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Deuces
Ronads2021
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August 9, 2011 - 10:41 pm
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Poker Stars $5.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1000/t2000 Blinds + t200 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

kenlf1966 (UTG): BB = 30.2, t60455
beli77755 (UTG+1): BB = 17.7, t35402
randysignguy (MP1): BB = 40.9, t81727
**** Mexico (MP2): BB = 14.9, t29713
Hero (CO): BB = 16.1, t32240
santiago1951 (BTN): BB = 40.7, t81354
MITCH722000 (SB): BB = 12.3, t24552
Alexkaponi (BB): BB = 78.5, t157040

Pre Flop: (t4600) Hero is CO with 2 of clubs 2 of hearts
2 folds, randysignguy raises to t4000, **** Mexico calls t4000, Hero …

 

randysignguy just arrived at the table, **** Mexico has played fairly tight.

 

Is this a 3 bet shove or a fold??  

cousteer
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August 9, 2011 - 11:54 pm
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Personally I'm interested in what the pros have to say about this scenario as like Ron I struggle in this position and feel it is a major shortcoming in my game

My general inclination is to turf anything <55 if I'm in mid-to-late position if there is action in front of me.  I'd probably only jam small pairs if action folds to me and I have <12BB.  My gut tells me, however, that this is way too nitty.

I'd be concerned about 'shoving-size' stack of the SB and the 'monster stack' defending the BB.

Wouldn't flatting in this situation to set mine and folding to a shove by the blinds be the most appropriate line here?

Ronads2021
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August 10, 2011 - 5:59 am
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Thanks for the reply couster. 

 

I think set mining with 16 bbs is bad play however.

 

When the hand occured I thought to myself if I had 55+ plus I'd be shoving without hesitation as there's almost 15,000 in the pot preflop and no-one seems that strong.

 

So I thought 22 is no different from 33-55 in this spot, as I think 66+, AJ+, KQ?? is probably the calling range of most winning players, therefore it's a squeeze? (I maybe wrong here). 

 

I don't know how the stacks of the blinds effect this situation either, but if I shove the big stacks have to be concerned about the inital raiser too with reduces their flatting range with marginal pairs that dominate my hand…???

 

Advice would be v helpful as I'm still not sure if this is bad play or not… 

 

 

swet1
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August 10, 2011 - 10:41 am
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The flat by a tight player with 15bb would make it a fold for me. You said Mexico has been tight, has he been agg pf or is calling raises his normal play? The flat seems strong to me if he is usually raising/3-betting when entering pots.

With 16bb I want to find an better spot where I can get allin HU and not potentially in a multi-way allin…esp with a small pair.

hawkeyeK9
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August 10, 2011 - 1:10 pm
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Definite fold here. You wanna 3bet shove when you have FE and with the open and a flat by two villians in middle position, I dont think your 16bb's behind is enough to make them both fold unless you think they could be super light which does not sound like the case here. I would be looking to open/jam that stack from late position and 3bet jam it if I think it is a great spot.

Cougars4444
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August 10, 2011 - 3:41 pm
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I think both swet and hawkeye are spot on here.  The flat by a tight player with that stack makes it a insta fold for me.  We can't setmine with our stack for sure.  I don't think you have enough FE to get this 3b jam through and when we are called we are crushed by every single pair possible.

Ronads2021
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August 10, 2011 - 7:43 pm
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Thanks for replies guys.

 

@ Swet – Mexico has been quite passive tight one or two three bets over 2 hours at the table together, I havn't set up HM and a HUD yet, so no numbers. 

 

Results were: I shoved… SB Called with 55 (horrible), Initial Raiser called with AT(horrible)  and Mexico had Aces (Standard) Oooops). 

 

One question I have that came out of this hand was, with a similar stack size in this spot what is the range for squeezing?? 77+ AQ+ ?? 

 

Thanks Again. 

 

 

 

 

swet1
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August 10, 2011 - 8:15 pm
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I think its your stack size that eliminates a possible squeeze play where you are looking to get the other players to fold…you don't have the fold equity. I feel you need 30+bb effective to attempt a squeeze in general.

 If you are looking to shove over in hopes of being called and doubling up then your range posted above (77+ AQ+) should do well against the calling range of a random player.

cousteer
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August 11, 2011 - 2:28 am
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OK I want to seek some clarity… as clearly my level of thinking is way off..

 

in this case why wouldn't we consider set mining?

The reason I suggested it was that the MP1 minraise and MP2 flat suggests that at least one of them has a decent hand, particularly Mexico as he's played tight so far.

Calling the min-raise in the CO with 16BB, represents 12.5% of our stack.  Our stack is at least 8x the size of the call, and  MP1 has >8x the amount of the raise, and MP2 ~7.5x, providing the blinds don't raise aren't the setmining implied odds in our favour? Or am I way-off?

Also we have no FE to participate in this hand any other way, but there may already be enough action to at least prevent the blinds from raising.

Clearly if they raise, we fold and are left with ~14BB and still don't have any fold equity… and will still be playing Jam/Fold poker.

If we do flop a set (1:7.5 odds) then it would put us in great shape to TID.

 

The situation would obviously be better if we were in a later position. Is the bubble close? This may also factor in, although we should always be going for the win rather than the min-cash right?

 

what am i missing here?

Ronads2021
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August 11, 2011 - 6:45 am
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The bubble burst a long while ago, it's the $5 rebuy with about 100 players remaining. 

 

Here's how I justify the set mining as a fold here… however my reasoning may be slightly off…

 

Our stack to start the hand is 32,000. It costs us 4,000 to flat call at odds of 7.5 to 1 to flop a set. 

 

To break even here we need to a return of 7.5*4000 = 30,000 when we flop a set. We therefore effectively need to double through every time we flop a set which won't happen although in this situation will be quite regular with such a large pot preflop if we see all 7.5 flops with small pairs, i.e. assuming we are never squeezed from behind and forced to fold. Also add into this the rare times we flop the underset.

 

I like this as a rule of thumb… take the amount u need to call (4,000) * 15 this 60,000 should be the minimum effective stacks you and one of your opponents need for you to call, to be maybe slightly adjusted if there is more than one opponenet, but this stack size puts us in the realm of being able to squeeze ourselves with FE.

 

 

Would be interested to hear if people agree with this…

 

 

 

ttwist

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August 11, 2011 - 9:43 pm
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im folding alot better than deuces in this spot, the flat by mexico is ultra scary and if you do get called its lights out for ya as ur ahead of nothing

rivermen123
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August 12, 2011 - 4:04 pm
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Easy fold imo.

FkCoolers
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August 12, 2011 - 5:56 pm
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Very easy fold with 22. You're getting called by someone almost every time and you dominate no one. 

I'd rather jam over a single open or open jam in certain spots to chip back up. 

rivermen123
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August 12, 2011 - 6:09 pm
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The guys screen name is seriously F–k Mexico?  That's like ape_shit on Bodog…sites filter chat and forget to filter names…lol.

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