-way pot where V just calls pre-flop. This reeks of a top-pair hand up to maybe TT to me, or maybe 66, 77 from some players. The kind of hand that doesn’t want to see an over-card or draw. If he was drawing or stronger I think we see a c/c or c/r a lot of the time. Heads-up I might open this up more, but multi-way I agree people tend to play more straightforward. I guess two-pair or a set could see a lead-out if the player is protection-oriented. The bet size is throwing me a little. I might be overthinking it, but I would expect a slightly larger bet of 65-90% of the pot from someone motivated by fear.
I think I ~2.5x raise here and probably call a shove. I’ve just seen so many A8, 99-TT or combo draws shoving at this level/stage. Maybe something like this (even with sets it is 65%/35%, but I have a hard time seeing someone leading out small with a set when they weren’t the initial raiser pre-flop):
Board: 4s 3s 8c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hero: 74.087% 74.09% 00.00% 42541 0.00 { KdKh }
V: 25.913% 25.91% 00.00% 14879 0.00 { TT-99, A8s, A5s, A2s, T8s, 98s, 87s, 65s, 52s, A8o, 98o }
I can see how this might make the turn awkward if V just flats a c/r. Now the pot is inflated and he likely doesn’t put ME on a draw. I think this adds more float-bluffs if V is capable, but that is a lot of credit. I probably balance by having the combo draw here sometimes though.
None of my protection-driven thinking makes sense on the turn. That bet…it makes me think the flop bet was a strong combo-draw to maybe disguise the draw and block a larger c-bet? It seems very polarizing. All the flush ranges above got there. I think I fold on the turn too. Considering you just call and the flush card hits, and V still bets…that seems stronger than if V flatted a c/r on the flop and then continued. Does that make sense?
Poking-of-holes is more than welcome. I’m still just trying to learn how to run better on the forums here as a new guy.
June 11, 2012
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i am currently running this in pio.
here is the tree:
i wont comment too much on ranges. Open range i assumed something around 15.5% which should be close to optimal tbh
i also dont have villain overcalling AA,KK. Dont think a villain in a random 4$ MTT on 888 is doing that. His calling rage preflop is around 61%.
i ll leave the option for villain to lead or check flop as a starting point
so running the tree first there is actually this happening:
OOP_flop OOP should not have any betting for this sizing here. so i run the tree with forching OOP to bet.
so the flop strategy for hero:
with our actual holding its a 50:50 call. there are some KK combos we raise close to 90%. But i am not gonna reveal here which once 😛
turn intrestingly villian should check his entire range. but he bet so we call with 40% of our range including our holding.
so there is some food for thoughts 😀
June 11, 2012
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meh and because i have the tools:
and turn again assuming he bets >TP and FD+ and we are calling on any river:
raising flop vs gii ranged assigned actually is +12.2EV comapred to call +6.
obv it all depends on villians gii range.
so i come to the conclusion i would raise gii flop
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Thanks for putting in this work, Florian. But are you saying you have SB calling 61% of hands pre-flop? That seems way too wide to me.
June 11, 2012
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yeah in the pio i gave it that range. with low weights on some hands.
I think villain should be calling this wide given the great prize. Especially with a lot o suited stuff. Maybe in practice it looks different.
Let me know what you think is a more reasonable range and i can do it again quickly.
September 14, 2014
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nice work florian. so if v were calling this wide pre it would be profitable to raise/call a shove otf? i personally dont think v will be calling this wide pre though , stacks are not very deep, so i dont think v will be playing to many of those suited hands. i Know they’re are getting good odds pre , but they are just not hitting their flush/straight draw that often , they’ll also be OOP which makes it even more difficult for them to play post.
@movieFx , good feedback from you , thank you 🙂
what i dont understand is when you said that if hero were going to c-r flop and v were to call and the turn completes a flush that hero is unlikely to have flushes in their range? i reckon hero may possibly have flushes in their range if they c/r flop 🙂
you also said how you think v line seems stronger when they lead out otf and bet turn in comparison to if v flatted a c/r and continued. i find this interesting, i mean if v flatted a c/r and continued they’ve really gotta have a strong hand here more often then not because hero could be c/r flush draws on the flop which go there ott. So i dont think v will be bluffing very often ott give the range of hands which they may call a c/r with otf or hands which that may lead with otf could have also improved their range ott.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Aaaah! I responded to this earlier today, but it doesn’t seem to have posted. Anyway, the range I came up with for Villain was about 25%, most pocket pairs and broadways (less the ones he’s three-betting) suited connectors all the way down most two-gappers, and a few connected offsuit hands like T9o. That seemed really wide to me and only came to 25%.
June 11, 2012
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Foucault said
Aaaah! I responded to this earlier today, but it doesn’t seem to have posted. Anyway, the range I came up with for Villain was about 25%, most pocket pairs and broadways (less the ones he’s three-betting) suited connectors all the way down most two-gappers, and a few connected offsuit hands like T9o. That seemed really wide to me and only came to 25%.
you did just in the wrong thread. in the cash game hand.
i looked at that post yesterday like five times and it did not make sense comparing that to the hand there. so i figured it was posted in the wrong place.
i copy your answer:
A 25% range already seems pretty stationy to me. You realize V is SB, not BB, right? I’d try {TT-22, AQs-A2s, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo}. I think the best of those hands should be 3-bets and the worst folds, but strikes me as a reasonable range for a loose passive.
TBH i did not realize that villain is SB. i ll have a look at it again in pio
September 14, 2014
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are we assuming that v is loose passive because they flat called from the sb? i doubt v is calling @25% from the sb. I’d say that their range is so much wider for calling if they were to be in the bb.
December 30, 2015
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folding_aces_pre_yo said
…
@movieFx , good feedback from you , thank you 🙂what i dont understand is when you said that if hero were going to c-r flop and v were to call and the turn completes a flush that hero is unlikely to have flushes in their range? i reckon hero may possibly have flushes in their range if they c/r flop 🙂
I’m glad my shotgun spray of thoughts had some value!
I think if Hero check-raises the flop as a semi-bluff it is by far the more rare move, don’t you think? Usually you see people trying to take a card cheap (c/c, looks like a draw) or betting (looks like a made hand or can be a semi bluff/blocker). So a c/r semi-bluff is more extreme. I’m not saying never. It can be an interesting line to take the lead, but more at risk / high variance? I think the fact (in my mind) that it is more rare for a draw to c/r that it just disguises a draw that much more.
you also said how you think v line seems stronger when they lead out otf and bet turn in comparison to if v flatted a c/r and continued. i find this interesting, i mean if v flatted a c/r and continued they’ve really gotta have a strong hand here more often then not because hero could be c/r flush draws on the flop which go there ott. So i dont think v will be bluffing very often ott give the range of hands which they may call a c/r with otf or hands which that may lead with otf could have also improved their range ott.
….talking about this quote from me:
…Considering you just call and the flush card hits, and V still bets…that seems stronger than if V flatted a c/r on the flop and then continued. Does that make sense?
Uhg, I was piecing together a few thoughts and confused the point I think. What I meant was…
1. …that your line looks very much like a draw. You just c/c and then turn a flush card. The fact that V still leads out just says to me that V isn’t worried about that turn card. I guess V could be “betting for information” or “betting the scare card”, but if we think V is a casual ABC player then a third flush card is the most scary of cards in my experience.
2. …if Hero c/r the flop I think V has more trouble putting hero on a flush draw (for the point mentioned above this quote), so may be more inclined to get tricky or ignore the turned flush card.
I can’t help but project some of myself on to these actions, so please do throw some assumptions back at me. It will help me get in to the shoes of others.
September 14, 2014
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I never did c/c flop though , v lead out otf hero just calls. As for c/r i’d much prefer it if i were first to act in this hand , I’m 2nd to act here and there’s 1 player left to act so there’s less chance of hero pulling off a c/r, if that makes sense?
If hero were first to act in this hand i’d opt for a c/r and i would balance this with my monster range like 33/44/88. I don’t think its rare to c/r as semi bluff, nor do i think its high variance. With anything in poker we have to look for ev+ spots , if we think we have fold equity c/r flop is great for us. If we were to c/r with say AK: on this flop and v calls on the flop we could put v in a tough spot on the turn by shoving. I mean if v were to call a flop c/r they’ve likely got marginal hands in their range like 8x or small to medium pocket pair. If they had a strong hand they’ll likely get it in on the flop, dont you think? If the turn was say a complete blank like T i’m not to sure if v will fold 8x , i reckon v will very likely would fold a hand like 55/66 and we still have decent equity EVEN if we are called when we shove turn!
may i also add that if hero were to c/r flop and the spade did hit when we hold KK, both of our ranges could have improve ott, you can’t discount flushes from hero range. i think if v had a draw on the flop in this spot they’ll likely shove over hero c/r. v started this hand with just over 30bb and has like less then 25bb behind once they bet flop, so when we c/r it’s pretty hard for them to just call with their draw imo and if they do call the flop c/r and we shove the turn with AKss we would have other flush draws crushed , though having the A would reduce the chances of v having a flush draw in their range, also In this spot check shoving flop would not be bad either as a semi bluff.
I’m not to sure which hands i’m c/c here..
anyhow hope this helps 🙂
December 30, 2015
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Thanks for sharing. Lots to think through. Cool stuff.
September 14, 2014
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You’re welcome sir. 😉
June 11, 2012
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i did the analysis with the updated ranges. Strategy stays fairly same. EV changes a bit. but still c/r is better than c/c
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