Shove and get called, .2949 equity stack = 25,900, p = .0664 range = 99+ ATs+ AJo+
Shove and get folds, stack = 15,200 p= .9336
Fold, Stack = 11,500 p = 1

.2949 x 25900 x .0664 = 507.16 
15,200 x .9336 = 14190.72 
14697.88 against fold stack of 11500 nets 

3197.87 chips


Adding QQ+ adds 18 hands with a probability of idk 20% (for reverse tells?), adds 3.6 combos of hands to 88 instead of 18. Thats actually only .2% of hands, so like I guess it doesn't effect it much. If you see players do this regularly with weak hands, (when it comes up, they don't have strong hands), then it follows that unless a villain who is capable of adding the reverse tell in sometimes, it's still +ev. That's just because people do it with weak hands on accident, signalling their range. Even if it could mean both ranges, it's probably going to be a weak range a majority of the time if you see this that often.

Okay so yah I don't know. I wasn't expecting it at face value to be this profitable, but I don't know. I'm all about constructing a range, and it's just hard for me to accept that 100% of hands works here.

About half of the live poker I've played has taken place in the last year, so these things are still new to me. But I think I'm learning something here haha. Range work is still what's taking place, it's just that the button defines his range as weak with a high probability in that exact observation. Interesting.

Initially, my gut 3b shove range here is 30% of hands, which has higher equity against a calling range, the same fold equity, and doing the math just now, it comes out to a difference in profit of only 100 chips. Risk of busto is so low. It's less than 7%...so that means every time it's passed on, with the equity of .29, it's passing on something +2bb in EV. 
I think now I'm all about this. Math, you win.

To be honest, I'm not sure 100%. Do you follow the math that I wrote out? Because based on that, if your read on the situation is 100% or if it's mixed, as long as you quantify that information, you can do it yourself and see profitability. 

I don't think spots like these are necessarily obvious. A lot of players still fold or play flop dependent incorrectly way too much at these stack sizes. Especiallly live. I can't believe how many decent to strong players I see that just approach <20bb game way too casually. There's math. You can solve it. You can even solve adjustments for those players that have solved it as well. I had said approach this spot with a range of whatever. If button folds 100% of the time and bb calls with the range I gave him (giving him 18 more combos would shift things 66-88 that i didn't include, but not by enough), then shoving any two cards is profitable by about two big blinds.

Think about it. If you see 5 cards only 9% of the time, meaning you get folds 91% of the time, it doesn't matter what you have. I just don't want to discredit taking this spot. Even increasing bb's calling range takes a bit because we have 2bb in dead money out there from the assumed to be folded button.