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January 5, 2015
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So there are some weird dynamnics in this hand and I really would just like to know if the move I made was standard or not given all the variables.
Here are some facts:
1. This is a 2 Day, 9 flight tournament. The Top 14 from this flight go to Day Two.
2. We are at 15 People currently
3. And here is the thing: currently the blinds are 1000-2000-300 but on Day 2 they go back down to 500-1000-100 to start Day 2 (this is because another flight finished earlier than us so everyone starts at the earliest flight). So this is essentially a free double up if you make it to Day 2.
4. My current stack is 44k – so 22 bigs at this blind level (and 44 if i just coast to Day 2).
5. V is on BTN and has about 80-90k. Recent hand I saw him in: he raised from CO to 3500 out of his 60k stack vs UTG limper and MP limper when blinds were 800-1600-200. Board came K-6-2-4-Q and he called 3/4 pot size bets on flop and 3/4 pot size bet on turn with K9s!
On to this hand – ok so, V raises from BTN to 7k. I have T
T
in BB. My options seem like this:
a. Fold – this seems wrong and nitty as hell. BUT is there any merit to folding due to the structure here? I.e. just playing to get to Day 2 and take the auto-double up rather than gambling?
b. Call – this seems bad in any scenario as I am not deep enough to set mine if i think I am beat and I will be playing out of position and any board is going to be hard to play.
c. 3 bet to like 15k and shove flop – seems awful
d. 3 bet Shove – seems best not considering the Day 2 thing with the blinds going back down. But if we take into consideration the Day 2 incentive should we just be playing this a satellite – like everyone in Top 14 basically gets a free double up in chips against everyone else in every flight?
How much of an incentive is that day 2 thing? Or am I drastically over-thinking this dynamic and I should just make the 3 bet anf GII here?
A quick note regarding his sizing. I really did not know what to make of it. Betting 3.5x could have been a signal that it was a big hand but it also could have been a signal that it was not and he was stealing. V did not seem super savvy but he was not a fish at all. He was 30yr old white guy. Seemed ok, nothing fancy but I was not playing with him all that long (was just moved a bit prior).
I would love to hear yout thoughts on this hand and the dynamics of this structure. The local casino here does this structure frequently and I am consistently debating with myself how to play in this structure. The free double up does seem like its worth tighhtening up for BUT how much?
Thanks for your thoughts
April 10, 2015
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You are basically in the bubble of a satellite. You should have a monster equity to get involved in this hand against a aggressive chip leader. You shouldn’t call to reevaluate. I would fold
February 5, 2015
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OOP with 10 10, I think its tough to call as he should be C-betting and maybe 2 barrelling most of the time here.
It comes down to whether or not you've seen him 3.5x in the past in my opinion.
Does he have it or does not have it. The fact he is on the button makes it less believable that he has it but he seems to be in position to take advantage of the dynamics. To put it another way, every pot he wins is also doubling up after the bubble so the incentive to steal goes WAY up.
IF you think he is raising 3.5x beecause he simply wants to steal, then I shove and hope he doesnt call lightly and suck out on you.
IF you think there is a chance he actually has a hand and is afraid of losing with it (hence the 3.5x bet) then a fold is fine here I think. Given everything that's going on. How big are the other stacks at the table? Is there a super shorty on the bubble? 40BB to start day 2 is pretty nice, and you're only losing 1BB here, even though it's worth 2BB the next day.
I think 10s are crushing his range MOST of the time. In addition, your reshove with a decent fold equity here (he knows you're not shoving lightly) gives you a chance to chip up some more going into Day 2 and be in a better position to make a run. I think calling here out of position is the worst thing you can do though unless you plan on shoving on a low board (usually an overcard or two will flop).
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Easy shove. You are massively overestimating the significance of making Day 2. Lowering the blinds is not at all the same thing as a “free double up”. If you are a better deep-stacked player than your opponents, it may slightly increase your EV in the tournament, but it can't increase everyone's EV.
January 5, 2015
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Foucaut: (the quote and reply thing is not working)
“Easy shove. You are massively overestimating the significance of making Day 2. Lowering the blinds is not at all the same thing as a “free double up”. If you are a better deep-stacked player than your opponents, it may slightly increase your EV in the tournament, but it can’t increase everyone’s EV.”
Interesting. Let me make sure I am undertstanding you Andrew –
So essentially the “free double up” as I put it would certainly be worth more if it was ONLY me getting it (e.g. in a hand) but everyone is getting it (and some may get more if their flights last longer) and this neutralizes (or at least diminsihes) any significant +EV situation to a point where not really considering its effect on my current decision is the most prudent approach to this format?
In this hand. I felt like this was the best approach and shoved. He had QQ and I went home praying that online poker comes back to Maryland because the variance in Live MTTs is killing my motivation – and I can’t play live poker in my boxers.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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wager9 said:
Foucaut: (the quote and reply thing is not working)
“Easy shove. You are massively overestimating the significance of making Day 2. Lowering the blinds is not at all the same thing as a “free double up”. If you are a better deep-stacked player than your opponents, it may slightly increase your EV in the tournament, but it can't increase everyone's EV.”Interesting. Let me make sure I am undertstanding you Andrew –
So essentially the “free double up” as I put it would certainly be worth more if it was ONLY me getting it (e.g. in a hand) but everyone is getting it (and some may get more if their flights last longer) and this neutralizes (or at least diminsihes) any significant +EV situation to a point where not really considering its effect on my current decision is the most prudent approach to this format?In this hand. I felt like this was the best approach and shoved. He had QQ and I went home praying that online poker comes back to Maryland because the variance in Live MTTs is killing my motivation – and I can't play live poker in my boxers.
You're not getting anything, and neither is anyone else. The blinds are going down, chips aren't being added to your stack. If you were playing a $2/$4 cash game with a $200 stack, and suddenly the blinds changed to $1/$2, how much would your stack be worth?
January 5, 2015
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Foucault said:
wager9 said:
Foucaut: (the quote and reply thing is not working)
“Easy shove. You are massively overestimating the significance of making Day 2. Lowering the blinds is not at all the same thing as a “free double up”. If you are a better deep-stacked player than your opponents, it may slightly increase your EV in the tournament, but it can't increase everyone's EV.”Interesting. Let me make sure I am undertstanding you Andrew –
So essentially the “free double up” as I put it would certainly be worth more if it was ONLY me getting it (e.g. in a hand) but everyone is getting it (and some may get more if their flights last longer) and this neutralizes (or at least diminsihes) any significant +EV situation to a point where not really considering its effect on my current decision is the most prudent approach to this format?In this hand. I felt like this was the best approach and shoved. He had QQ and I went home praying that online poker comes back to Maryland because the variance in Live MTTs is killing my motivation – and I can't play live poker in my boxers.
You're not getting anything, and neither is anyone else. The blinds are going down, chips aren't being added to your stack. If you were playing a $2/$4 cash game with a $200 stack, and suddenly the blinds changed to $1/$2, how much would your stack be worth?
Hmm…I do see your point in that in a cash game it would still be valued at $200 regardless. But something feels different and I can not put a finger on it I guess. Like…you are implying that that $200 stack is the same value regardless of the blinds – which it is. BUT (and for the sake of this example, let's assume this is the last $200 you will ever have to your name)…if all of a sudden (for whatever reason) we are playing ONE single hand at $100-$200 and then going abck down to $1/$2…it's a whole new ballgame no? I mean, your stack is still worth $200 total at both blind levels but you have one big blind and your risk of ruin is high. Let's say in this $100-$200 example game you are on the button and the CO raises to $500 and you have something like A-9s or whatever and your opponent accidentally flashes his cards and you see that has KQs. Is it right to gamble knowing that the very next hand you are going to be back down to $1/ $2 and have 100 bigs (and your last $200). It's worth $200 in both scenarios but if you bust in that hand you will miss out on a lot of 100 big blind play.
I did make my example a bit over the top with the numbers, but only to illustrate the point that it seems like there has to be some value in the blinds going down. What am I missing?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Poker is a zero-sum game. The size of the prize pool isn't changing, so lowering the blinds can't benefit everyone. That doesn't mean everyone benfits equally. Better deep-stacked players will gain a bit from the increased stack depth, at the expense of those who play best with shallow stacks. Also the shortest-stacked players probably benefit from this, at the expense of those with the biggest stacks.
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