Hey Hawk-

Interesting spot….This is where I may even fold this hand pre especially w/o antes just so we aren't in this spot on later streets.  The only reason I open this imo is when I am prepared to call the villain's 3 bet shove with 12bb.  Other than that I don't see value in just stealing the blinds at this level (especially on merge when stacks are so shallow).

I think that with the way played however, I c bet this flop everytime with both my air and paired ace hands.  I probably only c bet about 40% pot for both value/information.  He may be floating a lot of c bets, but if he is I want to get value for him doing so.  I would re evaluate turn after his float, but by betting smaller on the flop, you are setting up a smaller double barrell.  By leading turn, I don't know what we are repping and don't know what worse hands call?  Maybe we rep aq, qq, JJ, 1010, but would we lead turn with these hands? The sizing also seems a little bit much bloating the pot.  On the river, I don't think he is ever bluffing here…I can easily put kqss in his range a bunch.  I just don't think we are ever good here especially with the villain's lack of fold equity and he is obviously not afraid of you having the flush.  With the river play, I may even check here to see what he does.  We do have showdown value with the ace and we may have him fire a bluff on the river.  I think at this point all we are beating is a bluff, so I don't see much value betting river unless we have a flush, but again if we have the fd on prior street(s) and I am the villain it would make more sense out of you to see a c/r on flop or even semi bluffing flop with the c bet and then checking turn when missing.  I hope that this helps….so what did you do?  Best of luck at the tables.

If the flop was rainbow, I can see check calling, but with this flop you MUST Cbet, if he flats the cbet thats ok, fire again on turn. If hes decent I figure hes 3betting better aces pre, so he either flopped a set, has a flush draw here, or maybe has a small piece of the flop…I agree with the other posts that the lead and sizing on the turn isnt best. And I feel you should be making this size bet on the river if you had a bigger hand than top pair to induce this shove, but with such a vulnerable hand against a player who knows this blocker bet is weak, it is easy for him to rep the flush here…

Personally, I think WP up until river, which is a ck/call.

hawkeyeK9 said:

andinista said:

Personally, I think WP up until river, which is a ck/call.

Definitely interested in your thoughts on why? It felt like a good play in the moment but when I had to fold the river I couldnt justify any of it.

By delaying your cbet a street you pot control and underrep your hand, which I think we should be looking to get two postflop streets of value with. Leading the turn is good so we're not giving a free card and I feel he will check back turn very often. He can float such a broad range on turn when this line is taken- Arag, Qx, flush draws, straight draws. Then ck/decide on rivers, leaning heavily towards calls against this guy.

I struggled with FkCoolers statement that we are never betting turn with a flush draw, because I do take the ck/call bet turn line with flush draws often without initiative. But he's right because here I would always cbet or ck/rs a flush draw on the flop.

And I absolutely hate the river lead/blocker bet, you're begging to get bluffed off the winning hand by a good aggressive opponent. Should I have the same concern about our turn lead? IDK, for some reason seems less likely to me but really unsure.