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(1 votes) 
March 29, 2013
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last 60 out 5635 runners in the big $11 on Stars 7k for 1st place.
blinds 6000/12000 already 31,500 in the pot
short stack player jams from mp with 80k stack ( player had been very tight not seen him play 1 hand) total pot now 112k
we have pocket 5s on the BB and a stack of 260k
so its 68k call to win a 112k pot out out my 260k stack getting 1.64:1 what would you do ?
December 30, 2015
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Isn’t it actually 100k to win 212K pot? About 47% equity needed to break even? What ranges and equity are you looking at? I suspect it is right around break-even. That is before ICM though. I’m not sure it is worth the risk.
June 2, 2013
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I am lost, isn´t 68k for a 170k pot? (68k + 112k) for 40% equity?
Assuming a 40% range Hero have 51.98% to win the hand. (22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+) … For a tighter range, 30% hero still have 51.67% to win (22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo).
Now, what math is correct? I need to study that, I forget to fast.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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almofadinhas said
I am lost, isn´t 68k for a 170k pot? (68k + 112k) for 40% equity?Assuming a 40% range Hero have 51.98% to win the hand. (22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+) … For a tighter range, 30% hero still have 51.67% to win (22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo).
Now, what math is correct? I need to study that, I forget to fast.
This looks correct to me (the pot odds calculation), thanks for actually posting some ranges. Folding with 52% equity here would be a pretty big mistake IMO, you aren’t even that close to the final table.
Jam, I know you’ve made some other posts recently asking what you need to study, and this could be a good place to start. Your OP suggests to me that you are missing some pretty basic concepts for evaluating a situation like this:
What exactly does “MP” mean? Exactly how many players were left to act after Villain shoved? It makes a big difference to his shoving range.
You hadn’t seen him play a hand, but how many had he had an opportunity to play? Someone who folds his first 12 hands is telling you a lot less than someone who folds his first 40.
Your first approach to any pre-flop call-or-fold spot like this should be to look your equity vs some possible ranges. Almo’s post is a good example of something you should be in the habit of doing routinely.
March 29, 2013
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MP whats this means >>> Middle position .
It was clear to me he was short stacked so he was sitting waiting for a spot to push so i put him on a range of something like
55+,a7s+,k9s+,q10s+j9s+,910s,98s,a9o+ and qko
so i make this out i have around 40% equity vs this range with 55 and I was costing me 68k to call to win a 112k pot
so based on this information , would you have called then yes or no?
Foucault IMO this is a clear call however i just wanted to check with you guys if you thought other wize and yes i do need to study but more equity calculations based on 15-20 bb shoving ranges .. if you have 40% isnt that a clear call because we need at least 40% to break even ?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I understand what MP stands for, but it doesn’t tell me his exact position at the table. With 5 players to act behind him, he can shove more hands than with 6 players to act behind him. In either case, his range should be a lot wider than what you posted there. With 6 players behind him, his optimal jamming range is something like {22+,A2s+,A4o+,K6s+,KTo+,Q9s+,QTo+,J9s+,T8s+,98s}.
If you think he’s jamming much, much tighter than that (the range you gave), then I would fold rather than make a break-even call. But I’d be surprised if he’s as tight as your range suggests. You really think he’s going to fold a pair? Or a suited Ace? Or KJo?
March 29, 2013
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i did say 55+ a7s+ but your range makes more sense yes
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December 6, 2012
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MR_JAM said
i did say 55+ a7s+ but your range makes more sense yes
Right, that implies that he is folding some pairs (22-44) and some suited Aces (A2s-A6s).
December 30, 2015
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almofadinhas said
I am lost, isn´t 68k for a 170k pot? (68k + 112k) for 40% equity?
Yeah, thanks for the correction. I must have been posting late at night again.
I may not be shoving wide enough but I don’t have many 9x or Tx hands and very few Jx. I was thinking more like:
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| J9s+,A2s+,A5,A9+,22+ | 56.75% | 670,345,782 | 23,608,008 |
| 55 | 43.25% | 508,083,618 | 23,608,008 |
My gut was fold but 66 would be close. Of course my “gut” is calibrated to my ranges, which may be off. Here is same range against 77:
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| J9s+,A2s+,A5,A9+,22+ | 48.81% | 617,608,767 | 18,563,124 |
| 77 | 51.19% | 648,056,109 | 18,563,124 |
I’m probably shoving some medium-high suited connectors from the BTN or CU, but not MP. j9s is at the very bottom and situational (depending on table dynamics…how tight LP and blinds Vs are). Default, I’m probably not shoving lower than QJs and K9s. I may be too tight though.
March 29, 2013
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aye looking back i think i should have just folded there.
this is a leak in my game i feel i tend to make to many 15-20 bbs jam call out my stack with PP and at best your are 50/50.
I was and would have continued to pick up more pot with making these calls
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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MR_JAM said
aye looking back i think i should have just folded there.this is a leak in my game i feel i tend to make to many 15-20 bbs jam call out my stack with PP and at best your are 50/50.
Why do you think you should have folded? “At best you are 50/50” is really not a helpful way of thinking about the situation. For one thing, folding 50% equity here would be a big mistake. Your equity vs V’s whole range is what matters, and FWIW his range probably does contain some hands, such as smaller pairs, that you dominate, but that’s neither here nor there. Several people, including myself, have posted reasonable shoving ranges against which you have a clear call.
November 18, 2014
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I think this is a fold too and I think this is what MR_JAM is refering to.
We have 50% equity agains teh wider range we can come up with. That means even if our judgement is perfect and we’ve narrowed his range we are breaking even. MR_JAM seems to have had the read that the player was tight, or on the tigher side so it is quite possible he isn’t as wide, but quite unlikely he is wider.
On that prospect I would say the best line of action is fold, we can either be breaking even or be ev-, we are never ev+ in this spot, so it feels like the most reasonable option is to fold. If we had 77 or 88 which are actually EV+ against the wider range then maybe we can call, but with 55 I too feel this is a fold.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Calling with 50% is not breaking even, it is significantly +EV.
November 18, 2014
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Sorry, I didn’t realize this was a less than 6BB push. There was a comment saying 15-20BB so I assumed this was a 20BB push which makes the calculations completely different.
For a 6BB with antes and around 50% equity this is an easy call. We need to put 5BB to win 14BB which gives us around 30% equity needed to break even. I thought this was put 19BB to win 42BB which is close to 50% equity needed to make the call.
May 1, 2016
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I think one of the most important parts of this whole situation hasn’t really been mentioned until the last post. Our villain is pushing 6 bigs here. 6. One thing I have noticed, especially in the lower buy in tournaments, that a villain with less than 8 big blinds has among the widest ranges you’ll ever see. You said he was a tighter player, but Foucalt is right. Tight over what sample? 15 hands? 30? 100? I know I have (and I’m sure you guys have too) folded as many as 60 or 70 hands in a row in the most dire of times, even while shortstacked, because you’re so incredibly card dead, and every marginal hand that might be a shove situation (e.g. K9s OTB) seems to find itself against an UTG riase and UTG+1 3 bet.
Regardless, I think this is a clear call unless you have a very specific read on the villain and/or you’re incredibly, incredibly deep where the pay jumps are so significant and there are many shortstacked blow you in the rankins.
Also, you only have a little over twenty bigs. You need chips, and soon. I doubt you’ll find a better opportunity than 6 BBs to win more than 10.
I know you’d be scared of seeing 88 when the cards come up. But IMO (without a read), there is just as good (if not a greater) chance that the villain shows you a pair that has you dominated than a hand you dominate yourself (A3s, 33, etc). Add in all the other times when it is at WORST 50/50 (and a little better in some situations, eg. A6o) this has to be a call all day. You’re trying to win, right?
June 2, 2013
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MR_JAM said
aye looking back i think i should have just folded there.this is a leak in my game i feel i tend to make to many 15-20 bbs jam call out my stack with PP and at best your are 50/50.
I was and would have continued to pick up more pot with making these calls
50/50 are profitable here because there is dead money in the pot (blinds and antes from other players), so even this is a flip, is profitable.
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