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Deep SM - high variance 3bet shove or low variance fold
florianm1
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August 31, 2015 - 9:49 am
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hey folks,

we re deep in the sunday million. 34 people left i have slightly less than average stack.

villain is playing 29/18 on 28hands. he has raised from a <20BB stack 2/2
with an ABI of 19$ he has a roi of 60% on 9k gmaes. so he learly knows what he is doing.

i am 32/32 with 3b of 14% out of the SB i have attacked 50% of all steals from CO/BTN.

BB is a good reg that has multiple SM final tables under his belt. he is playing fairly tight and taright forward up to this point (18/11).

i run the hand on holdemresources and with the default assigned ranges it is slightly +EV about 0.4BB

but i think the assigned ranges for CO to open are way to tight.

i guess he opens something like:
https://gyazo.com/c1586184cf2b8afc59a2e4918586bc94

and calls:
https://gyazo.com/17c2d418d6cb92d75ae21a8dd33fa95a

and BB calls with:
https://gyazo.com/cd3f3509fa2db452579e5b75a8abee4b

with these ranges reshoving A9o is +1.58BB +EV

here is the hand:
***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em – Sunday, August 30, 11:16:08 ET 2015
Table 1297815667 447 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 1736390 ) – VPIP: 18, PFR: 18, 3B: 20, AF: 0.0, Hands: 28
Seat 2: Player2 ( 833900 ) – VPIP: 13, PFR: 13, 3B: 4, AF: 0.0, Hands: 71
Seat 3: Player3 ( 1073742 ) – VPIP: 23, PFR: 15, 3B: 9, AF: 1.0, Hands: 73
Seat 4: Player4 ( 1394226 ) – VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 5
Seat 5: Hero ( 1345933 ) – VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 2.3, Hands: 491421
Seat 6: Player6 ( 1700664 ) – VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 2.4, Hands: 325
Seat 7: Player7 ( 1017747 ) – VPIP: 20, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 5
Seat 8: Player8 ( 784974 ) – VPIP: 16, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 2.0, Hands: 70
Seat 9: Player9 ( 2246602 ) – VPIP: 14, PFR: 14, 3B: 11, AF: 2.0, Hands: 44
Player1 posts ante of [6000].
Player2 posts ante of [6000].
Player3 posts ante of [6000].
Player4 posts ante of [6000].
Hero posts ante of [6000].
Player6 posts ante of [6000].
Player7 posts ante of [6000].
Player8 posts ante of [6000].
Player9 posts ante of [6000].
Hero posts small blind [30000].
Player6 posts big blind [60000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9s Ah ]
Player7 folds
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 folds
Player3 raises [120000]
Player4 folds
Hero ???

what do you think about ranges?
do you make this play that deep in the SM?

cheers

florianm1
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September 2, 2015 - 9:43 am
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anyone?

joelshitshow
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September 4, 2015 - 8:48 pm
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I didn’t reply because I wanted to learn, too. Let me say some stupid things, and then someone can tell me I’m wrong, helping you in the process 🙂

V is paying attention, you say. That would mean he would notice 14% 3-bet from the SB. That’s high, isn’t it? So if you 3-bet here, he’s going to feel comfortable shoving somewhat wider. If you 3-bet to 5BB and he shoves for 16BB, are you going to call off with 11BB? Is that worth the risk of only having 4BB after the hand?

Do the other tables have any super-short stacks? No one at your table is about to bust, that much we know.

GunnJD
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September 5, 2015 - 8:03 am
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If I’m reading this right, CO vs SB ~15bb effective? 

I think we are shoving here all day and feeling pretty good about it. Knowing that he is a winning reg type player makes me want to shove even more. He’s going to fold enough, and sometimes call with worse.

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