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Defending a 3 bet shove; with some dead money too.
3for3
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February 25, 2020 - 11:32 am
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I had a spot in a $400 Wynn on Sunday.  I went through the math, so I thought I’d share the results here:

 

I raise A8s to 2300 at 1KBB.  Two callers from players who are never trapping (let’s assume I am right about this for the math, but pretty sure they were never flatting big hands.)

 
Folds to BB who jams for 14,500.  I have about 45K, so this will not threaten my stack.  Should I reshove?
 
Let’s do the math.  It will cost me 12,200 to win a pot of 35,100.  In order to be even Cev, I need to win 35.6%.  
 
Villain had been pushing a little aggressively, but I am going to look at a bunch of scenarios:
 
1. Super tight nit.  QQ+, AK.  I win 28.8%
2. Ordinary nit.  TT+, AQ+ I win 30.1%
3. Middle of the road.  AJs, 88+, AQ+ 30.4%
4. Modestly agg.  66+, A8s, AJo, KJs+ 35.5%.  
5. Very Agg 22+ Axs, KQ, AJ, KJs 42.2%
 
The first 3 are obviously terrible.  Cev loser, and worse when we look at $ev.  I knew for sure, he’d be at least category 3.  The big jump in equity comes in between 3/4.  When we start picking hands that we are ahead of, (KJs) and  some of the pairs that are flips, we gain enough equity to at least make the play even Cev.  Against a very aggressive player, which I thought this might be, this is clearly a good play. 
 
Some other factors.  This was during reentry, and Villain had already rebought once.  The table was ok, I only thought there was one player who was better than I; and I wasn’t even sure about that.  That should lean me towards folding, since I can ‘find better’ often enough to avoid marginal spots.  From a chip utility argument, this play, when it fails drops me to around 30BB, which isn’t the greatest spot in the world; going from 45BB to 70BB is nice, but nearly as valuable as the chips I lost.
 
BTW, I am not sure which hands get added when; so these ranges may not be entirely consistent with any Villain’s actual shoving range.
MovieFX
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February 29, 2020 - 10:10 pm
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What position are you in? I think that greatly affects villain’s range. If you are on the button he should probably be shoving almost any Ax, a lot of suited Ks, any pair, JTs+…?

I might consider calling it off against the player you describe if I’m on the button, but even then I think I value my stack to much to call and wait for a more clear spot. Sorry if this comes off as a lazy but answer it seems thin and losing sacrifices a lot of playability of your stack. What hands do you want to see villian have here? Even KQ isn’t great, exactly A2-A7 I guess.

Another question: Did you see the BB’s stack before you raised? Did you have a plan if he shoved? It might be a reason to not open A8s for middle position for example. Thoughts?

3for3
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March 1, 2020 - 4:42 pm
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Couldn’t be the button since there were 2 callers in between.  I was UTG +1.  This makes my range stronger which of course makes his range stronger.

I was aware of his stack.  I was clearly going to fold if it was just my own money in there.  The extra 4.6 BB got me to shove, plus that widened his range, too.

MovieFX
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March 2, 2020 - 2:01 pm
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First, let me say  I would not open this hand from UTG+1 in most situations. Maybe a passive deep table…? If there is any aggression or re-shove possible, then this seems like throwing away chips to me. I think the rest of this post is me trying to prove that this is not an open.

I missed the callers, and knowing your position brings up some more points: 

  • Is villain position-aware or is he “making a play because there is dead money”. In other words, are you leveling past them with this thinking?
  • If villain is good, then what is your image to villain? A squeeze can be light if the player is good and thinks you are opening too wide (like you are), since if it gets through you, it probably gets through the others. Villain still needs to have a range that makes sense and since you are calling here, you have to have an advantage over it.  Note I left off my own range-construction on purpose here.
  • Is the first caller also in early position? That has as much bearing since most people will not 3-bet UTG+1 from UTG+2 with a very wide range. So, again, if villain is good, and both the original open and the first caller are in EP, then the shove should be an even tighter range.

I guess what I’m saying is that there are a ton of factors to first figure out the GTO move (I’m still a beginner here, but learning). If we assuming we are somewhat indifferent from a theory perspective then there is a lot going on at the table to help deviate from that, and that information is something only you have at the table, so hard to comment on. That said…

My guess is 1. that we are not indifferent, 2. this is not an open, and 3. this is not a call. …but If anyone can jump in here and help me re-word or re-work any of this in to more concrete game theory terms I would appreciate the learning opportunity.

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